The Title Race - 2021/22

[Corky]

We were 10 points behind and still lost at Newcastle but won by a point.

Hot-hand fallacy here with these stats thrown up, rather looking at individual games and what happened.

 

[Deleted member 81382]

It’s not that it’s not possible, it’s that it requires virtual perfection for the chasers, WHILE City lose 3 or 4 MORE games than they do!

If we beat Chelsea, one has to believe they’re only looking at a CL position. From here, all we have to do is NOT lose 3 more games than Liverpool. They MUST WIN the head to head game at our place, or else that makes it 4 more they have to win!

Considering we have played 4th place twice already and have most of the rest of the top clubs at home, we are in a very strong, albeit not unassailable, lead.

The fat lady hasn’t even entered the building yet, let alone warmed up or started singing!

However, if we can get through the next 10 games (to 30) with a 5-8 point gap, it starts getting harder and harder for them, and the permutations become smaller and smaller.

11 games of perfection have created this gap, while LiVARpool and Chelski have faltered. From here, they need DOUBLE THAT level of perfection and we still need to lose more games than we have in the first half of the season!

There will be a shock result or two, and we are perfectly capable of those, but so are they.

Early doors, but I’d rather by Blue than Red or a Cockney tonight!!!

As you say, there's a flip side to the scenario I presented where we actually win the head to head games with Chelsea and Liverpool (equally possible) and then it really would be game over.

 

[MCFCFanTX]

Let's continue to take it one game at a time. While I'm optimistic, anything can happen. We're an injury, covid crisis, etc away from being vulnerable (like any other team).

Still, I'd rather be 10 points clear than 10 points behind!

 

[HolisticJim]

Chelsea are currently 10 points behind us and we play them next. Let's say we lose which isn't beyond the realms of possibility, they'll be 7 points behind us with 48 points still to play for. We'd still be in a strong position but bigger turnarounds have happened and at a far later stage in the season, namely 2011/12.

Liverpool are 11 points behind us with a game in hand. Let's say in the next round of fixtures we lose to Chelsea and Liverpool beat Brentford, both results hardly impossible, that makes it 8 points. Let's also assume for arguments sake that Liverpool win their game in hand to make it 5 points. Finally, we still have to play them later in the season and if we were to lose it would be 2 points.

Admittedly these are the worst case scenarios where everything goes against us but I don't think those results are that unrealistic. We also have to factor in the latter stages of the Champions League and potential absences due to injury or covid. Of course these apply to Liverpool and Chelsea just as much as they apply to us but we don't know how those three factors will impact on the rest of our respective seasons.

Having said all that, I am actually pretty confident we'll see it through but there's still a long way to go.

The same equation has run through my mind. This is very far from done. It could very easily slip away.

We need to be careful how we go and we really could do with beating Chelski

 

[Badensbluemoon]

I don't want to go ahead of myself but I think we play the most attractive football in England

 

[bluebanana83]

I don't want to go ahead of myself but I think we play the most attractive football in England

Welcome to the party pal!

 

[vmsuhail]

We are the greatest team English football has ever seen, with one of the finest managers of all time.
We are NOT going to throw away an 8 point lead.

I remember the Caf saying the same in 2012 - Ferguson will not allow an 8 point lead slip.

 

[Badensbluemoon]

I remember the Caf saying the same in 2012 - Ferguson will not allow an 8 point lead slip.

The ragcaf??? They are in pain and please make it last a long time...but yeah...just like Pep pointed out....still many points to play for

 

[Coatigan]

Yeah both the other two clubs have become something of flat track bullies this season. Liverpool have looked bad in every tough game bar two, and Chelsea have been here and there.



This past month alone could have killed the other two teams' seasons. City's worst ever form under Pep was the start of last season where we got 20/36 point, which is roughly equivalent to Liverpool's last month.

That means that if Liverpool or Chelsea pick up steam we'd have to drop to a very low historical standard for them to catch us. The only exception would be if either Liverpool or Chelsea go on a monstrous run and we dip, and even though Liverpool have done it before, they don't seem to have that capability this season.

It isn't even about the permutations and ifs and buts. Do I think we will win it, of course I do. Is the league done, is it fuck.

If we were within 8 points behind, on the second of january, I wouldn't be writing us off, I'd go as far as fancying our chances.

Calling the league over on the 2nd of january is just fucking stupid. And entitled. Don't bother watching any more then, go on the piss. Calling people idiots or liverpool fans for refusing to call it over, is just being an arsehole.

 

[EL APACHE TEVEZ]

The best thing about it,we’ve not been playing well but winning games true Mark of champions.