US Election 2020 Prediction Thread

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

I now predict that predictions - as projected by polling - still have not accurately modeled the right's enthusiasm for Donald Trump as confounded by the right's apparent aversion towards participating in polls.

That this same (presumably) phenomenon occurred in 2016 - and now in 2020 still has not been accounted for - is disappointing.

Still - aversion towards participating in polls - if biased towards one party or another - seems difficult to identify.

If a large enough segment of voters on one side or another refuse to participate in polling - over time this might be accurately modeled - I sense though that current polls did not even take this possible factor into account (correct me if I'm wrong).

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

View attachment 4836

Based on polling and historical trends, this is my best guess. This is actually the exact same margin Trump won by in 2016. I see Biden taking Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Arizona while Trump keeps Texas, Iowa, Florida, Georgia, and Ohio for the swing states.

The Senate will be the closest of the three where I do think the Dems will get to at least 50, giving them a majority assuming Biden wins. I personally think 52 is where they'll end up, and 2022 only gets tougher for Republicans in Senate re-elections. The House should stay with the Dems.

This is looking scarily accurate in terms of electoral points

 

[KCblue]

This is looking scarily accurate in terms of electoral points

If current results hold, I'll have gotten the margin spot on. Only differences would be Georgia to Biden and North Carolina + Maine-2 to Trump.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

If current results hold, I'll have gotten the margin spot on. Only differences would be Georgia to Biden and North Carolina + Maine-2 to Trump.

You've done insanely well there tbf mate. Don't think many expected Georgia to go the way it did

 

[Ric]

Lol.

Looks like he might've got carried away with the Electoral College votes, but quite possibly called Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia right.

 

[mat]

Trump to win in Supreme Court....

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

Trump to win in Supreme Court....

Don't you dare

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

I predict that when the dust settles and Biden gets his feet under the Oval Office desk and the election of 2020 is a distant memory, Trump will still be a ****.

 

[mat]

I predict that when the dust settles and Biden gets his feet under the Oval Office desk and the election of 2020 is a distant memory, Trump will still be a ****.

That exact quote will be used in American history books.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

My prediction. I think it will come down to Pensylvannia and Florida. If trump wins both the Dems will be sweating, if Biden wins both then Trump is finished. If both take one each like I think they will it will be close indeed

Democrat - 278

Republican - 260

Independent - 0


Battlegrounds

Arizona - Republican win

Florida - Republican win

Georgia - Republican win

Iowa - Republican win

Michigan - Democrat win

Nevada - Democrat win

North Carolina - Republican win

Ohio - Republican win

Pennsylvania - Democrat win

Wisconsin - Democrat win

Pretty happy with my guesses in the end. Only got Arizona and Georgia (Nebraska District 2 as well but that's only one electoral point) wrong, which were two big shocks to most people.

Always felt Florida was going red but that Biden would win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania that would see him over the line.

 

[bluethrunthru]

 

[mat]

 

[bluethrunthru]

Shocked.....not