Post Match Thread: Election 2017

[hilts]

I'm glad you said that I was beginning to wonder.
That said I think the policies are too extreme for people to vote for.
For example, I could have voted for a McDonnellesc budget if lots of it was turned down. No trading tax (that is an instant 2%+ tax on peoples pensions) and no more than 1% rise in Corporation tax per anum. It still wouldn't deal with companies exporting profits by buying Irish, Luxemburg or Tax Haven air (along with other goods) for much more than the market rate. Only a turnover tax for corporations stops that - A great UKIP policy BTW - I fail to see why other parties have not adopted it it renders tax evasion totally useless!

Not an expert but wouldn't a turnover tax cause problems with reinvestment or even cripple companies that are not making much or even any profit?

 

[BlueAnorak]

The votes that the SNP lost were in previously Tory seats so they weren't 'new' votes and the Tories were always going to be the beneficiaries of an SNP collapse.

Secondly, you read the FT don't you? Did you see the chart in Matt Singh's article showing the very strong correlation between UKIP losses and Tory gains? There were quite a few seats, particularly in traditional Labour voting areas like the North East where there was an apparent swing from Lab to Con, which was the result of the majority of the UKIP vote defecting to the Conservatives. @BlueAnorak also needs to see that chart.

I saw the chart. I don't agree with the analysis I'm more prepared to believe the BBC stat chap who went through in great detail abut 4am that showed how the UKIP vote was going back to labour as much as it was going to the Tories and the further south you went the more prevalent this became.

 

[The blue phantom]

Biggest load of self righteous bollocks i jave ever had the displeasure to read, and thats sayoing something. Is it too difficult to understand that many in the labour movement thought blair was a disaster, a warmonger and a puppet of murdoch? You despuse the left and you fear it because it is different and you are lacking the comprehension that the hundreds of thousands on benefits or homeless despise the tories and anything tory light. They would rather wait for a true left govt and get behind the finest socialist leader in a generation.
Spare us your endless ramblings because you are utterly wrong and offensive with it.what is the point in hoping for the next blair if he is just tory lite? None at all.

Great post.
What is it with him and the left. He never has a good word. I remember him praising cameron though.

 

[robbieh]

I think he got it bang on.

Worst Tory campaign in several generations and his lot are celebrating second like Arsenal players in a changing room.

Tories vote Tory however inept their leaders are.

Had Owen Smith run the Labour campaign, however useless May was, the Conservatives would have had a landslide. Non Tory voters needed to get enthused and Corbyn provided that.

 

[cleavers]

Did you see the chart in Matt Singh's article showing the very strong correlation between UKIP losses and Tory gains? There were quite a few seats, particularly in traditional Labour voting areas like the North East where there was an apparent swing from Lab to Con, which was the result of the majority of the UKIP vote defecting to the Conservatives. @BlueAnorak also needs to see that chart.

This is a great illustration of the change from Conservative to Labour....

Apologies to those who have seen it, but the greatest changes in Labours favour are in the south and southeast, particularly London, otherwise some quite mixed results, even in constituents next to each other.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

I saw the chart. I don't agree with the analysis I'm more prepared to believe the BBC stat chap who went through in great detail abut 4am that showed how the UKIP vote was going back to labour as much as it was going to the Tories and the further south you went the more prevalent this became.

Having looked at some individual results I'd be inclined to agree with you but I assume he's crunched the numbers. It would be nice to see the seats individually.

It was a very regional variation. The key is what impact it had on the final result though. Taking the Northampton North & South seats for example, Labour benefited more than the Tories from the collapse in the UKIP vote but in neither case was it quite enough for them to win the seat. Same in Norwich North.

In a lot of seats where they benefited majorly from UKIP voters, they were safe seats one way or the other anyway.

 

[blue cigar]

Great post.
What is it with him and the left. He never has a good word. I remember him praising cameron though.

No idea but it's very strange. Nobody on the left is claiming victory because it wasn't. It was a building block and considering the media assault in Corbyn and the tory protest vote in scotland I'd say it's as much as the left could hope for taking into account where the party was last year. I see the calls for May to resign from within the party have already started, this could be interesting.

 

[Chippy_boy]

This is a great illustration of the change from Conservative to Labour....

Apologies to those who have seen it, but the greatest changes in Labours favour are in the south and southeast, particularly London, otherwise some quite mixed results, even in constituents next to each other.

What a surprise, not. Party in power after 6 years and deep austerity, loses popularity. Who'd have thought it.

The actual surprise is they didn't lose.

Would you HONESTLY have expected a swing to the right after 6 years of cuts and no wage increases? It's a wonder the monster raving loony party didn't gain seats.

 

[Chippy_boy]

That's OK. I'm surmising the number 1 priority is to give some appearance of continuity in the short run and to allow Brexit negotiations to start as planned. Otherwise the party's embarrassment would be even more acute than it is now.

However, she's dead meat and it can only be a matter of time before the inevitable leadership bids are launched. That's probably another reason for buying a few months, so that the ground can be prepared to field a selection of credible candidates. The big noises probably won't want Bozza to get too clear a sight of goal.

Agree with both of you.

I guess the other possibility is she might just quit? Deeply unpopular, no friends and mountainous challenges ahead? I'd pack up, go home and let my loaded spouse (i.e. hers, mine isn't loaded ;-) ) earn the corn for a while. Do some ironing and stuff.

 

[cleavers]

What a surprise, not. Party in power after 6 years and deep austerity, loses popularity. Who'd have thought it.

The actual surprise is they didn't lose.

Would you HONESTLY have expected a swing to the right after 6 years of cuts and no wage increases? It's a wonder the monster raving loony party didn't gain seats.

Actually if you bother to have a proper look, without jumping in all guns blazing, you might see some trends in there, particularly London and the SE, often the tory heartland, its a far bigger shift than in other areas of England, especially the north of England, considered a labour heartland in general. Remember London and the SE weren't generally in favour of leaving the EU either, so its not only the UKIP share of the vote that moved.

Its a really interesting graphic on the shift between the two parties, and it doesn't take into account any other party, even in Scotland.

The real reason for the shift was not austerity, or length of time in power, imho, it was an inept decision to have an election in the first place, at a difficult time for the country, followed by an inept campaign, and from the starting position they started with, its a bloody great surprise they made such a mess of it.

I think its unlikely that labour will be able to sustain that position long term in London and the SE, so from a labour point of view in the region, it could be as good as it gets.