US Presidential Election, Nov 5th 2024

[SebastianBlue]

Yes but thats nearly always pro republican. Time will tell but Trump is getting back to 2016 numbers which is a shit show.

Not really.

We really only have 2020 for reference when it comes to heavy early voting and 2024 was never going to be close to that sort of early voting turnout because we aren’t in the middle of a pandemic—more people are going to vote in person.

Republicans almost always look like they are doing better than Democrats early on due to Republican votes largely being cast in lower density voting districts which are quicker to count and return votes (Red Mirage) and then the Democrats make up the distance as the night goes on (in to the next day) as higher votes in higher density areas (where most people actually live) are counted and reported (Blue Shift).

Probably worth posting this again.

 

[Mancity1980]

Pennsylvania coming in in 15 minutes. Big early indicator.

 

[madloaf]

Far from a done deal…

Let's hope so

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

But theyy have vast rural areas - but yes they are swing states. I think Harris blew her chances there though as Border 'Tsar' in Biden's government.

Mate Vegas and Reno have 90% of Nevada's population.

Phoenix and Tucson are about 70% of AZ. These are the MSAs now, not just the cities proper.

 

[moomba]

Exit polls in Pennsylvania promising for Harris.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

NC absolutely key for her. If Trump swings GA and she swings NC they cancel out.

Then WI becomes key . . . all assuming PA stays blue.

And then there's IA . . .

 

[BlueAnorak]

Mate Vegas and Reno have 90% of Nevada's population.

Phoenix and Tucson are about 70% of AZ. These are the MSAs now, not just the cities proper.

And what makes what I said wrong? Illegal immigration is a very big issue in both those states.

 

[MCFC1993]

Pennsylvania coming in in 15 minutes. Big early indicator.

Yeah that's the big indicator even the bookies don't know which way it'll go. If it shows strong for Harris early on she'll become favourite.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Can't be arsed watching what is essentially looking like an exercise in russian interference in the lives of gun toting racist/sexist pigs

 

[SebastianBlue]

In Urban areas - but there is a difference between metropolitan, urban and rural voting patterns.
Piling up the votes in the big US cities does not an election win.
Only Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina have really big metropolitan areas in swing states and fairly recent swing states.

But urban areas have more people, so they are going to have a more significant impact on election results. You can have lower turnout than previous elections in a city with 500,000 people, but most vote for Harris, and record turnout for a town of 5,000 people, with most voting for Trump. The latter is not going to beat out the former.

And that density differential is what is largely behind the Red Mirage and Blue Shift.

Bookies normally get it right. Especially by the time polls are closing.

The bookies were generally pretty wrong for the 2020 election, even as polls closed.

Again, it is important to remember that the current betting markets are dominated by the same people that actively trade equity markets (and meme stocks), who heavily favour Trump (the culture itself is very MAGA friendly). Many of them are full blown gambling addicts; they compulsively place bets. Many others treat their bets like meme stock pumping.

Most Harris supporters will have never even thought of placing a bet on her winning, much less do it.