The Title Race - 2024/25

[youngbob]

I think Liverpool look the strongest overall so far, but I wouldn't rule out Chelsea or Arsenal or even City until it's mathematically not possible. We've got really bad injuries but January is coming and we've been here too many times with too many teams thinking they've broken us somewhere between Christmas and the early weeks of spring, forgetting that the season starts to feel really fucking long the closer you get to the finish line.

United in 2012, Arsenal and then Liverpool in 2014, Liverpool in 2019, United in 2021, Liverpool in 2022, Arsenal in 2023 and 2024. As always, if we're within a couple of games of the leaders by February, let's just carry on and see where things end up. In my heart of hearts, I think this season will be one too far and will end up more like 16/17 or 19/20, with us basically out of the title equation by the first week of April. But let's just see, eh?

For comparison, here's our record under Pep after 15 games in every season.

16/17 - 30 points, 4th place (finished 3rd)
17/18 - 43 points, 1st place (finished 1st)
18/19 - 41 points, 1st place (finished 1st)
19/20 - 32 points, 3rd place (finished 2nd)
20/21 - 29 points, 5th place (finished 1st)
21/22 - 35 points, 1st place (finished 1st)
22/23 - 35 points, 2nd place (finished 1st)
23/24 - 30 points, 2nd place (finished 1st)
24/25 - 27 points, 4th place (?)

Interesting that, despite everything, we're still only 2 points worse off than we were at this stage in 20/21 and only 3 points worse off than we were at this stage in 16/17 and 23/24. If we can get something resembling a proper squad together by the end of January, we might well be onto something. Not saying we're going to win the league, but this team is far from dead and buried and everyone - our lads, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal - will know it.

Let's aim for somewhere between 80-85 points and just... see where we land. If it's not to be, it's not to be. But there's 23 games left - to get to 85 points from our current total we'd need to pick up 58 points in that time. That's 19 wins and 4 defeats. Or 18 wins, 4 draws, 1 defeat. Likely? Not really. But possible? Absolutely. We've been here before, we'll be here again, and on some of those occasions we've been (or will be) champions in May.

 

[RayCTID]

Chelsea are the least inexperienced and their manager made a meal of getting promoted with Leicester so I don't think they will win. The otherside of the coin is both us and Chelsea can keep the pressure on either of Arsenal and Liverpool

 

[RayCTID]

With far greater talent. It is not the gap that's the issue. It's the paucity of talent.

Still have the talent at the club. We had our fairshare of injuries too during the title pushes.

 

[The Stockport Iniesta]

I think Liverpool look the strongest overall so far, but I wouldn't rule out Chelsea or Arsenal or even City until it's mathematically not possible. We've got really bad injuries but January is coming and we've been here too many times with too many teams thinking they've broken us somewhere between Christmas and the early weeks of spring, forgetting that the season starts to feel really fucking long the closer you get to the finish line.

United in 2012, Arsenal and then Liverpool in 2014, Liverpool in 2019, United in 2021, Liverpool in 2022, Arsenal in 2023 and 2024. As always, if we're within a couple of games of the leaders by February, let's just carry on and see where things end up. In my heart of hearts, I think this season will be one too far and will end up more like 16/17 or 19/20, with us basically out of the title equation by the first week of April. But let's just see, eh?

For comparison, here's our record under Pep after 15 games in every season.

16/17 - 30 points, 4th place (finished 3rd)
17/18 - 43 points, 1st place (finished 1st)
18/19 - 41 points, 1st place (finished 1st)
19/20 - 32 points, 3rd place (finished 2nd)
20/21 - 29 points, 5th place (finished 1st)
21/22 - 35 points, 1st place (finished 1st)
22/23 - 35 points, 2nd place (finished 1st)
23/24 - 30 points, 2nd place (finished 1st)
24/25 - 27 points, 4th place (?)

Interesting that, despite everything, we're still only 2 points worse off than we were at this stage in 20/21 and only 3 points worse off than we were at this stage in 16/17 and 23/24. If we can get something resembling a proper squad together by the end of January, we might well be onto something. Not saying we're going to win the league, but this team is far from dead and buried and everyone - our lads, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal - will know it.

Let's aim for somewhere between 80-85 points and just... see where we land. If it's not to be, it's not to be. But there's 23 games left - to get to 85 points from our current total we'd need to pick up 58 points in that time. That's 19 wins and 4 defeats. Or 18 wins, 4 draws, 1 defeat. Likely? Not really. But possible? Absolutely. We've been here before, we'll be here again, and on some of those occasions we've been (or will be) champions in May.

Loving the optimism mate. A really good post.

Personally I think we will be left with too much to do this season in the league but if we can get a couple of quality players in January then we could still have a good season. Maybe even get a trophy.

Kick on in the summer, with Pep overseeing the rebuild and we'll be right up there next season, no doubt in my mind.

 

[Damanino]

so strange two completely new managers in PL in their debut season look so far the strongest.

new managers need time to bed in, eh? not always as it seems.

fucking hell if Maresca delivers a title with a squad that finished 6th or 7th last time, or Slot with a squad that did no transfers this summer apart from sicknote Chiesa on loan (did anyone see Chiesa play for them like 45+ mins?)

 

[Roachy]

We have cameback to win it in far later positions than we are current in.

We have but that doesn't mean history will repeat itself. It's quite a tough ask looking at the situation, but not impossible. We are now reliant on the other teams, L'pool in particular dropping a fair few points along the way. At the same time we need our injured players back, provide a solution to the absent Rodri conundrum and overcome the mental and physical fatigue we keep hearing about, A few players need to regain some collective form and we really need to stop conceding so easily, which probably ties in with some of the other stuff. Realistically this has to start with, and continue on from, the derby this weekend.

 

[Blue Maverick]

We have but that doesn't mean history will repeat itself. It's quite a tough ask looking at the situation, but not impossible. We are now reliant on the other teams, L'pool in particular dropping a fair few points along the way. At the same time we need our injured players back, provide a solution to the absent Rodri conundrum and overcome the mental and physical fatigue we keep hearing about, A few players need to regain some collective form and we really need to stop conceding so easily, which probably ties in with some of the other stuff. Realistically this has to start with, and continue on from, the derby this weekend.

One thing in our favour might be us getting knocked out Europe, if the others go deep in those competitions we can rest and concentrate on the league. Like the World Cup in June I don’t think we will win that as new players won’t have time to adapt to Pep and everyone will be shagged at the end of this season.

 

[waspish]

so strange two completely new managers in PL in their debut season look so far the strongest.

new managers need time to bed in, eh? not always as it seems.

fucking hell if Maresca delivers a title with a squad that finished 6th or 7th last time, or Slot with a squad that did no transfers this summer apart from sicknote Chiesa on loan (did anyone see Chiesa play for them like 45+ mins?)

Look at there squads they should be where they are! Chelsea's squad is ridiculous! Of the field as well tying knots around the premier rules! Selling hotels to themselves selling the woman's team to themselves! Paying players of the books one of them Hazard all good!

 

[alexmcity]

We have been at that stage too with the injuries. All our defenders in the title run in a couple of seasons back.

No, we haven't been, for none of the key players has missed the entire season due to a bad injury. Amazingly, many still fail to get how important Rodri has been.

We had several defenders out injured in the final 3-4 games of the 21/22 season, but we were top for the entire 2nd half of the season, and not many points off the leader.

Spurious comparisons.

Mathematically, we have a chance. In reality we have a chance to win only if several players get even better than they were last season, e.g., Foden and Haaland, and someone like Doku stays fit the whole season and plays like one of the best wingers in the world. And also if Ake and Stones come soon and stay fit. Too many iffs, though.

 

[Xhavenjoe]

One thing in our favour might be us getting knocked out Europe, if the others go deep in those competitions we can rest and concentrate on the league.

The earliest we will be out of it is the 30th January.
If we are in the 9 to 24th play offs that is another 2 matches at least.
If we are out completely in Februar, that is too late to start thinking about catching teams in the league.