The "Trajectory"

Project said:
twinkletoes said:
Nobody knows when the decision was made. The media are reporting today that the decision was made in May or June.
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?? Clearly the decision to offer Mancini a contract was after the Spurs game. They may have discussed contingency plans as far back as the summer, but that's a hell of a long way from actually sacking the manager.
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Forget mate we could go on about this all night and still not get to the bottom of it.
 
danburge82 said:
tamworthblue said:
Since GC came out and told us the target for this season was 70 points and that the trajectory was clearly below this, I thought I'd check it out.

A good way to do this is to use a moving average (MA) to predict future points (on recent past form) and add these future points to those already in the bag. After the Spuds game we had played 16 so use an 8 game MA.

Game Pts Total Pts. 8MA Games Left Finish Pts
1 3 3
2 3 6
3 3 9
4 3 12
5 0 12
6 3 15
7 1 16
8 1 17 2.125 30 17+64=81
9 1 18 1.875 29 18+54=72
10 1 19 1.625 28 19+46=65
11 1 20 1.375 27 20+37=57
12 1 21 1.125 26 21+29=50
13 1 22 1.250 25 22+31=53
14 3 25 1.250 24 25+30=55
15 1 26 1.250 23 26+29=55
16 0 26 1.125 22 26+25=51

Those blues saying that Hughes was on target might want a rethink?
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Why dont you just predict we'll get 3 points in our next 2 games (which will take us up to 19 games played) then multiply our points by 2!

That'd be 64 points!
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As much as I admire the genius simplicity of that calculation, it only really works if you have been consistent over the whole 19 games. We haven't, 17 pts first 8 games, 9 pts next 8.
 
tamworthblue said:
Since GC came out and told us the target for this season was 70 points and that the trajectory was clearly below this, I thought I'd check it out.

A good way to do this is to use a moving average (MA) to predict future points (on recent past form) and add these future points to those already in the bag. After the Spuds game we had played 16 so use an 8 game MA.

Game Pts Total Pts. 8MA Games Left Finish Pts
1 3 3
2 3 6
3 3 9
4 3 12
5 0 12
6 3 15
7 1 16
8 1 17 2.125 30 17+64=81
9 1 18 1.875 29 18+54=72
10 1 19 1.625 28 19+46=65
11 1 20 1.375 27 20+37=57
12 1 21 1.125 26 21+29=50
13 1 22 1.250 25 22+31=53
14 3 25 1.250 24 25+30=55
15 1 26 1.250 23 26+29=55
16 0 26 1.125 22 26+25=51

Those blues saying that Hughes was on target might want a rethink?
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what's this? Maths for the terminally illogical
and it makes me piss that supposed 'intelligent' posters agree with your flawed, shall we call them, 'statistics'
noobs ,who should know better, agreeing with your falsehoods as it suits their agenda

over the last three years against the same teams, taking into account we have to replace relegated teams with new, we have scored points as follows
07-08 20 points maintained giving 45
08-09 20 points maintained giving 45
09-10 29 points maintained giving 65

the stats suggest we have had a difficult start in teams as the two previous seasons we have beaten the 45 point mark which could lead to us beating the 65 point mark
71 usually gets you fourth spot
 
tamworthblue said:
danburge82 said:
Why dont you just predict we'll get 3 points in our next 2 games (which will take us up to 19 games played) then multiply our points by 2!

That'd be 64 points!
Click to expand...

As much as I admire the genius simplicity of that calculation, it only really works if you have been consistent over the whole 19 games. We haven't, 17 pts first 8 games, 9 pts next 8.
Click to expand...

Aye! Plus every single game on its own is different! Predictions do not take into account form! And not just OUR form because we beat Chelsea at the start of a bit of a poor 3 weeks for them but we could play them later in the season and be hit for 6! Plus we could play Spurs at home later in the season and they could be on a bad run and we could beat them 3-0!

Predictions are a dodgy thing to do things on, facts are the only things that matter really!
 
Just done a bit of research to see how many points the 4th placed team has finished on each season. And it is amazing how much it has changed in recent years! I've looked at the last 6 seasons:

03/04 - 60
04/05 - 61
05/06 - 67
06/07 - 68
07/08 - 76
08/09 - 72

Only very recently has it truely become a "big 4", with the 4th placed team being absolutely miles away from the top 3 in 03/04 and 04/05. The number of points needed has steadily increased over time, but with this season being more competitive than normal, i think the 70 point target is a pretty well thought out, and realistic, one. It should just be enough to sneak into a Champions League spot.
 
Look, before anyone else gets nowty I posted this in good faith with no agenda. I wasn't trying to predict we'll end up with X points at the end of the season. I was trying to show that if our future form continues the same way as our last 8 or 9 games then 70 points is a f****** pipe dream. For all I know Hughes might have won the next 10 games on the trot but the owners didn't and I can see why.

I'm off to the pub. Cheers!
 
tamworthblue said:
Look, before anyone else gets nowty I posted this in good faith with no agenda. I wasn't trying to predict we'll end up with X points at the end of the season. I was trying to show that if our future form continues the same way as our last 8 or 9 games then 70 points is a f****** pipe dream. For all I know Hughes might have won the next 10 games on the trot but the owners didn't and I can see why.

I'm off to the pub. Cheers!
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in that case don't post shite statistics and to have a pop at city fans who see things differently to you
 
as rafa would say here are some facts

the last 7 seasons

1st-89.3--2.35 per game - highest 95 lowest 87
2nd-82.4--2.17 86-78
3rd-76.7--2.02 83-77
4th-67.3--1.77 76-60
5th-61.6--1.62 65-56
6th-59.9--1.57 63-56
7th-56.4--1.48 59-53

currently p17 pts 29 = 1.7per game Trajectory =64.8

facts - draw your own conclusios
 
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