It’s still waaay too early to make prognostications about Nov 5th, as both camps haven’t really started campaigning. Yes, they’re both being more public, but that’s ALL about raising $$$$$$, not discussing the issues, esp for Biden.
As the recent data has shown, the U.S. economy is the envy of the world, high dollar, high tech manufacturing is being brought back to the U.S. and inflation has been brought under control, if not all the way down to the Fed’s preferred 2-3% level. Bond yields are back to historic norms and are indicating a low real rate, which suggests things are very good, and the stock market is flirting with even newer highs every session after breaking through pre-pandemic highs already!
However, to hear the Republicans talk, you would believe we are in economic free fall, 3-4% inflation is killing America, and the price of Snickers bar is some deep philosophical issue amongst the electorate.
In short, THINGS ARE VERY GOOD…with the exception of an immigration crisis at the southern border, which is being exacerbated by House Republicans who NOW don’t want to vote for the deal THEY WANTED AND BASICALLY WROTE, but Trump didn’t want for purely partisan political purposes!!!
Ask a Republican what Biden has done and it’s all doom and gloom but zero specifics. Ask the same person what Trump did and the vast majority will tell you everything was better and the border was secure, but they can’t name a single ACTUAL legislative accomplishment and almost everyone (Republicans!!!) who worked with him in government (“I only hire the best people!”) are openly opposed to him being anywhere near the White House ever again!