The Title Race - 2021/22

[blue b4 the moon]

At 1/12 you'll not find many poor bookies....that being said it's not over yet but we'd even with the above results going against us need to fuck up on a monumental level.

 

[bluemoon32]

No we lost it because for the first in a meaningful game (ie not early rounds of cups) Pep didn't start with either Rodri or Fernandinho

Let's be honest, if someone had posted that on here prior to the game then they'd be called out as a know nothing ****......then Pep actually does it ha

 

[petrusha]

There's a reason why the bookies have us long odds-on and why the statistical models also make us overwhelming favourites. That said, we can't count it as done until we rack up the necessary points.

On our form so far this season, we're on course for 96 points. Even if, from now on, we averaged 2 points per game (which works out as 76 points over a season, so is a serious drop-off), we'd end up with 87 points. That would require Liverpool to show form equating to 97 points over a full season to overtake us and Chelsea would have to pick up a tally equating to 101 points in a full campaign.

Liverpool in particular have done similar before, but they look more fallible now than a couple of years ago when they were showing that type of form regularly. So we're in a great position - but the onus is on us to keep racking up the points.

If at some point, we were to win one, draw two and lose one in a sequence of four matches and one or both of the others won all of theirs in the same period, you'd have a really tight race again. Keep winning a large majority of our games, though, and they'll eventually lose hope.

 

[Bluewonder]

I remember the Caf saying the same in 2012 - Ferguson will not allow an 8 point lead slip.

We're a lot better than that Utd team.
They were lucky to have an 8 point lead at that stage.

 

[vmsuhail]

We're a lot better than that Utd team.
They were lucky to have an 8 point lead at that stage.

The recent form has been slightly concerning though. Pep admitted he wasn't happy with the 4-0 against Newcastle. Against Leicester, we went from 4-0 to 4-3 and gave up a ton of shots, Brentford was a struggle and Arsenal outplayed us. Generally our play has been very slow, we wait for the opposition defenders to get into shape and I don't even remember a good through ball. Hopefully, it's all tiredness. We only have 4 games in January, so time for everyone to rest and get back the sharpness.

 

[Inter Me Nan]

It isn't even about the permutations and ifs and buts. Do I think we will win it, of course I do. Is the league done, is it fuck.

If we were within 8 points behind, on the second of january, I wouldn't be writing us off, I'd go as far as fancying our chances.

Calling the league over on the 2nd of january is just fucking stupid. And entitled. Don't bother watching any more then, go on the piss. Calling people idiots or liverpool fans for refusing to call it over, is just being an arsehole.

It's not stupid at all!
When I say it's done I don't mean we can put our feet up, I mean I think we'll go on to win it which I think is fair enough, everyone is entitled to an opinion on how this will play out.
Pep won't think it's done and that's why I'm extremely confident we'll win it, even in January.

 

[alexmcity]

It's not stupid at all!
When I say it's done I don't mean we can put our feet up, I mean I think we'll go on to win it which I think is fair enough, everyone is entitled to an opinion on how this will play out.
Pep won't think it's done and that's why I'm extremely confident we'll win it, even in January.

It's really stupid to think it's done. If things go as usual, we are strong favourites. 538 gives us 85% chance to win the league, which is probably fair. 85% ain't 100% though.

What could go wrong? Well, we know from our own experience in 19/20 that multiple bad injuries could happen. Back then, Sane and Laporte were ruled out for 6 months. Imagine that Dias and Rodri get bad injuries in January/February. It's not likely, but it could happen. Then imagine that Stones continues with his injuries in the 2nd half of the season... Remember how Liverpool were heavy favourites to win the title last season and then Van Dyke, Gomez and Matip got injured. Injuries are part of football and sometimes may derail seasons.

Therefore, it's not done until it's done. Be humble and enjoy the football we play. Normally, we will win the league. But strange things happen in football all the time.

 

[Inter Me Nan]

It's really stupid to think it's done. If things go as usual, we are strong favourites. 538 gives us 85% chance to win the league, which is probably fair. 85% ain't 100% though.

What could go wrong? Well, we know from our own experience in 19/20 that multiple bad injuries could happen. Back then, Sane and Laporte were ruled out for 6 months. Imagine that Dias and Rodri get bad injuries in January/February. It's not likely, but it could happen. Then imagine that Stones continues with his injuries in the 2nd half of the season... Remember how Liverpool were heavy favourites to win the title last season and then Van Dyke, Gomez and Matip got injured. Injuries are part of football and sometimes may derail seasons.

Therefore, it's not done until it's done. Be humble and enjoy the football we play. Normally, we will the league. But strange things happen in football all the time.

I know things can go wrong, I'm not daft and I also know it's not done till it's done I've just explained that!
You're entitled to your opinion mate as are we who think it's 'done' ; p

 

[yerwot?]

it is in our hands, the others NEED us to crash, to have any chance. We will not get a nose-bleed, not our first rodeo an' all that. battle-hardened and know what's needed ....

 

[Agueroooo9320]

its all math now. we are on 53 points with 17 matches to go. all we need is 12 wins and 1 draw then we get 90 points. liverpool now have 42 points with 18 games to go so they need 16 wins to match that which would be ridiculously impossible.

if we do not loose more than 4 matches we will win the league. it would take an incredible crisis for us to lose, but also us keeping our head down and working like before is needed to not put our-self in a difficult position. I would prefer we win the next ten games and the have our losses later rather than losing form in the immediate future.

 

[alexmcity]

I know things can go wrong, I'm not daft and I also know it's not done till it's done I've just explained that!
You're entitled to your opinion mate as are we who think it's 'done' ; p

Yes, people are free to think it's done. But the same people wouldn't want Pep and the players to think and play like it's done. It's highly likely that we will win the title IF everything is business as usual. But only time can tell whether it will be business as usual. Injuries and things that are hard to predict are not unusual at all. The unlikely happens all the time. Was it likely that we would be 10 pts clear after 21 games? Not at all. Neither City fans nor any other fans expected it just a month ago.

It's a logical fallacy to think that what is likely to happen will happen. If some people have problems to experience uncertainty, they may think for themselves it's done. But they shouldn't call other posters idiots if the latter disagree with them.

 

[Inter Me Nan]

Yes, people are free to think it's done. But the same people wouldn't want Pep and the players to think and play like it's done. It's highly likely that we will win the title IF everything is business as usual. But only time can tell whether it will be business as usual. Injuries and things that are hard to predict are not unusual at all. The unlikely happens all the time. Was it likely that we would be 10 pts clear after 21 games? Not at all. Neither City fans nor any other fans have expected it just a month ago.

It's a logical fallacy to think that what is likely to happen will happen. If some people have problems to experience uncertainty, they may think for themselves it's done. But they shouldn't call other posters idiots if they disagree with them.

No I don't and that's why we'll win it imo.

 

[alexmcity]

No I don't and that's why we'll win it imo.

And because you are fairly certain that bad injuries to key players or other unpredictable (bad) things won't happen, for which you have no reason other than that it's not very likely that such things will happen.

That is, you go from "It's not likely that we'll suffer bad injuries to key players" to "I'm fairly certain that bad injuries to key players won't happen".

Let's pray that the likes of Dias and Rodri will stay fit, we are likely to struggle without them.

 

[Coatigan]

It's not stupid at all!
When I say it's done I don't mean we can put our feet up, I mean I think we'll go on to win it which I think is fair enough, everyone is entitled to an opinion on how this will play out.
Pep won't think it's done and that's why I'm extremely confident we'll win it, even in January.

The two are completely different things.

 

[Inter Me Nan]

And because you are fairly certain that bad injuries to key players or other unpredictable (bad) things won't happen, for which you have no reason other than that it's not very likely that such things will happen.

That is, you go from "It's not likely that we'll suffer bad injuries to key players" to "I'm fairly certain that bad injuries to key players won't happen".

Let's pray that the likes of Dias and Rodri will stay fit, we are likely to struggle without them.

I think we'll win it.

 

[Inter Me Nan]

The two are completely different things.

It's done.

 

[GSW Blue]

The bookies think it’s done. That’s good enough for me. It’s done.

 

[Chi-town blues]

83

 

[city114]

85pts maybe even less.

 

[Corky]

The recent form has been slightly concerning though. Pep admitted he wasn't happy with the 4-0 against Newcastle. Against Leicester, we went from 4-0 to 4-3 and gave up a ton of shots, Brentford was a struggle and Arsenal outplayed us. Generally our play has been very slow, we wait for the opposition defenders to get into shape and I don't even remember a good through ball. Hopefully, it's all tiredness. We only have 4 games in January, so time for everyone to rest and get back the sharpness.

Wolves home too.

1/12 - time to lay.