US Politics Thread

[BlueHammer85]

There's a lot of positivity about Kamala Harris in this thread but the odds for Trump are shortening over the last few days which is a bit worrying.

He was 1/7 at one stage a few weeks ago

Now he’s 1/2

Still favourite but odds are definitely narrowing

 

[Scottyboi]

There's a lot of positivity about Kamala Harris in this thread but the odds for Trump are shortening over the last few days which is a bit worrying.

No they aren't , I check it on Betfair all the time Kamala is coming in and slight drift on Trump. Don't pay attention to any bookies except the exchanges.

 

[Scottyboi]

He was 1/7 at one stage a few weeks ago

Now he’s 1/2

Still favourite but odds are definitely narrowing

4/6 now, bookies ripping people off by giving 1/2.

 

[hcblue95]

No they aren't , I check it on Betfair all the time Kamala is coming in and slight drift on Trump. Don't pay attention to any bookies except the exchanges.

I've just been checking oddschecker since Biden pulled out of the race and thought she'd drifted slightly over the last 2 or 3 days but I could well be wrong.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

There is no way this train hasn’t been on the tracks for several weeks.

This is interesting. I'm a bit of a Watergate buff, and one of the key elements of Nixon's resignation was his staff's insistence that resigning never be suggested to him directly as a course of action because of fears about doing so being perceived by history as a coup d'etat. It was very important that Nixon alone make the decision to resign. You could provide him with information of his support going to zero, but not offer resignation as "the only" possible course of action he could take in response.

I think something similar has happened here. I do think up until the debate there was likely little thought of Biden stepping down, but a smart group of staff (Biden's or Harris's) would have been making contingency plans as they watched the President slowly lose his faculties. But I feel confident that when Bob Woodward writes this book, we'll find the same dynamic whereby the staff was planning, and providing Biden with data on public perception, but never suggested directly that stepping aside was the best or only tack to take. Like Nixon I believe Biden firmly felt he could continue in the role up until just before he realized what was best for the nation.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

This is interesting. I'm a bit of a Watergate buff, and one of the key elements of Nixon's resignation was his staff's insistence that resigning never be suggested to him directly as a course of action because of fears about doing so being perceived by history as a coup d'etat. It was very important that Nixon alone make the decision to resign. You could provide him with information of his support going to zero, but not offer resignation as "the only" possible course of action he could take in response.

I think something similar has happened here. I do think up until the debate there was likely little thought of Biden stepping down, but a smart group of staff (Biden's or Harris's) would have been making contingency plans as they watched the President slowly lose his faculties. But I feel confident that when Bob Woodward writes this book, we'll find the same dynamic whereby the staff was planning, and providing Biden with data on public perception, but never suggested directly that stepping aside was the best or only tack to take. Like Nixon I believe Biden firmly felt he could continue in the role up until just before he realized what was best for the nation.

As you say, interesting. And Harris would have spotted this. And seen her big chance.

She has stepped into the breach with too much purpose and gusto to not have been in training for this for many weeks.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

Hopefully, her VP pick will give her a bump. Then, there will be a convention bounce. Then, we will settle into the real meaty part of both campaigns, and BILLIONS of dollars will be spent on ads and getting out the vote!

As polls go, the Dem candidate generally has to be at least a few points up nationally to squeeze out an electoral victory, as their votes are far more concentrated in the urban areas of each state.

It’s weird irony that so much money flows into red states, yet they tout small govt and keeping it out of their lives….as long as the cheques clear and they get their govt assistance for everything from the food on their table to the proportionately larger share of medical care they use.

Murica…lots of us ain’t the sharpest tools in the shed!!

 

[AliBobbyJ]

This is interesting. I'm a bit of a Watergate buff, and one of the key elements of Nixon's resignation was his staff's insistence that resigning never be suggested to him directly as a course of action because of fears about doing so being perceived by history as a coup d'etat. It was very important that Nixon alone make the decision to resign.

Wasn't Barry Goldwater the one who talked to Nixon and persuaded him to go? There was a political cartoon from the time by Nicholas Garland (I think in the Daily Telegraph, you can probably find it in a search) that showed Nixon standing on a high ledge with Goldwater leaning out of a window saying "Don't do it Dick - jump!"

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

Also further alienates female voters. Stupid fucking ****.

Has anyone pointed out to Vance and the MAGA cultists that Jesus didn’t have any children?

Guess he should have less influence on US politics too.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

Wasn't Barry Goldwater the one who talked to Nixon and persuaded him to go? There was a political cartoon from the time by Nicholas Garland (I think in the Daily Telegraph, you can probably find it in a search) that showed Nixon standing on a high ledge with Goldwater leaning out of a window saying "Don't do it Dick - jump!"

Goldwater was late to turn against Nixon but he was part of the contingent of three who spoke with him the evening before he decided to quit and gave Nixon a very dour assessment of his chance (“no chance”, in fact) to avoid impeachment by the House and Senate — including telling Nixon specifically that he, Goldwater, was undecided at that moment.