The good omen: we have won any title race under Pep when we have been no more than 8 pts off the top after 24 games.
We were 10 pts off Chelsea after 24 games in 16-17, and we were 19 pts off Liverpool in 19-20.
At various points in 18-19, 20-21 and 22-23 we were 7-8 pts off Liverpool or Arsenal and still won the title.
Basically, City are very good in title races. That was true also before Pep, as both Mancini and Pellegrini won close title races, with worse teams at that. Of course, this tendency doesn’t guarantee success. But, imo, it's not only, or even mostly, about luck.
The main thing: we should stay close to our rivals in March and April and we are likely to win it. If we win our games before Liverpool, even a loss at Anfield wouldn't mean curtains to our title chances, just us the loss there in 2014 didn't stop us from winning the league.
That said I think we won't lose at Anfield.