US Politics Thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter Ric
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moomba said:
Has anyone proclaimed a win to anyone yet?

Must have missed it.
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I think @SWP's back has been pretty confident. Not sure if he’s 100 percent predicted it. I am optimistic but unsure, though I do think if there’s a landslide (say, fewer than 200 EC votes for one side) it will be Harris who wins. For that to happen either TX or FL would need to flip blue I think.
 
The Future’s Blue! said:
To be clear, those of you proclaiming a Harris win, and the same for Trump, will have to account for themselves afterwards.

We’re all Blue, but different politics will need a response.
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To be clear I'm already organising a Kamala victory party, so hopefully that's me accounted for? Once confirmed my maga hat is going straight in the recycling.
 
Haha, follow my predictions… I’m never far wrong. Civil unrest is incoming.

Edit: you can go back to Zabaleta being shit lol

Edit: you can’t, too far back
 
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moomba said:
Is it too simplistic to say my that for the Trump side, they'd be better off stopping all the talk about how confident they are, and start telling their base that if they don't get out there and vote they may well lose.

Surely winning it is better than losing but being able to say the election was stolen.
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Maga don’t care if they lose. The object is to be able to create chaos after the election.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
As @SWP's back likes to remind us - the increasing bifurcation of gender voting patterns that was initiated since Roe v Wade was overturned has blown a hole in polling over the last 2 years. Repeatedly. In special elections, in mid-terms, in congressional elections, in gubernatorial elections - we've seen so many polls that haven't even been close to reality and they invariably underestimated women turning out to vote down anti-abortion sentiment.

Now... perhaps if I'm being generous, I'd suggest pollsters often update their methodology and could have done so for this cycle.

But even taking this into account, these gender divide numbers look similar to this stage 4 years ago in the swing states, but now the voting sentiment gap has widened significantly. So where is Trump's path to victory if we're seeing the same data as four years ago, suggesting the same people are turning out, but with worse implications for him? In the poll above it says "Trump's support among all white voters is 50%". Well then how does he win when that is only about 37% of the voting population? He is losing with literally every other demographic. Losing by a lot. And he'd basically need 40-50% of them.

I keep coming back round to this as my reasoning, but ignoring the polls completely, I don't know how Trump does better than 4 years ago, and I don't know how Harris does worse. The maths does not math.
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The last para is the basis for my prediction of a Harris win. Trump scored 47% last time compared to 50% for Biden. Where does Trump get extra votes? He also has to counteract Republicans and women voting Harris against their normal pick. As you say, the maths does not math.
 
FogBlueInSanFran said:
I can 100 percent guarantee Trump will CLAIM victory regardless and say the election was fixed if he loses, if that helps.
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Anything less than a 10-15% margin and it'll either be trump claiming foul play or the democrats accusing Putin, musk or fucking Ricky Gervais of influencing it.
 
I saw a mad thing last night, if it’s a draw and it can be, congress vote on the president and the republicans control that so Trump would be president, however the senate is even but Harris has the casting vote and they vote for the vice president so she could vote herself in!
 
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