US Politics Thread

gordondaviesmoustache said:
The handover has been so accomplished, well-timed and such a fait accompli it’s almost like someone had planned it…
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Yeah but like Trump getting shot and missing his brain by an inch. You can't set that up. It's to far out to be a set up.
SWP's back said:
She’s +2 in the polls so if the election was tomorrow I’d have her finishing +4 to +6 taking the last 6 years Dem out performance vs polling into account.
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Agree, dems are consistently out performing polls. The abortion issue seems to be a big factor in that and I'm sure Dems will start to really hammer home that point.
SWP's back said:
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Fox telling its audience the polls are fake is good. It's aligned with Trump telling them they don't need to vote.
hillbillyliar said:
It is interesting to see democrats mimicking Trump rallies. Will they all start wearing camo hats? Kamala seems uncomfortable with the chanting - but Tim is loving it. Trump must be hating it - it is a far cry from a Biden rally.
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There is a Harris Walz camo baseball hat that has sold out and is already becoming a bit of a cult item. Made in the USA obviously.
 
Gareth Barry Conlon said:
Yeah but like Trump getting shot and missing his brain by an inch. You can't set that up. It's to far out to be a set up.
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Broadly agree about the shooting, but not about this. Think it’s perfectly plausible (although still unlikely) that Biden threw that debate. Accepted some time previously he couldn’t win and gave his number two an uncontested run at the Presidency.

The way she came off out the blocks suggests she’d been primed some time ago.

My view around conspiracy theories is mainly rooted in skepticism and is usually inversely linked to the number of people who would need to be in on it for it to be true. The Trump shooting would have required dozens, and as you say the physics don’t add up. This, however, could feasibly been a very small number, theoretically two.

The impact has been too profound, and the timing too serendipitous and expeditious to completely exclude the possibility.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
Broadly agree about the shooting, but not about this. Think it’s perfectly plausible (although still unlikely) that Biden threw that debate. Accepted some time previously he couldn’t win and gave his number two an uncontested run at the Presidency.

The way she came off out the blocks suggests she’d been primed some time ago.

My view around conspiracy theories is mainly rooted in skepticism and is usually inversely linked to the number of people who would need to be in on it for it to be true. The Trump shooting would have required dozens, and as you say the physics don’t add up. This, however, could feasibly been a very small number, theoretically two.

The impact has been too profound, and the timing too serendipitous and expeditious to completely exclude the possibility.
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Where I think that falls down is with how the wider party reacted.

At the point Biden came out and said I'm out and I want Haris to succeed, anyone of 100 or so top Dems could have said we are a Democratic Party and the wider party should have a say and I would like to be considered. As soon as 1 credible challenger emerged then a messy process would have been required and would likely still be going on with a winner announced on the eve of the convention.

It's possible that the hieracy were all in agreement and controlling things but it's not likely. These are ambitious people but also principled people and the idea of a set up like this just wouldn't fly. And the risk would be someone says no, I'm not playing along and if he steps down I'm putting my hand up. I think it's much more plausible that in the days before and after a small number of senior dems, the old guard like pelocy and Obama and the younger potential candidates had numerous calls and those with a good chance were persuaded not to challenge. Newsome ducked even before the announcementand I think he did that to make it easier for Biden to nominate Harris. But that's different to an elaborate plot and it all hinged on Biden making the call which I'm sure he did under his own steam.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
Broadly agree about the shooting, but not about this. Think it’s perfectly plausible (although still unlikely) that Biden threw that debate. Accepted some time previously he couldn’t win and gave his number two an uncontested run at the Presidency.

The way she came off out the blocks suggests she’d been primed some time ago.
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Agree her fast start might be a sign that she and Biden had cooked this up weeks ago during private chats in the W.H. But I don't really see Biden deliberately embarrassing himself with a pre-planned stumbling performance in the debate. Rather, I tend to believe that his many assertions that he would not quit were genuine and that he finally yielded to mounting pressure from senior figures in the Dem Party.

Then again I've been sold a couple of bridges over the years.
 
Gareth Barry Conlon said:
Where I think that falls down is with how the wider party reacted.

At the point Biden came out and said I'm out and I want Haris to succeed, anyone of 100 or so top Dems could have said we are a Democratic Party and the wider party should have a say and I would like to be considered. As soon as 1 credible challenger emerged then a messy process would have been required and would likely still be going on with a winner announced on the eve of the convention.

It's possible that the hieracy were all in agreement and controlling things but it's not likely. These are ambitious people but also principled people and the idea of a set up like this just wouldn't fly. And the risk would be someone says no, I'm not playing along and if he steps down I'm putting my hand up. I think it's much more plausible that in the days before and after a small number of senior dems, the old guard like pelocy and Obama and the younger potential candidates had numerous calls and those with a good chance were persuaded not to challenge. Newsome ducked even before the announcementand I think he did that to make it easier for Biden to nominate Harris. But that's different to an elaborate plot and it all hinged on Biden making the call which I'm sure he did under his own steam.
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I’m not sure I follow the logic of what you are saying. Following Biden’s announcement, the momentum behind Harris was overwhelming and It was a fait accompli well before anyone got the chance to break cover.

It would have been daft for anyone to throw their hat into the ring at any point.
 
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