US Politics Thread

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

I've let that comment go previously but as I had a family member who was in Auschwitz and hurt quite badly (on two occasions) I'd like you to not do it again please.

Auschwitz was a despicable stain on history, which is why I find confusing that you appear to be giving a free pass to a guy who said "Hitler did some good things", and "I wish my generals were more like Hitler's Generals".

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

 

[SebastianBlue]

I know, it’s pretty obvious to everyone, I hope it’s the left kicking off, looks like it’s going to be that way.

FWIW I think Trump will win and be a disaster, but also think it’s a no win situation. I think he’s going to isolate the US economically, and I foresee a lack of intervention in foreign tensions (outside of Israel) causing a lot more drama (and I think he’ll be right in doing so).

He’ll withdraw support for Ukraine, and negotiate a peace deal where everything bar Crimea is handed back, under the conditions of NATO being disbanded and Ukraine joining the EU, probably with some sort of Russian peace keepers in the Donbas.

BRICs membership will continue to grow and US government spending will be halved; these will offset each other as far as the dollar is concerned with it slightly weakening.

I think this will be better for the US, because it’s such a big country and so self sufficient I think it’ll strengthen internally but become a much smaller player internationally, with China taking up the difference, who, I believe, will be a much more responsible power.

Hummm, I think there is a big difference between crashing the economy and crashing the markets.

I also think the dollar holds waaaay more weight and importance than either in the short term.

Edit: these guys don’t know what they’re talking about, they’re seriously uneducated

The dollar is king, these guys touched on something (selling bonds to China) but China have been offloading bonds for 2 years… and the buying of it was a hedge in the first place.

We’re already seeing trades happen which historically were made in dollars, now happen in local currency. This in part is to due to restrictions on Russia.

So you’re going to be looking at a weaker dollar, probably compounded by the import taxes Trump wants to stick on anything outside the US.

Nothing is going to crash, the US is absolutely self sufficient and although I foresee a huge drop in forex markets, I think normal Americans will be better off as jobs “come back home”.

Your economic analysis and forecasting makes very little sense, apart for some basic fact-based assertions.

Source: I am a trained economist with decades of experience in economic and financial data analytics.

I also think your political forecasting is deeply flawed, but that is admittedly more an educated, engaged personal opinion, rather an expert one.

 

[Blue_Lightsaber]

I've let that comment go previously but as I had a family member who was in Auschwitz and hurt quite badly (on two occasions) I'd like you to not do it again please.

Fascism doesn't always like Hitler and Mussolini.

It's a lot more common than you think.

Recent fascism examples are Modi in India, Netanyahu in Israel, Prayuth in Thailand, Musharraf in Pakistan, Saddam Hussein in Iraq, MBS in Saudi Arabia, khomeni in Iran etc

You don't always need massive 6 million dead in gas chambers.. just small sized pogroms/ riots in the streets accomplish the same thing, but one thing all fascists need is public justification for their actions which are actual "major overreactions" to a perceived crime and they must use the stick to get society back on the "correct path".

Also another major tenet of fascism is at first the overreaction is "small" so some undesirables if they have common sense leave, then there's less to deal with when you try to round them up, and fewer to speak out since the only ones left either don't want them there, or are of too low status or resources to do anything about it.

The ones that don't leave.. well then you're talking bigger pogroms and eventually the final solution.

My wife is Thai and she was all convinced Prayuth meant well and he would only be the caretaker for 6 months as he originally claimed.. and he was in power for 9 years! I saw through it but the majority of Thai's didn't. Similarly MAGA doesn't see through it what they're actually doing to themselves.

Wouldn't be the first people voting against their own self interest.. There were Jews for Nazi party you know?? I mean who cares what he says.. as long as he bring down inflation? LOL

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

Your economic analysis and forecasting makes very little sense, apart for some basic fact-based assertions.

Source: I am a trained economist with decades of experience in economic and financial data analytics.

I also think your political forecasting is deeply flawed, but that is admittedly more an educated, engaged personal opinion, rather an expert one.

I'm no financial expert but I'm pretty sure the markets have a direct impact on the economy?

 

[bluesteel]

Your economic analysis and forecasting makes very little sense, apart for some basic fact-based assertions.

Source: I am a trained economist with decades of experience in economic and financial data analytics.

I also think your political forecasting is deeply flawed, but that is admittedly more an educated, engaged personal opinion, rather an expert one.

That’s why I’m here… show me the other side of the coin, it’s probably going to be opinion based but I’d love to hear it. I’m more than happy to be put in my place fact wise too if there is doubt.

 

[SebastianBlue]

I've let that comment go previously but as I had a family member who was in Auschwitz and hurt quite badly (on two occasions) I'd like you to not do it again please.

Stop acting like a Good German and I will stop referring to you as a Good German.

And, for the record, nearly half of my family were brutally murdered by Nazis (several where at Dachau; many didn’t even make it there), which is the reason I actually take the rise of the far-right and fascism in the US (and Europe) very seriously. There is a reason I have been so vocal in the Middle East Conflict threads.

I have also worked and lived in places with de facto authoritarian regimes (including now Israel) and have seen how they form and take hold.

Again, I will simply end this post by reposting this warning for all those choosing to ignore the plight and pain of others:

The hottest places in hell are reserved for those who, in times of great moral crisis, maintain their neutrality.

 

[Big Joe Corrigan]

View attachment 137171

I hope so, looks like the women could decide it.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Stop acting like a Good German and I will stop referring to you as a Good German.

And, for the record, nearly half of my family were brutally murdered by Nazis, which is the reason I actually take the rise of the far-right and fascism in the US (and Europe) very seriously. There is a reason I have been so vocal in the Middle East Conflict threads.

I have also worked and live in places with de facto authoritarian regimes (including now Israel) and have seen how they form and take hold.

Again, I will simply end this post by reposting this warning for all those choosing to ignore the plight and pain of others:

The hottest places in hell are reserved for those who, in times of great moral crisis, maintain their neutrality.

You do realise hell isn't a thing? It's part of a very old story designed to scare people into compliance with authority. A bit like the boogeyman man, or describing someone as the 'next hitler'.

 

[SebastianBlue]

That’s why I’m here… show me the other side of the coin, it’s probably going to be opinion based but I’d love to hear it. I’m more than happy to be put in my place fact wise too if there is doubt.

To be honest, there is so much wrong with your posts from an economic theory and reality standpoint I am not sure I have the energy, especially after that match today, to break them down point-by-point. You got a few facts correct (basic understanding of the current stats of dollars position as a reserve currency, stating that the economy is different to the equity markets), but your analysis is based on false assumptions or wholly incorrect understanding of how markets work (and the current state of them), how elements of Trump’s proposed economic policies would actually impact the US (and world) economy, and the implications of China’s ongoing economic and geopolitical policies and actions (domestically, with US, and across the world).

As far as your political analysis and forecasting, my counter view is based on extreme disagreement with your base stance and assumptions, as well. But that would be entirely opinion driven, if I do consider mine to be educated and informed, so not sure there is any point in arguing on those points. Neither of us are likely to change the other’s position.