US Politics Thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter Ric
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SkyBlueFlux said:
Piggy backing off this. Some interest early voting numbers. When you look at the registration of voters who have voted early:

View attachment 137110

It looks pretty much like there’s an even number of Rep and Dem early voters… but…

Some polling of early voters has been released today. Note that polling somebody after they’ve voted is a lot more accurate always, because you are asking about something that has already happened so people don’t have room to project or obfuscate. The early voting poll looks like this:

View attachment 137111

An average 24 pt lead.

What can we take from this? Well there’s some possibilities. Either:
- The party registration data is inaccurate. I think this is partly the case, some of it is based on how people voted in the primaries so there is some definite flex in there.
- The early voting polling is inaccurate. Again possible, but this is a series of polls by different pollsters all giving a 19-29 point lead, would seem unlikely that they’re all way out.
- Or both are accurate and therefore a lot of people who look statistically like Republicans in registration are actually voting Democrat. We know that this was the case for many people who’d supported Haley.

I think the truth is that it’s a combination of all of the above - but what is significant is that this early voting lead is more than double what Clinton had in 2016 (2020 not comparable given COVID).

I think it could still be close, but what I will say is the more data I see the more the odds of a complete Trump capitulation seem like a possibility. Far from certain though. Ultimately people need to get out and vote.
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This data isn't corrected for the fact that dems are much more likely to use early voting than Republicans for various reasons.

But that said the early vote is up equally with both parties from a registration point of view but not equal with men and women. The higher number of women and the indication that registered gop women are out voting for Harris fits with the way the Harris campaign have targeted the campaign. Its bad news for Trump. Very bad as his campaign doesn't really have a way out if the turn out from women is high.
 
Blue Maverick said:
I saw a mad thing last night, if it’s a draw and it can be, congress vote on the president and the republicans control that so Trump would be president, however the senate is even but Harris has the casting vote and they vote for the vice president so she could vote herself in!
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That would be worth seeing for the lols at maga (from this side of the Atlantic)
 
Blue Maverick said:
I saw a mad thing last night, if it’s a draw and it can be, congress vote on the president and the republicans control that so Trump would be president, however the senate is even but Harris has the casting vote and they vote for the vice president so she could vote herself in!
Click to expand...

I think it's near certain the Republicans are going to win the Senate back without it going to Harris's vote
 
Blue Maverick said:
I saw a mad thing last night, if it’s a draw and it can be, congress vote on the president and the republicans control that so Trump would be president, however the senate is even but Harris has the casting vote and they vote for the vice president so she could vote herself in!
Click to expand...
I thought it was the House of Reps that was the backstop. Worth checking.
 
Gareth Barry Conlon said:
This data isn't corrected for the fact that dems are much more likely to use early voting than Republicans for various reasons.
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This is the opposite of correct by the way. The Dems are more likely to use mail in ballots but the GoP, especially in rural areas are more likely to receive early in person votes.
 
Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
I'm sure they've interfered or tried their best to in every western election since 1945, just as we've tried to destabilise theirs.
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Right so when the Dems looked into that, it’s wasn’t some crazy conspiracy theory, unlike 2020 and Trump saying the election was stolen.

That’s the point, one thing was genuine, one was bollocks but you presented them as the same.

And fwiw, I wouldn’t let you in my gang anyway.
 
SWP's back said:
Right so when the Dems looked into that, it’s wasn’t some crazy conspiracy theory, unlike 2020 and Trump saying the election was stolen.

That’s the point, one thing was genuine, one was bollocks but you presented them as the same.

And fwiw, I wouldn’t let you in my gang anyway.
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I admire your effort but I wouldn’t waste your time, as we both know he’s not actually trying to have a good faith debate.
 
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