US Tariff War

Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
I have an open mind, not an empty one so I'm not going to come at any issue with a 'take' unless I know a fair bit about it. I'm interested to see how these tariffs play out, and I'm not about to substitute a hatred (or love) of Trump for a considered opinion. You infect so many threads with your boring 'take' of everything through an anti Trump lens can you not just let this one develop?
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Says the wummer with a mind so open we can see right through it.
 
End game?

Trump sees the ill effects of the tariffs and declares victory! Says fentanyl coming across the border has been almost stopped, because Mexico and Canada “did the job they should have been doing!” and fentanyl deaths are down (regardless of the reality.

It’s not about TRUTH and REALITY, it’s about OPTICS and TOUTING WINS!

He’s a ****.
 
Alan Harper's Tash said:
Trump doesn’t care about dead soldiers, they’re just losers.

He also probably holidays on those yachts.
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He doesn't holiday - he lives at his own holiday resort and plays golf as often as he can .......... and occasionally does President type stuff whilst sitting up all night posting on Truth Social
 
metalblue said:
Size of tariffs suggest this is intended as a sharp shock rather than planned to be sustained.

Sustained will cause recession in Canada.
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Canadians are going to go on a BUY CANADA binge and eschew American anything and everything.

They’re nice people, but they DO NOT like to be bullied by America, and will have no problem high sticking you against the boards!

So much for NAFTA, eh?!
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
The problem with this energy production business is that the US can't just "boost it", because they don't have it. There are mineral deposits and natural resources that the US simply does not sit on top of. One of those is heavy crude, for which currently the US gets about three quarters of its supply from Canada. The US produces lighter crude, which is more expensive so it exports it for a higher price.

There are other suppliers of heavy crude in the middle-east and Venezuela, but up until now the US has benefited from importing a huge proportion of Canada's crude at a discounted rate, feeding that into refineries in the Mid-west and getting super cheap prices as a result.

There is no real replacement for that which is as cost-effective as Canadian crude - US products refined from CAD oil are about as cheap as it gets. Trump's blind hope is that Canadian producers choose to eat the tariff cost by reducing prices further because they can't afford to lose the trade from the US. But given this is one area where Canada has significant leverage and can really hurt the US, I can't see their government just letting that happen.

It is intriguing because this kind of really dramatic action with sweeping tariffs is like a relic of the past. Bringing them into our 21st century global economy where there is so much interconnection and competition makes it really hard to see how they can be anything other than an act of self-harm. But they will cause plenty of harm to others along the way... and maybe that is the point of it.
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What if it's deliberately setting course for a depression, with a ready-made "solution"?

encyclopedia.ushmm.org

Great Depression

Learn about causes, scope, and impacts of the Great Depression, including how it played a role in Adolf Hitler's emergence as a viable political leader in Germany.
encyclopedia.ushmm.org encyclopedia.ushmm.org
 
ChicagoBlue said:
Canadians are going to go on a BUY CANADA binge and eschew American anything and everything.

They’re nice people, but they DO NOT like to be bullied by America, and will have no problem high sticking you against the boards!

So much for NAFTA, eh?!
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The tariffs and Trudeau’s quoted retaliation is estimated to cost 200-400bps in GDP for an economy predicted to grow 180bps before all this. Outside the pandemic Canada has seen sustained growth for what 15 years now? Lovely people they may be mate but that reality will hurt.

However early market reaction suggests sentiment is it will not last long. What a way to treat an ally though and like you say two fingers up to NAFTA!!!
 
ChicagoBlue said:
Canadians are going to go on a BUY CANADA binge and eschew American anything and everything.

They’re nice people, but they DO NOT like to be bullied by America, and will have no problem high sticking you against the boards!

So much for NAFTA, eh?!
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With a bit of luck, the whole world will choose non-American goods.

If Ryanair stopped buying from Boeing... I wonder if there's a get-out for their $40bn order for 300 737 MAX 10s
 
metalblue said:
The tariffs and Trudeau’s quoted retaliation is estimated to cost 200-400bps in GDP for an economy predicted to grow 180bps before all this. Outside the pandemic Canada has seen sustained growth for what 15 years now? Lovely people they may be mate but that reality will hurt.

However early market reaction suggests sentiment is it will not last long. What a way to treat an ally though and like you say two fingers up to NAFTA!!!
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I think GDP calls are a tad early given we have not seen anything yet. I trust Economists as much as I’d trust a Dipper to “mind yer car, mister?”!!!
 
ChicagoBlue said:
Canadians are going to go on a BUY CANADA binge and eschew American anything and everything.

They’re nice people, but they DO NOT like to be bullied by America, and will have no problem high sticking you against the boards!

So much for NAFTA, eh?!
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Why would anyone do a trade deal with Trump? Monday deal, Tuesday break deal.
 
Vic said:
Why would anyone do a trade deal with Trump? Monday deal, Tuesday break deal.
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Pretty much how I see it.
I mean, what do I know, but it’s the one flaw I saw in this strategy from a few pages back.

As I’ve said though I’m no economist, so I’m very interested to see where the logic in this(for Trump and Co. ) lies.
 
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