US Politics Thread

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BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Betting/polls aside - the race for President in the US appears to be tied. In particular, this race remains impossible to call because it (almost certainly) comes down to a how a handful of voters in a small number of swing states will vote - the rest of America has made up its mind and it's up to these few swing state voters. Who knows how these individuals will vote?

Another problem is that the vote is so close that a last-minute news item, however slight, might make all the difference.

I hope (of course) that Harris wins. And I think she probably holds a slight advantage, even now. But who knows? It could easily go either way.
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Harris will win.
Polls are unreliable as pollsters try to adjust for the underscoring of Republican voters.
Betting markets a poor predictor.
All indications on the ground favour Harris: enthusiasm, turnout to rallies, volunteers knocking on doors.
She is better looking than the orange liar, though he does have the bigger tits.
 
KS55 said:
Harris will win.
Polls are unreliable as pollsters try to adjust for the underscoring of Republican voters.
Betting markets a poor predictor.
All indications on the ground favour Harris: enthusiasm, turnout to rallies, volunteers knocking on doors.
She is better looking than the orange liar, though he does have the bigger tits.
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WIth any luck whatsoever, I won't have the opportunity to post an "I told you so" response (though I wouldn't in any case), 3 weeks or so hence :-).

As far as betting markets go... at some point if the odds get too far out of mathematical expectation, then there's money to be made... a lot of money... which will attract institutional investors with enough capital to right the odds. Thing is, I don't know if such institutional investors are interested in the presidential odds market (occurs only once every 4 years) and it would likely take a ton of money and independent polling analysis to obtain better predictions. So probably it's the average bloke who is betting on gut instinct that controls the odds.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
I welcome input from our non-American friends overseas. Even if their opinions are in disagreement with mine.

@Alvin-blue-qhd
With respect, your post contains opinions stated as fact, as well as ambiguous statements, whose meaning is unclear:
1) "Kamala may know nothing about how to rule America" - Opinion stated as fact. And I disagree.
2) " it's the "blinken, yellen and sullivan"s who run the country" - Ambiguous. I'm not sure what you mean, but I think I disagree.
3) "And that's the same with Trump" - Ambiguous/unclear. What's the same with Trump? I've actually no clue what you're attempting to say.

If you, Alvin, wish to clarify your post, I welcome that. Otherwise, your post seems to be another one of the "Trump is the same as Harris/Biden" posts which are obviously false.
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In my country, we have some media contents describes the process of dealing with America. Govenment vs Govenment. It gives me an impression that the way two governments make the decisions looks very similiar. Both sides heavily rely on intelligence agencies, technical personnel, and senior administrative officials. And both of them have the ability to make quick decisions.
I don't know if that should be called "deep state" which seems to be a negative word. But it makes me feel that it really doesn't matter who become the president. Sure different president brings different policy. I think even if Trump wins, there won't be too many big mistakes in US policy.
And Elon Musk gives me some confidences, it won't be too bad~~(He is a super star in my country!)
 
Alvin-blue-qhd said:
In my country, we have some media contents describes the process of dealing with America. Govenment vs Govenment. It gives me an impression that the way two governments make the decisions looks very similiar. Both sides heavily rely on intelligence agencies, technical personnel, and senior administrative officials. And both of them have the ability to make quick decisions.
I don't know if that should be called "deep state" which seems to be a negative word. But it makes me feel that it really doesn't matter who become the president. Sure different president brings different policy. I think even if Trump wins, there won't be too many big mistakes in US policy.
And Elon Musk gives me some confidences, it won't be too bad~~(He is a super star in my country!)
Click to expand...
What a crock of fucking shite those last two sentences are.
 
Alvin-blue-qhd said:
In my country, we have some media contents describes the process of dealing with America. Govenment vs Govenment. It gives me an impression that the way two governments make the decisions looks very similiar. Both sides heavily rely on intelligence agencies, technical personnel, and senior administrative officials. And both of them have the ability to make quick decisions.
I don't know if that should be called "deep state" which seems to be a negative word. But it makes me feel that it really doesn't matter who become the president. Sure different president brings different policy. I think even if Trump wins, there won't be too many big mistakes in US policy.
And Elon Musk gives me some confidences, it won't be too bad~~(He is a super star in my country!)
Click to expand...
Thanks, Alvin, for this clarification of your original post.

I must say, though, whether viewed through the lens of a die-hard MAGA Trump voter, or a Harris supporter, your post is completely off the mark.

There is a massive, unprecedented difference between the two candidates.

I would agree though, that in the past, say 16 years or so ago, pre-Trump, there wasn't a massive difference between electing a Republican as President versus electing a Democrat. Governance in the US is based on a balance of power between the Executive (the President leads this branch); the Judicial (the Supreme Court of the US leads this branch); and the Legislative (the Senate and the House of Congress form this branch). In the past, any President would accept the limitations imposed by shared governance between executive-judicial-legislative.

Trump, however, represents a huge departure from the above. Trump wants all power vested in the Executive. In other words, whatever Trump says is law - end of.

So, were Trump elected to President in 2024 what would happen? He'd certainly attempt to aggregate all power in the Executive. What's to stop him?

Normally, the Judicial branch would act as a curb. If the Executive steps too far out-of-line, they'd rule against the Executive in suits brought to their court. Trouble is, the Judicial branch is stacked in favor of MAGA. It's not clear how radical some of the right-leaning justices are... perhaps (or I think likely) some of them would balk against attempts of the Executive to seize all power; yet, it's likely that some Justices will retire in the next 4 years; should Trump be President, he'll attempt to install 100% loyalists.

As for the Legislative branch... should MAGA win control of both House and Senate, it's likely that they will simply enact whatever Trump wants. Congressmen and Senators are elected officials. Their chief motivation is to get re-elected. And if they were elected to support Trump... that's what they'll do.

In short, there's a massive, historically unique, difference between electing Harris for President versus electing Trump for President. Trump will attempt to change the system of governance in the US from Democracy to Autocracy.

As for your positive view with regard to Musk, unless you're in favor of Autocracy you're once more off the mark.

Musk is likely on the spectrum - somewhat autistic - incapable of feeling regard towards others. He has been extremely lucky in his financial ventures. He has garnered the support of the Right due to his political views.

As someone either incapable of or having markedly reduced capacity toward empathy for other human beings, Musk is another individual whom you'd never want in a position of governance.

Many of Musk's ideas are ridiculous; yet he'll back them 100% because their his and because he lacks the ability to listen to critical input. Check out my thread on Musk, especially the first few posts where many of his ideas are discredited.
 
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BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Thanks, Alvin, for this clarification of your original post.

I must say, though, whether viewed through the lens of a die-hard MAGA Trump voter, or a Harris supporter, your post is completely off the mark.

There is a massive, unprecedented difference between the two candidates.

I would agree though, that in the past, say 16 years or so ago, pre-Trump, there wasn't a massive difference between electing a Republican as President versus electing a Democrat. Governance in the US is based on a balance of power between the Executive (the President leads this branch); the Judicial (the Supreme Court of the US leads this branch); and the Legislative (the Senate and the House of Congress form this branch). In the past, any President would accept the limitations imposed by shared governance between executive-judicial-legislative.

Trump, however, represents a huge departure from the above. Trump wants all power vested in the Executive. In other words, whatever Trump says is law - end of.

So, were Trump elected to President in 2024 what would happen? He'd certainly attempt to aggregate all power in the Executive. What's to stop him?

Normally, the Judicial branch would act as a curb. If the Executive steps too far out-of-line, they'd rule against the Executive in suits brought to their court. Trouble is, the Judicial branch is stacked in favor of MAGA. It's not clear how radical some of the right-leaning justices are... perhaps (or I think likely) some of them would balk against attempts of the Executive to seize all power; yet, it's likely that some Justices will retire in the next 4 years; should Trump be President, he'll attempt to install 100% loyalists.

As for the Legislative branch... should MAGA win control of both House and Senate, it's likely that they will simply enact whatever Trump wants. Congressmen and Senators are elected officials. Their chief motivation is to get re-elected. And if they were elected to support Trump... that's what they'll do.

In short, there's a massive, historically unique, difference between electing Harris for President versus electing Trump for President. Trump will attempt to change the system of governance in the US from Democracy to Autocracy.

As for your positive view with regard to Musk, unless you're in favor of Autocracy you're once more off the mark.

Musk is likely on the spectrum - somewhat autistic - incapable of feeling regard towards others. He has been extremely lucky in his financial ventures. He has garnered the support of the Right due to his political views.

As someone either incapable of or having markedly reduced capacity toward empathy for other human beings, Musk is another individual whom you'd never want in a position of governance.

Many of Musk's ideas are ridiculous; yet he'll back them 100% because their his and because he lacks the ability to listen to critical input. Check out my thread on Musk, especially the first few posts where many of his ideas are discredited.
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Alvin lives in an autocracy, why wouldn’t he support the likes of Trump and Musk, and every other dictatorship for that matter.
 
BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Thanks, Alvin, for this clarification of your original post.

I must say, though, whether viewed through the lens of a die-hard MAGA Trump voter, or a Harris supporter, your post is completely off the mark.

There is a massive, unprecedented difference between the two candidates.

I would agree though, that in the past, say 16 years or so ago, pre-Trump, there wasn't a massive difference between electing a Republican as President versus electing a Democrat. Governance in the US is based on a balance of power between the Executive (the President leads this branch); the Judicial (the Supreme Court of the US leads this branch); and the Legislative (the Senate and the House of Congress form this branch). In the past, any President would accept the limitations imposed by shared governance between executive-judicial-legislative.

Trump, however, represents a huge departure from the above. Trump wants all power vested in the Executive. In other words, whatever Trump says is law - end of.

So, were Trump elected to President in 2024 what would happen? He'd certainly attempt to aggregate all power in the Executive. What's to stop him?

Normally, the Judicial branch would act as a curb. If the Executive steps too far out-of-line, they'd rule against the Executive in suits brought to their court. Trouble is, the Judicial branch is stacked in favor of MAGA. It's not clear how radical some of the right-leaning justices are... perhaps (or I think likely) some of them would balk against attempts of the Executive to seize all power; yet, it's likely that some Justices will retire in the next 4 years; should Trump be President, he'll attempt to install 100% loyalists.

As for the Legislative branch... should MAGA win control of both House and Senate, it's likely that they will simply enact whatever Trump wants. Congressmen and Senators are elected officials. Their chief motivation is to get re-elected. And if they were elected to support Trump... that's what they'll do.

In short, there's a massive, historically unique, difference between electing Harris for President versus electing Trump for President. Trump will attempt to change the system of governance in the US from Democracy to Autocracy.

As for your positive view with regard to Musk, unless you're in favor of Autocracy you're once more off the mark.

Musk is likely on the spectrum - somewhat autistic - incapable of feeling regard towards others. He has been extremely lucky in his financial ventures. He has garnered the support of the Right due to his political views.

As someone either incapable of or having markedly reduced capacity toward empathy for other human beings, Musk is another individual whom you'd never want in a position of governance.

Many of Musk's ideas are ridiculous; yet he'll back them 100% because their his and because he lacks the ability to listen to critical input. Check out my thread on Musk, especially the first few posts where many of his ideas are discredited.
Click to expand...

You are asking a Chinese guy for his opinion and then responding with a very US-centric answer. To the Chinese, I would imagine it makes very little difference? Or to me in Thailand, for that matter?
 
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