The Title Race - 2021/22

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 81382
  • Start date Start date
Status
Not open for further replies.
To call the title race over with 17 matches to go and a potential 8 point lead would be very Raggish.

I seem to recall a situation a decade back when a local side had an 8 point lead with 6 matches to go and still lost it. They also blew a big lead in 1967-68.

I know that Liverpool fans would be getting the 2021-22 League Championship t-shirts printed already as per 2013-14.

There is a long way to go before any title race can be called.
 
JGL07 said:
To call the title race over with 17 matches to go and a potential 8 point lead would be very Raggish.

I seem to recall a situation a decade back when a local side had an 8 point lead with 6 matches to go and still lost it. They also blew a big lead in 1967-68.

I know that Liverpool fans would be getting the 2021-22 League Championship t-shirts printed already as per 2013-14.

There is a long way to go before any title race can be called.
Click to expand...
absolutely. Anyone saying this is done doesnt know football properly imo. Not an insult either. Any one-event can change the tide, Pep knows this and we have to be steady and able to absorb anything that might upset what is a procession, but its important to keep it steady,.
 
David El Mago Silva said:
Chelsea are currently 10 points behind us and we play them next. Let's say we lose which isn't beyond the realms of possibility, they'll be 7 points behind us with 48 points still to play for. We'd still be in a strong position but bigger turnarounds have happened and at a far later stage in the season, namely 2011/12.

Liverpool are 11 points behind us with a game in hand. Let's say in the next round of fixtures we lose to Chelsea and Liverpool beat Brentford, both results hardly impossible, that makes it 8 points. Let's also assume for arguments sake that Liverpool win their game in hand to make it 5 points. Finally, we still have to play them later in the season and if we were to lose it would be 2 points.

Admittedly these are the worst case scenarios where everything goes against us but I don't think those results are that unrealistic. We also have to factor in the latter stages of the Champions League and potential absences due to injury or covid. Of course these apply to Liverpool and Chelsea just as much as they apply to us but we don't know how those three factors will impact on the rest of our respective seasons.

Having said all that, I am actually pretty confident we'll see it through but there's still a long way to go.
Click to expand...
Read this to ground your feet
 
it is not over by a long way, but we have it to lose only.
we will go through a bad patch, we will get butterflies.
not to win the league is throwing it away

id say 85 points will be enough but can see us getting above this
 
mccity said:
Well admittedly it does come off as overly confident, but assume we beat Chelsea and knock them out of the race.

Realistically the only way Liverpool catch up to us is if we replicate some of our worst ever form under Pep. And barring a huge injury crisis there's no reason why that would happen.

Of course, Liverpool could go on a huge winning run, but they obviously don't have it in them to do that this season. Even in games they've won they've looked worse than previously. They struggle against almost every decent side.

I do understand why some of the confidence can seem arrogant, but Pep Guardiola has zero history of ever losing a league from the position we're in now.
Click to expand...

I like the idea but until there is not enough points to go past us I’m saying nothing Haha
 
Let's compare how City and Liverpool fair in the 2nd half of recent seasons:

17/18

City 45 pts, Liverpool 40 pts

18/19

City 54 pts, Liverpool 46 pts

19/20

City 43 pts, Liverpool 44 pts

20/21

City 45 pts, Liverpool 35 pts


That is, IF City repeat their worst 2nd half of a season since 17/18 and Liverpool repeat their best 2nd half of a season since 17/18, then City will finish on 90 pts and Liverpool on 87 pts.

Generally, the probability of City winning the league is really high, without being a certainty of course. Personally, I think that Chelsea will finish above Liverpool due to their depth. While I agree with 358 that our chances are about 85 %, I reckon they underestimate Chelsea (2%) and overrate a bit Liverpool (13%).

The best statistical model is just a model, though. Reality is less predictable than we would like it to be.

Edit: Our worst 2nd half of a season under Pep was in 16/17 when we won 39 pts. If we repeat it, then we'd finish on 86 pts which is likely to be enough for the title IF Liverpool don't repeat their best ever 2nd half of a season under Klopp (46 pts). Generally, City under Pep tend to fare better in the 2nd half of the season than Liverpool. The exception is 19/20 when we won 43 pts and they 44 pts.
 
Last edited:
There's been something unique about City this season: we tend to win as many points per game vs the top 4 (or 6 or 8) teams as vs the bottom half teams, and we tend to win as many points at home as away from home. Compare that to Liverpool and Chelsea and the differences are big. They tend to drop much more points vs good teams.
 
If we beat Chelsea and Liverpool, I reckon 83 points will win it so we'll need another 10 wins from the 17 games left (including those 2)
 
My main worry is that our squad is relatively small: with Mendy suspended and Torres sold, we have only 17 outfield players or 18 if you include Palmer. A combination of covid cases, injuries and/or suspentions may reduce us to bare bones in some (big) games.

At the same time, even if we have 5-6 outfield players out, we still can field a good first XI, unless most of them are either defensive or offensive players. So, the worry isn't big (yet). Also, we have talents like McAtee and hopefully Delap, perhaps Kayky isn't too shabby either, but he's less likely to be ready to step up.
 
I think we have a real chance of getting 100 points again.

We can get 104, so we could lose 1 or draw 2.

Wouldn't say it's "likely" but it's doable. 16 games left.
 
97 - Premier League Title
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
89
88
87
86
85
84
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
72
71
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59
58
57 - Manchester City
56
55
54
53
52
51
50
49
48 - Liverpool
47
46
45
44 - Chelsea
43
42
41
40
39
38 - Man Utd
37 - West Ham
36 - Arsenal, Tottenham
35
34 - Wolves
33
32
31
30 - Brighton
29
28
27
26 - Villa, Leicester
25 - Southampton
24 - Palace
23 - Brentford
22 - Leeds
21
20
19 - Everton
18
17
16 - Norwich
15 - Newcastle
14 - Watford
13
12 - Burnley
 
Liverpool still has 54 points to play for. If we win 10 of the remaining 16 matches we have, we will be at 86 points. I believe it will be enough to win the league.

Honestly I don't see us dropping much points but anything can happen.
 
Made a few posts in this thread a couple of months ago saying we'd need 85 max and got shouted down by a couple of posters. Looking more and more likely now...
 
domalino said:
I think we have a real chance of getting 100 points again.

We can get 104, so we could lose 1 or draw 2.

Wouldn't say it's "likely" but it's doable. 16 games left.
Click to expand...
Doable but unlikely, I think Peps biggest challenge this year is to try and sustain the form going into May, momentum got us to the CL final but our performances weren’t great in the league from March on…

Context needs to be highlighted also, to replicate, almost like a mirror image of last year, is insane levels of consistency, if we manage to go all the way in CL, this will undoubtedly go down as one of the greatest club sides of all time, that should sink in for some people!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top