I've been keeping a spreadsheet for this season, keeping track of how we're doing against various criteria and thought after last night might be a good time to share it.
I started with the premise that, based on analysis of the last few seasons, we might need 87 points to win the title, 52 at home and 35 away. That gave an average points per game (ppg) requirement of 2.74 at home and 1.84 away. So far, we should be on just under 34 points and we actually have 38 so we're 4 points ahead of target and therefore potentially on for 91 points as things stand.
Looking at the 35 away points, we've already got 17 of those so need 6 wins from 11 games (which include trips to Wigan, Sunderland, West Brom, Villa, Norwich, Wolves, Swansea, Stoke & Everton, as well as Arsenal & Newcastle) to make that 35 point target. Any points more than that will obviously offset any we might lose at home as, according to my model, we can only drop 5.
In addition, I've also measured the points gained compared to the equivalent game last season, with the games against the promoted clubs being compared to the ones against the relegated clubs last season. On that measure, we're still 9 points ahead based on the equivalent games.
So although last night was a disappointment, we're still well on track on every measure. If I changed the ppg required so that it was skewed between top and bottom half teams, then we'd probably be even more comfortable.
