He knows how media works. He's committed to nothing but got everyone talking about him. It's zero risk. If we lose he can say "Sorry I was misinformed by my source but as we all know the club was very confident so it's understandable."
If we win people think he's a legend with an inside source that knew the result beforehand.
In my opinion he's pieced together info in the public domain then taken an educated guess. No more or less than other journalists in a similar position might do.
I mean, Jesus Christ, he says "we may know more tomorrow or Monday." Guardiola's press conference is today and CAS release their findings on Monday. What's his amazing source, the fucking newspapers?!
For what it's worth I'd heard from a source who definitely works at the club that they think the ban will be reduced to 1 year. However, I put no store by it because he's been wrong more than once in the past. We will know at 0931 on Monday.