Speculative. 2020 was a unique year. There was an external incentive to mail vote and vote early.Have heard almost 100 million people have voted already. Poll says 25% of black males voted for Trump. Black women, however, seem to be remaining loyal to the Democrats.
Evidence seems that turnout is lower amongst minorities. If Trump wins 15% of the black vote and turnout is projected to be lower than 2020 amongst minorities, Harris cannot win.
It’s a big if though…
So comparing 2020 to this year makes no sense. It will be more comparable to 2016.