The Title Race - 2021/22

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Still very confident that my prediction of 80-84 points will be enough. Can’t see Liverpool getting close to 90, especially if they progress in CL and decide to prioritise that.
 
David El Mago Silva said:
Chelsea are probably out of it now but Liverpool are very much still a threat.

If they win their game in hand, the gap is 8 points.

If they beat us at our place, the gap is 5 points.

And then there's still 15 other games to play.

Liverpool would then need to overturn a 5 point gap with 45 points still to play for.

Definitely not over yet.
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But we don't play the Scousers until the 9th April, then there is only 6 more games to play. So they would need to go on an unbelievable run to catch us and this current side leaks too many goals imo.
 
If the Dippers were to match their current points per game for the rest of the season they would finish with 81 points, even if they somehow matched our current points per game of 2.55 they would finish on 88 points.

So if we say 89 points to be on the safe side we would need 33 points from our last 16 games, so 11 more wins would do it.

The reality is 9 wins would likely be enough.
 
tolmie's hairdoo said:
Nowhere close to being over. Even another loss brings Liverpool back into the rear view mirror and need to break the back of next three games.
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Agree, and the beautiful thing is pep, staff and players know that and they only seem to look ahead to the next game. The past few matches I’ve been telling my boys the next game is crucial, but the Saints game is in my mind properly crucial, given Liverpool play the next day, Southampton always make me twitch for some reason and the winter break afterwards.
But I love that we have a full week to prepare for it, whereas Liverpool have a tough fixture on Thursday.
 
I predict we’ll finish on 94 points after 12 more wins, 2 more draws and 2 more defeats. Liverpool on around 84. That’s my guess. To be safe, I’ll say high 80’s would be enough. Let’s say 88 ish to be absolutely certain, with a little wiggle room. So we can afford to fail to win roughly 6-8 more games, depending on the split of draws and losses. And that’s probably 7-9 in reality with the conservatism in selecting 88 to be certain. Out of 16 remaining games we can afford to win only half of them and would probably still scrape the league, if we had more draws than defeats.
 
Most the scousers can get is 96 points, including beating us. We therefore need to focus on making sure we get at least 97 which means two losses, one of which would be against them, assuming every other game is a win. If we make it to the later stages of the CL or FA cup, we'd want to keep that loss in our pocket until things are really stretched which means we need to keep winning now.

I'll celebrate an 8 point lead when there's two games left.
 
It's funny with posters who come on here to say "it's not done yet, don't get complacent" as if Pep's gonna be scrolling through the forum and go, 'MCFC302942 reckons the leagues over so we're gonna play the reserves for our remaining 16 games'.
 
Manchester33 said:
It's funny with posters who come on here to say "it's not done yet, don't get complacent" as if Pep's gonna be scrolling through the forum and go, 'MCFC302942 reckons the leagues over so we're gonna play the reserves for our remaining 16 games'.
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That it's not done yet is pretty obvious. Pep has repeated a thousand times now how things may change: e.g., from 4:0 to 4:3 within 15 minutes. How many City fans thought that was possible to happen back then, given that we had conceded just 9 goals over 18 games before that. Nobody!

When people think it's done, they think that we won't have bad injuries, bad luck, bad refereeing decisions, a bad covid outbreak, etc. etc. The point is nobody can rule such things out. They are not likely, but that's the thing: the unlikely happens pretty often. How likely was before the start of the previous season that Gundogan was going to be our top scorer and we would be just 3 wins off winning the quadruple? Absolutely nobody expect it! It was highly unlikely. But it happened. How likely was that Liverpool would lose 6 games in a row at home? Highly unlikely, but it happened, etc. etc.

Stay calm and humble, and enjoy this incredible team. We can be happy about the season without thinking the league is done, can't we?
 
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Getting flashbacks to last season already, don't know if it's better or worse that it's Liverpool & not United...
 
If Liverpool win their game in hand the gap is 8 points with 48 points to play for so it's not over.

I think we have KO'd Chelsea. Tuchel didn't set them up to even try and beat us so psychologically they look beaten. Liverpool are still in it.
 
I’ve just been reading a Danny Murphy article of how good Liverpool are and how they can hunt us down and how they nearly beat us to the league a couple of years ago (yawn)
I’ve not seen much about how professional we were dispatching Chelsea and ending their bid
We just need to keep the pressure on ans win the next 3 or 4 and we will be double figures clear of them then
Then watch then start whinging as usual
 
Will only be over after the game against them in April whoever wins that will go on to win the league, 8 points is nothing, if they beat us in April it would be 5, they may well be closer than that before then.
 
Still maintain that we'll get at least 90 points (and just 90 would mean a pretty big drop in form), meaning that Liverpool will need to win 15 of their last 17 just to equal our tally

I can't see any way this amazing team would fuck things up
 
alexmcity said:
That it's not done yet is pretty obvious. Pep has repeated a thousand times now how things may change: e.g., from 4:0 to 4:3 within 15 minutes. How many City fans thought that was possible to happen back then, given that we had conceded just 9 goals over 18 games before that. Nobody!

When people think it's done, they think that we won't have bad injuries, bad luck, bad refereeing decisions, a bad covid outbreak, etc. etc. The point is nobody can rule such things out. They are not likely, but that's the thing: the unlikely happens pretty often. How likely was before the start of the previous season that Gundogan was going to be our top scorer and we would be just 3 wins off winning the quadruple? Absolutely nobody expect it! It was highly unlikely. But it happened. How likely was that Liverpool would lose 6 games in a row at home? Highly unlikely, but it happened, etc. etc.

Stay calm and humble, and enjoy this incredible team. We can be happy about the season without thinking the league is done, can't we?
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Across the course of a season everyone has bad decisions, injuries etc. It's very rare that it doesn't happen (although Liverpool's last league win was a good example). We have the best squad in the league, so we will deal with the hurdles better than our opposition. We'd need to be consecutively unlucky across 5 or 6 games, whilst Liverpool are perfect, for them to catch us. We might get unlucky, but Liverpool aren't good enough to go the rest of the season unbeaten, they will drop points, and that's why the league is, in my opinion, as good as done.
 
it's in the media's narrative to say Liverpool can chase City down and win the league. think we'll see Liverpool built up even more than normal over the next 4-6 games.
 
Manchester33 said:
Across the course of a season everyone has bad decisions, injuries etc. It's very rare that it doesn't happen (although Liverpool's last league win was a good example). We have the best squad in the league, so we will deal with the hurdles better than our opposition. We'd need to be consecutively unlucky across 5 or 6 games, whilst Liverpool are perfect, for them to catch us. We might get unlucky, but Liverpool aren't good enough to go the rest of the season unbeaten, they will drop points, and that's why the league is, in my opinion, as good as done.
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Liverpool went from 60+ league games unbeaten at Anfield to 6 consecutive losses within weeks. We know from our own experience things can go south quickly, e.g. 19/20 when we had to play both Ferna and Rodri at CB and went from 98 pts to 81 pts.

Our squad is high quality, but it's not big. Injuries to Rodri and Cancelo and we'd struggle to field strong teams twice in a week.

Those who think it's done, are free to bet their houses and cars on the title. Wonder how many would do it, though.
 
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