The Title Race 2022/23

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To be fair, our games that were postponed in the aftermath of the Queen’s death (Spurs at home and Arsenal away) were rearranged relatively quickly especially when the World Cup is taken into account and the also considering that both were TV games so the broadcasters had a say in things.
West Ham and Brighton are both playing games postponed following the Queen’s death in that midweek at the start of April. Had either of those clubs been a bit keener to play sooner, we might have been able to fit one of our games in then. But as it stands, neither will be happening until May.
Spurs! We had to wait fuckin ages for that.
Went from a late Summer game to the middle of winter.

Price of success I suppose but the League schedule should be managed much better.

Integrity of the competition and all that which they spout off about when it suits.
 
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Our rearranged games are likley to be midweek first week of may and just before final game of season.
As that is potentially the only time frame available given hopefully we go through against bayern.
 
It seems away goals count double if it came down to head to head results now aswell, making a play off even more unlikely.

Would be fun though.

We should let Arsenal beat us 3-1 to keep it alive.
If they beat us 3 - 1 it's all over!
 
They'll say it's too late but 1 of our tbc games should have been in for Wednesday after the Dippers game, even if only provisionally dependant on cup runs etc.

They do this stuff all the time when it suits the authorities or tv companies.

The run in may derail a proper title challenge which makes a mockery of the competition.

Always thought postponed games should be played ASAP and not shunted to the end of the season!
Alternatively the FA Cup games could all go to bespoke midweek dates eliminating the need to rearange league games.
My own feeling is that there are just too many games to fit into two few slots but money talks I guess.
 
Alternatively the FA Cup games could all go to bespoke midweek dates eliminating the need to rearange league games.
My own feeling is that there are just too many games to fit into two few slots but money talks I guess.
International football has destroyed the domestic stuff.

Club football is where the money is, it's a complete farce.

Shunt Internationals back to midweek or out of season like they used to be, no one gives a shit about it anyway.
 
Title race starts tomorrow. I think a win tomorrow puts us in a really strong position.

There are only 2 games left involving both sides where they aren't favourites. Both are Arsenal. I think this weekend and next weekend will paint a better picture. I would expect us to gain points on them across the next 2 games.

Stats from FiveThirtyEight below:
Home​
Draw​
Away​
01/04 - City v Liverpool​
61%​
19%​
19%​
01/04 - Arsenal v Leeds​
74%​
16%​
10%​
08/04 - Southampton v City​
10%​
16%​
73%​
09/04 - Liverpool v Arsenal​
43%​
23%​
35%​
15/04 - City v Leicester​
77%​
15%​
9%​
16/04 - West Ham v Arsenal​
26%​
24%​
51%​
21/04 - Arsenal v Southampton​
73%​
17%​
10%​
26/04 - City v Arsenal​
58%​
21%​
21%​
29/04 - Arsenal v Chelsea​
53%​
24%​
23%​
30/04 - Fulham v City​
13%​
18%​
69%​
03/05 - City v West Ham​
79%​
14%​
7%​
07/05 - City v Leeds​
80%​
13%​
7%​
07/05 - Newcastle v Arsenal​
35%​
25%​
40%​
13/05 - Everton v City​
10%​
16%​
74%​
13/05 - Arsenal v Brighton​
52%​
23%​
26%​
20/05 - City v Chelsea​
66%​
20%​
14%​
20/05 - Nottm Forest v Arsenal​
13%​
18%​
69%​
TBD - Brighton v City​
25%​
22%​
53%​
28/05 - Arsenal v Wolves​
71%​
18%​
11%​
28/05 - Brentford v City​
19%​
20%​
61%​

Stats don't say everything but they help paint a picture.

We have a greater than 2/3rd's chance of winning in 6 of our remaining games, that is only 4 games for them.

I just like our fixtures.

I think we will close the gap on Arsenal before the end of the season, just remains to be seen if we'll close it enough.
 
Title race starts tomorrow. I think a win tomorrow puts us in a really strong position.

There are only 2 games left involving both sides where they aren't favourites. Both are Arsenal. I think this weekend and next weekend will paint a better picture. I would expect us to gain points on them across the next 2 games.

Stats from FiveThirtyEight below:
Home​
Draw​
Away​
01/04 - City v Liverpool​
61%​
19%​
19%​
01/04 - Arsenal v Leeds​
74%​
16%​
10%​
08/04 - Southampton v City​
10%​
16%​
73%​
09/04 - Liverpool v Arsenal​
43%​
23%​
35%​
15/04 - City v Leicester​
77%​
15%​
9%​
16/04 - West Ham v Arsenal​
26%​
24%​
51%​
21/04 - Arsenal v Southampton​
73%​
17%​
10%​
26/04 - Man City v Arsenal​
58%​
21%​
21%​
29/04 - Arsenal v Chelsea​
53%​
24%​
23%​
30/04 - Fulham v City​
13%​
18%​
69%​
03/05 - City v West Ham​
79%​
14%​
7%​
07/05 - City v Leeds​
80%​
13%​
7%​
07/05 - Newcastle v Arsenal​
35%​
25%​
40%​
13/05 - Everton v City​
10%​
16%​
74%​
13/05 - Arsenal v Brighton​
52%​
23%​
26%​
20/05 - City v Chelsea​
66%​
20%​
14%​
20/05 - Nottm Forest v Arsenal​
13%​
18%​
69%​
TBD - Brighton v City​
25%​
22%​
53%​
28/05 - Arsenal v Wolves​
71%​
18%​
11%​
28/05 - Brentford v City​
19%​
20%​
61%​

Stats don't say everything but they help paint a picture.

We have a greater than 2/3rd's chance of winning in 6 of our remaining games, that is only 4 games for them.

I just like our fixtures.

I think we will close the gap on Arsenal before the end of the season, just remains to be seen if we'll close it enough.
Thanks for posting this. Obviously we’ve just got to keep winning and providing we do that, we could ideally do with Arsenal dropping points somewhere before they come to the Etihad. If they don’t, they’ll go into that game with an 11 point lead and (even though we’ll have two games in hand and have recovered from worse positions in the past), it just feels like a huge gap to have to make up.
 
Title race starts tomorrow. I think a win tomorrow puts us in a really strong position.

There are only 2 games left involving both sides where they aren't favourites. Both are Arsenal. I think this weekend and next weekend will paint a better picture. I would expect us to gain points on them across the next 2 games.

Stats from FiveThirtyEight below:
Home​
Draw​
Away​
01/04 - City v Liverpool​
61%​
19%​
19%​
01/04 - Arsenal v Leeds​
74%​
16%​
10%​
08/04 - Southampton v City​
10%​
16%​
73%​
09/04 - Liverpool v Arsenal​
43%​
23%​
35%​
15/04 - City v Leicester​
77%​
15%​
9%​
16/04 - West Ham v Arsenal​
26%​
24%​
51%​
21/04 - Arsenal v Southampton​
73%​
17%​
10%​
26/04 - Man City v Arsenal​
58%​
21%​
21%​
29/04 - Arsenal v Chelsea​
53%​
24%​
23%​
30/04 - Fulham v City​
13%​
18%​
69%​
03/05 - City v West Ham​
79%​
14%​
7%​
07/05 - City v Leeds​
80%​
13%​
7%​
07/05 - Newcastle v Arsenal​
35%​
25%​
40%​
13/05 - Everton v City​
10%​
16%​
74%​
13/05 - Arsenal v Brighton​
52%​
23%​
26%​
20/05 - City v Chelsea​
66%​
20%​
14%​
20/05 - Nottm Forest v Arsenal​
13%​
18%​
69%​
TBD - Brighton v City​
25%​
22%​
53%​
28/05 - Arsenal v Wolves​
71%​
18%​
11%​
28/05 - Brentford v City​
19%​
20%​
61%​

Stats don't say everything but they help paint a picture.

We have a greater than 2/3rd's chance of winning in 6 of our remaining games, that is only 4 games for them.

I just like our fixtures.

I think we will close the gap on Arsenal before the end of the season, just remains to be seen if we'll close it enough.

We'll be top by the end of April.
 
We'll be top by the end of April.

I would say very unlikely given we're 8 points behind and they play 6 times to our 5 times in April.

Unless you mean top if we win our games in hand (of which we'd have 2), which I'm inclined to agree with.
 
Title race starts tomorrow. I think a win tomorrow puts us in a really strong position.

There are only 2 games left involving both sides where they aren't favourites. Both are Arsenal. I think this weekend and next weekend will paint a better picture. I would expect us to gain points on them across the next 2 games.

Stats from FiveThirtyEight below:
Home​
Draw​
Away​
01/04 - City v Liverpool​
61%​
19%​
19%​
01/04 - Arsenal v Leeds​
74%​
16%​
10%​
08/04 - Southampton v City​
10%​
16%​
73%​
09/04 - Liverpool v Arsenal​
43%​
23%​
35%​
15/04 - City v Leicester​
77%​
15%​
9%​
16/04 - West Ham v Arsenal​
26%​
24%​
51%​
21/04 - Arsenal v Southampton​
73%​
17%​
10%​
26/04 - City v Arsenal​
58%​
21%​
21%​
29/04 - Arsenal v Chelsea​
53%​
24%​
23%​
30/04 - Fulham v City​
13%​
18%​
69%​
03/05 - City v West Ham​
79%​
14%​
7%​
07/05 - City v Leeds​
80%​
13%​
7%​
07/05 - Newcastle v Arsenal​
35%​
25%​
40%​
13/05 - Everton v City​
10%​
16%​
74%​
13/05 - Arsenal v Brighton​
52%​
23%​
26%​
20/05 - City v Chelsea​
66%​
20%​
14%​
20/05 - Nottm Forest v Arsenal​
13%​
18%​
69%​
TBD - Brighton v City​
25%​
22%​
53%​
28/05 - Arsenal v Wolves​
71%​
18%​
11%​
28/05 - Brentford v City​
19%​
20%​
61%​

Stats don't say everything but they help paint a picture.

We have a greater than 2/3rd's chance of winning in 6 of our remaining games, that is only 4 games for them.

I just like our fixtures.

I think we will close the gap on Arsenal before the end of the season, just remains to be seen if we'll close it enough.
I'm sure the maths makes sense, but wild to think we have a better chance of beating Liverpool at home than Arsenal do of beating West Ham away.
 
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