US Politics Thread

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

It's been less than 2 weeks since Trump announced and its been non stop bad news for him. The GOP establishment gearing up to move on. But the base is committed Trump voters not Republican voters. Everything lined up to be a total disaster for them however it pans out.

The election of speaker in January will be the next flash point. Will be interesting to see how the Trumpist freedom caucus votes. They have a choice of electing an establishment GOPer in Mccarthy, who Trump does not like, or just burn it down.

 

[markprendy]

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

The politically neutral always show themselves as the exact opposite.

ALWAYS.

 

[buckshot]

It's been less than 2 weeks since Trump announced and its been non stop bad news for him. The GOP establishment gearing up to move on. But the base is committed Trump voters not Republican voters. Everything lined up to be a total disaster for them however it pans out.

The election of speaker in January will be the next flash point. Will be interesting to see how the Trumpist freedom caucus votes. They have a choice of electing an establishment GOPer in Mccarthy, who Trump does not like, or just burn it down.

I don't understand why people are pretending that Desantis can win the nomination and actually be a viable candidate. Do they think tangerine Palpatine is just going to go away once he loses? Do they think he's going to say the primaries weren't rigged? Do they believe his base will just show up and vote for Desantis in November? Do they realize that he's addicted to the attention and that rallies and selling hats generate an income stream that he needs since he's so horrible at making business decisions?

There are two plausible outcomes:
1. He wins the nomination and all of the GQPers who are speaking out against him fall back in line, go to Mar a Lardo to kiss the ring
2. He doesn't win (which is highly unlikely since he still owns most of the base), claims that the primaries were rigged and refuses to accept the results. This will lead to a convention full of his whack jobs stirring things up, probably causing violence and making the whole thing a shit show. After that his base will make what the Bernie bros did to Hillary look like a minor ripple. I actually don't see how he can't run as a 3rd party candidate since it's the only way he could justify having rallies and bilking morons out of donations.

If you doubt me just remember that it wasn't just the 2020 election that he claimed was rigged, he also said the same about the 2016 election and the 2016 Iowa caucus...

Trump accuses Cruz of stealing Iowa caucuses through 'fraud'

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on Wednesday accused rival Ted Cruz of stealing a victory in the Iowa caucuses and called for another vote or nullification of Cruz's win.

www.reuters.com

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I don't understand why people are pretending that Desantis can win the nomination and actually be a viable candidate. Do they think tangerine Palpatine is just going to go away once he loses? Do they think he's going to say the primaries weren't rigged? Do they believe his base will just show up and vote for Desantis in November? Do they realize that he's addicted to the attention and that rallies and selling hats generate an income stream that he needs since he's so horrible at making business decisions?

There are two plausible outcomes:
1. He wins the nomination and all of the GQPers who are speaking out against him fall back in line, go to Mar a Lardo to kiss the ring
2. He doesn't win (which is highly unlikely since he still owns most of the base), claims that the primaries were rigged and refuses to accept the results. This will lead to a convention full of his whack jobs stirring things up, probably causing violence and making the whole thing a shit show. After that his base will make what the Bernie bros did to Hillary look like a minor ripple. I actually don't see how he can't run as a 3rd party candidate since it's the only way he could justify having rallies and bilking morons out of donations.

If you doubt me just remember that it wasn't just the 2020 election that he claimed was rigged, he also said the same about the 2016 election and the 2016 Iowa caucus...

Trump accuses Cruz of stealing Iowa caucuses through 'fraud'

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on Wednesday accused rival Ted Cruz of stealing a victory in the Iowa caucuses and called for another vote or nullification of Cruz's win.

www.reuters.com

Wile I mostly agree, I do think the 'Trump owns the base' view is overplayed. The MAGA ultras are out there in big numbers but those numbers have been in decline for a wile now. Just look at the mid terms were far more republicans turned out to vote for traditional GOPers. And look at the turnouts for his ralies - some are embarrassingly small. And part of that decline is down to the show he puts on - its a long boring moan about how the election was stolen, and nothing else. Fox News gave up showing them a long time ago.

I think a lot depends on how the primaries shape up. The more that stand against him the more chance he has. I'd guess 33% vote Trump whatever and the rest are up for grabs. So in a field of 3 or more he wins. If its just him and RD then he has to fight for some votes.

 

[buckshot]

Wile I mostly agree, I do think the 'Trump owns the base' view is overplayed. The MAGA ultras are out there in big numbers but those numbers have been in decline for a wile now. Just look at the mid terms were far more republicans turned out to vote for traditional GOPers. And look at the turnouts for his ralies - some are embarrassingly small. And part of that decline is down to the show he puts on - its a long boring moan about how the election was stolen, and nothing else. Fox News gave up showing them a long time ago.

I think a lot depends on how the primaries shape up. The more that stand against him the more chance he has. I'd guess 33% vote Trump whatever and the rest are up for grabs. So in a field of 3 or more he wins. If its just him and RD then he has to fight for some votes.

But it really doesn't matter. He either wins then gets creamed in November or he loses and runs a 3rd party campaign and gets creamed along w/ Desantis in November. Once he opens up on Desantis the base will be right back in his corner though, it's just how cults work.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

But it really doesn't matter. He either wins then gets creamed in November or he loses and runs a 3rd party campaign and gets creamed along w/ Desantis in November. Once he opens up on Desantis the base will be right back in his corner though, it's just how cults work.

As I said. I think this is most likely. But Trump is undoubtedly in decline. He is not the force he was and there is a long way to go.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

But it really doesn't matter. He either wins then gets creamed in November or he loses and runs a 3rd party campaign and gets creamed along w/ Desantis in November. Once he opens up on Desantis the base will be right back in his corner though, it's just how cults work.

This does depend on who Democrats run in case it isn’t Biden, but the progressive wing has finally come around to realiz(s)ing sticking together with moderate blues provides a much better chance of getting what they want than splitting the party. Plus the progressive wing is made up of the too old and the too young or those who have already proven they can’t win. I see the same future for the GOP either splintering or not showing up as you do . . . but I’m afraid to believe in it.

 

[The perfect fumble]

Oh dear...

 

[buckshot]

This does depend on who Democrats run in case it isn’t Biden, but the progressive wing has finally come around to realiz(s)ing sticking together with moderate blues provides a much better chance of getting what they want than splitting the party. Plus the progressive wing is made up of the too old and the too young or those who have already proven they can’t win. I see the same future for the GOP either splintering or not showing up as you do . . . but I’m afraid to believe in it.

Who would your choice be? I'm leaning toward a governor if Biden doesn't want to run. Beshear, Pritzker, Inslee or Cooper all seem to fit the part. As far as the senate goes I really like Sherrod Brown but he has to defend his seat in Ohio next cycle. Sheldon Whitehouse would be my first non-governor choice though. He's a good speaker and very good at staying on message and giving great soundbites. I think his stance on dark money would appeal to independents and non-racist republicans. I could also easily be talked into Mark Kelly since anybody the GQP puts up will look like a joke standing next to an actual astronaut/military man. Warner from VA is okay too but is probably too bland.

You may notice I didn't pick any women and it's not a mistake. I don't see any scenario where a woman could get a fair shake at the top of a ticket. I don't even think the media realizes it but you just know they'll describe any woman as "shrill" and "emotional" while making fun of what she wears. I think the best strategy is straight, white male with a woman as VP. Val Demmings would be my choice there.