City Have Bookies Running for Cover

[burnley blue mcfc]

we will win the prem this season im 100% certain, we wont win it unbeaten though

 

[Scooby Blue]

^^
but it isn't a coin toss so probability doesn't work as with random sequencing.

^^ I don't understand your point.

Are you saying probability works in other aspects of life but is "suspended" when applied to football matches ?

The THEORY of what I am saying is a mathematical fact...the actual answer you will achieve will depend on a series of assumptions about the likelihood of a particular football team winning or drawing a series of matches...where such issues as injuries / form /suspensions ...will affect the actual odds in each match.

e.g. I cannot predict NOW what the odds will be for City not to lose the home game vs Utd...but I was just making the point that plugging in some "reasonable" odds for a series of 27 games...will give you an idea of how difficult it is for a team to remain unbeaten over such a sequence.
i.e. once every 40 years type frequency.

Mate, are you being serious? Your theory is bollocks in practice. Your theory would give the same odds for City, Norwich or Nantwich Town.

Your theory is perfectly reasonable for things such as a coin toss where the outcome is random. A football match is not. Your theory suggests that to continue "not losing" gets tougher as opposed to the real world where by variables such as confidence/opposition quality etc get in the way.

There is nothing wrong with the mechanics of your maths in the above, it is simply the fact that you have tried to attach it to a real world situation that is more complex than your model allows for.

What on earth are you talking about???

If you are in a hole...stop digging would be my advice.

You are aware there are such things as odds for football matches ???
e.g. for next set of PL fixtures:
City (as league leaders) to remain unbeaten vs Newcastle: 90%
Utd (as Champions) not to lose away at Swansea : 88%
Arsenal (not in top 4) not to lose at Norwich: 80%

(depending on who they are playing)...a bottom 4 team may only be a 50% shot not to lose a particular game...
For such a team even going 3 games unbeaten is a challenge: 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5.
i.e. 12 % chance.
For a top of the table team (who goes into each game as 90% favourite not to lose) the odds of remaining unbeaten at outset of sequence are 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9
i.e. 73 % chance.
i.e. a top of the table team is 6x as likely to enjoy a 3 match unbeaten sequence as a bottom of the table team.

So how am I equating City with Norwich ???

The odds of a team like Wigan remaining unbeaten from now until end of season are off the scale.
Betfair is currently quoting a market of 24/1 (to back) 33/1 (to lay) for City to remain unbeaten for rest of season.

My own personal calculation of odds suggests that 24/1 is not great value...but it is tempting if you fancy City to survive away games vs Liverpool + Chelsea...as we will then have played most difficult games away....and betting interest will begin to grow in backing us for unbeaten season.

i.e. I would back us at 24/1 with a view to unwinding bet at tighter odds after Xmas.

 

[SWP's back]

I'm not in a hole. You are.

 

[Scooby Blue]

I'm not in a hole. You are.

I've been trying to explain where the odds of 24/1 for city to remain unbeaten come from....

what your contribution is....I can't quite work out.

 

[muscles]

Is this University Challenge? It is not going to happen. Why debate it.

 

[scorer]

Is this University Challenge? It is not going to happen. Why debate it.

Hmmm lets revisit this thread after chelsea away? If we're unbeaten then the odds in the Bookies will be on the floor.

 

[bernabias home shirt]

^^ I don't understand your point.

Are you saying probability works in other aspects of life but is "suspended" when applied to football matches ?

The THEORY of what I am saying is a mathematical fact...the actual answer you will achieve will depend on a series of assumptions about the likelihood of a particular football team winning or drawing a series of matches...where such issues as injuries / form /suspensions ...will affect the actual odds in each match.

e.g. I cannot predict NOW what the odds will be for City not to lose the home game vs Utd...but I was just making the point that plugging in some "reasonable" odds for a series of 27 games...will give you an idea of how difficult it is for a team to remain unbeaten over such a sequence.
i.e. once every 40 years type frequency.

Mate, are you being serious? Your theory is bollocks in practice. Your theory would give the same odds for City, Norwich or Nantwich Town.

Your theory is perfectly reasonable for things such as a coin toss where the outcome is random. A football match is not. Your theory suggests that to continue "not losing" gets tougher as opposed to the real world where by variables such as confidence/opposition quality etc get in the way.

There is nothing wrong with the mechanics of your maths in the above, it is simply the fact that you have tried to attach it to a real world situation that is more complex than your model allows for.

What on earth are you talking about???

If you are in a hole...stop digging would be my advice.

You are aware there are such things as odds for football matches ???
e.g. for next set of PL fixtures:
City (as league leaders) to remain unbeaten vs Newcastle: 90%
Utd (as Champions) not to lose away at Swansea : 88%
Arsenal (not in top 4) not to lose at Norwich: 80%

(depending on who they are playing)...a bottom 4 team may only be a 50% shot not to lose a particular game...
For such a team even going 3 games unbeaten is a challenge: 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5.
i.e. 12 % chance.
For a top of the table team (who goes into each game as 90% favourite not to lose) the odds of remaining unbeaten at outset of sequence are 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9
i.e. 73 % chance.
i.e. a top of the table team is 6x as likely to enjoy a 3 match unbeaten sequence as a bottom of the table team.

So how am I equating City with Norwich ???

The odds of a team like Wigan remaining unbeaten from now until end of season are off the scale.
Betfair is currently quoting a market of 24/1 (to back) 33/1 (to lay) for City to remain unbeaten for rest of season.

My own personal calculation of odds suggests that 24/1 is not great value...but it is tempting if you fancy City to survive away games vs Liverpool + Chelsea...as we will then have played most difficult games away....and betting interest will begin to grow in backing us for unbeaten season.

i.e. I would back us at 24/1 with a view to unwinding bet at tighter odds after Xmas.

The betfair market for being undefeated is just a novelty & you cant make much money at the moment...you can only have a tenner on at 24/1,people are just totally unsure about city & dont want to catch a cold...like you said theres people willing to take 29/1-33/1 at this present moment...

I have had some bets at larger prices just for fun,after liverpool & chelsea if we keep unbeaten people will be shocked at what our price will then be!

 

[Scooby Blue]

"I have had some bets at larger prices just for fun,after liverpool & chelsea if we keep unbeaten people will be shocked at what our price will then be! "

^^^

I have just re-calculated odds using following price / odds ranges:
Home games: 82% (toughest) - 97% (easiest)
Away games: 71% (toughest) - 90% (easiest)

(These are slightly tighter odds than my original back-of-the-envelope ones)

They reflect current match odds on Betfair for "dominant" teams in their leagues (e.g. Barcelona / R Madrid / Bayern Munich) playing games vs top 3 / midtable / bottom 3 etc.

These numbers give City a 4.2% chance of remaining unbeaten i.e. justifies odds of 23/1.
But half of those odds are accounted for by next 4 games.
i.e. Odds will collapse to 10/1 (or less...allowing for momentum / re-pricing effect) if we are still unbeaten after Chelsea game.

*Disclosure*: I am very active in football bets + especially Man City related markets on Betfair...and in recent seasons have often had interest on both sides of the price for markets such as making top 4 / making top 3 etc.
I currently have meaningful positions in winning league / making top 4...and smaller positions in remaining unbeaten bets...which I hedge on a pro-active basis.

 

[Blumers Bloomers]

a mate of mine works in the food industry and told me that anchor foods were going to be taken over by Lurpack. went to ladbrooks to put a fiver on but was told that they didn't accept spread betting.....

Ha!

Mate of mine put a daft one on at the beginning of the season, all four trophies - 2500-1............

 

[Blue Blood CTID]

Not to bothered about the unbeaten run as long as we are champions at the end. Two tough games away at Anfield and Stamford bridge. I would rather lose to Liverpool and beat Chelsea than draw both matches and remain unbeaten.