Where to improve? (Also potential dominance plus expected goals analysis)

[Bluemoonrises]

Not a Bravo fan but can’t think how he cost us 10 goals last year

bravo made an average of 1.08 saves per goal, meaning his save percentage was around 54%. The goals expected only takes into account the quality of the shot, meaning that bravo didn’t necessarily face significantly better shots than other teams (there are flaws with the stat but 54% is pretty pathetic. It Even be an outlier among the worst in the league.Good shot stopping goalkeepers save around 70% while an average premier league goalkeeper should be in the mid 60s. The fact that the expected goals against were so low means that the shots he faced were actually easier too save that average, which really puts it into perspective.

I mean tbh he’s not horrible, he just had a horrible season. This arrival is from last years new year and it sums it up nicely

http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/38684434

 

[jimharri]

Christ, I read that opening post and my clothes were back in fashion by the time I'd finished it!

 

[Bluemoonrises]

Total football mate. Kante's not a good enough footballer to play in our system

Yeah, i understand your point haha. I do prefer Fernandinho over kante in OUR setup. But in terms of in a midfield trio, under regular circumstances I could see someone choosing kante as the DM because he is probably the best at interceptions and whatnot in Europe, and he isn’t limited in terms of playing with the ball, as he’s created more chances and completes more key passes than dinho per game, but ALOT of that is due to setup and the different roles each player plays (I see Fernandinho as a heartbeat more than kante of that makes sense). Ball control and dribbling wise, and composure wise He just isn’t on the level of Fernandinho which we require, which makes umr pick Fernandinho. Also Fernandinho could legitimately play the back 4 to the middle three to striker, which kante probably could not do. I will say that I could see myself ranking Dinho anywhere from 1-5 as a DM in the world, which is high praise in itself

 

[Bluemoonrises]

For me we need another right-winger to compete with Sterling. Sterling’s improved this season but we shouldn’t have to worry about whether he’ll turn up at Anfield or in some of the big games. I think that’s one of the reasons why Pep went in for Mahrez. That would allow Bernardo to be played more centrally (if Kev or Dave are injured) and Gundogan could challenge Fernandinho for the centre mid spot. After that, it’s just a case of getting the best out of the players we’ve already got.

I feel that with the squad harmony being so high, there’s a thin fine line between competition and causing unrest. Competition is good but in a team like this where pep’s been rotating REALLY well, adding too much might backfire if that makes sense.

We definitely do need a successor to Fernandinho, I don’t feel comfortable with gundogan in place of him u know what I mean

I don’t know who could replace Silva. The touch and vision aren’t necessarily the problem, as whole both are top 5 in the world easily it’s more about the ability to just run the show. I don’t know anyone who could do that in the world other than Messi, and if we get freaking Messi we put him up top and waltz to 10CLs in a row

 

[Bayblue]

bravo made an average of 1.08 saves per goal, meaning his save percentage was around 54%. The goals expected only takes into account the quality of the shot, meaning that bravo didn’t necessarily face significantly better shots than other teams (there are flaws with the stat but 54% is pretty pathetic. It Even be an outlier among the worst in the league.Good shot stopping goalkeepers save around 70% while an average premier league goalkeeper should be in the mid 60s. The fact that the expected goals against were so low means that the shots he faced were actually easier too save that average, which really puts it into perspective.

I mean tbh he’s not horrible, he just had a horrible season. This arrival is from last years new year and it sums it up nicely

http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/38684434

I get the theory but tell me the actual ten goals he was at fault for - you were very clear that you blame him, not the defence.

Yours,
Claudio’s dad

 

[wagonman]

I bet Mr Bluemoonrises can type with more than two fingers...

JJ

 

[jamesha]

Interesting topic. Improvements I think could happen are:
Better crossing from Walker
More goals from Leroy
More goals from distance
More aerial power up front
Hopefully with coaching the first three will arrive. I must admit I would love to see a powerful centre forward who could play our game and dominate in the air. Not sure he exists though.

 

[Citizen in Pakistan]

We can definately take our wing play up to another level. Plus more goals from sane and sterling. A tall striker will give more versatility to our forward line as well.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

We miss an awful lot of chances.

When you look at the goals scored by forwards in teams who create our amount of chances you see 30-35-50 goals scored by the front three players.

We’ve got a fair few games to go but our front three have scored just 13-21-30 this season. Even though that’s a career best for two of them, it’s very low for the amount of chances we create.

All three of our main forwards have fairly average shot accuracy rates:
Kun 56%
Sterling 53%
Sané 51%
(Jesus’ is 73%!)

The good thing is two of them are 22 and 23 years old. By the time they reach the start of their prime years come 26 years old they’ll certainly be a lot higher.

 

[Sir Joe Aguero]

We've played for most the year without an out-and-out LB. Stones had a bit of patchy form, Kompany's had injury problems, Silva's obviously had his personal issues, Aguero was in a car crash, Jesus went a fair few games without scoring and then got injured. Considering all that, we've absolutely smashed it.

We can, and will, improve (which is scary).

I think we need a striker, a DM and a CM. Problem is I can't see anyone who could fill Silva or Fernandinho's boots.