I don’t know if Trump will use nuclear weapons but I do think all the prerequisites for him doing so are falling into place.
Iran has no interest in negotiating with a country that’s attacked them twice while they were making all the concessions asked of them.
The bombing and assassination campaign has just consolidated IRGC power and seemingly not done much else. They won’t go along with Trump declaring victory and leaving; they need to publicly win this war even more than Trump.
The strait of Hormuz can be kept closed seemingly indefinitely by even a very weak Iran.
A ground invasion is predicted to be an absolute disaster and a bloodbath by every former military commentator.
So Trump has painted himself into a corner where the only way out is massive escalation to “win” or admitting defeat.
The Republican Party is completely beholden to MAGA and controls congress and the Supreme Court has been stacked with Trump loyalists/acolytes so there’s no chance of him “being stopped”.
And we know that anyone with dissenting opinions is being pushed out leaving Hegseth, Witkoff and Miller at the heart of power, all three of whom are batshit crazy ideologues.
Israel would be all for it, they’re edging towards bombing nuclear power plants so they obviously don’t give a fuck.
I think the most pertinent question is who is going to stop him when his back is against the wall? The only real opposition would be from the Gulf states who would face the repercussions, both in terms of retaliation and literal fallout.
Which leaves everything at the whim of an 80 year old paedophile narcissist with dementia who doesn’t value human life and is primarily motivated by holding onto power.