The "Trajectory"

[tamworthblue]

Since GC came out and told us the target for this season was 70 points and that the trajectory was clearly below this, I thought I'd check it out.

A good way to do this is to use a moving average (MA) to predict future points (on recent past form) and add these future points to those already in the bag. After the Spuds game we had played 16 so use an 8 game MA.

Game Pts Total Pts. 8MA Games Left Finish Pts
1 3 3
2 3 6
3 3 9
4 3 12
5 0 12
6 3 15
7 1 16
8 1 17 2.125 30 17+64=81
9 1 18 1.875 29 18+54=72
10 1 19 1.625 28 19+46=65
11 1 20 1.375 27 20+37=57
12 1 21 1.125 26 21+29=50
13 1 22 1.250 25 22+31=53
14 3 25 1.250 24 25+30=55
15 1 26 1.250 23 26+29=55
16 0 26 1.125 22 26+25=51

Those blues saying that Hughes was on target might want a rethink?

 

[bluevengence]

Since GC came out and told us the target for this season was 70 points and that the trajectory was clearly below this, I thought I'd check it out.

A good way to do this is to use a moving average (MA) to predict future points (on recent past form) and add these future points to those already in the bag. After the Spuds game we had played 16 so use an 8 game MA.

Game Pts Total Pts. 8MA Games Left Finish Pts
1 3 3
2 3 6
3 3 9
4 3 12
5 0 12
6 3 15
7 1 16
8 1 17 2.125 30 17+64=81
9 1 18 1.875 29 18+54=72
10 1 19 1.625 28 19+46=65
11 1 20 1.375 27 20+37=57
12 1 21 1.125 26 21+29=50
13 1 22 1.250 25 22+31=53
14 3 25 1.250 24 25+30=55
15 1 26 1.250 23 26+29=55
16 0 26 1.125 22 26+25=51

Those blues saying that Hughes was on target might want a rethink?

?

 

[DontLookBackInAnger]

Since GC came out and told us the target for this season was 70 points and that the trajectory was clearly below this, I thought I'd check it out.

A good way to do this is to use a moving average (MA) to predict future points (on recent past form) and add these future points to those already in the bag. After the Spuds game we had played 16 so use an 8 game MA.

Game Pts Total Pts. 8MA Games Left Finish Pts
1 3 3
2 3 6
3 3 9
4 3 12
5 0 12
6 3 15
7 1 16
8 1 17 2.125 30 17+64=81
9 1 18 1.875 29 18+54=72
10 1 19 1.625 28 19+46=65
11 1 20 1.375 27 20+37=57
12 1 21 1.125 26 21+29=50
13 1 22 1.250 25 22+31=53
14 3 25 1.250 24 25+30=55
15 1 26 1.250 23 26+29=55
16 0 26 1.125 22 26+25=51

Those blues saying that Hughes was on target might want a rethink?

Interesting seeing as we finished on 50 points last season, 51 if this followed through this season.

 

[Project]

I guess the real issue is whether this blip in form was just that - a blip; or whether it was a true indication of our trajectory. Clearly Khaldoon thought the latter.

 

[tamworthblue]

I know, it screwed all the spacing up! All you need to know is that the bold numbers are the predicted end of season points after that particular game. 81 after game 8, 51 after game 16 (spuds).

 

[bluevengence]

I know, it screwed all the spacing up! All you need to know is that the bold numbers are the predicted end of season points after that particular game. 81 after game 8, 51 after game 16 (spuds).

Oh right!!

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

Since GC came out and told us the target for this season was 70 points and that the trajectory was clearly below this, I thought I'd check it out.

A good way to do this is to use a moving average (MA) to predict future points (on recent past form) and add these future points to those already in the bag. After the Spuds game we had played 16 so use an 8 game MA.

Game Pts Total Pts. 8MA Games Left Finish Pts
1 3 3
2 3 6
3 3 9
4 3 12
5 0 12
6 3 15
7 1 16
8 1 17 2.125 30 17+64=81
9 1 18 1.875 29 18+54=72
10 1 19 1.625 28 19+46=65
11 1 20 1.375 27 20+37=57
12 1 21 1.125 26 21+29=50
13 1 22 1.250 25 22+31=53
14 3 25 1.250 24 25+30=55
15 1 26 1.250 23 26+29=55
16 0 26 1.125 22 26+25=51

Those blues saying that Hughes was on target might want a rethink?

A moving average is not a predictor of future trends. It's a way of flattening out short term movements and shwoing longer term historic trends.

I used a more useful one. I assumed 2.3 points per home game and 1.4 per away game to get us to 70 points at the end of the season.

After 8 at home and 9 away we should have had 31 points on that basis and we actually have 29. If we were to win on Saturday we would have 32 against a target of 33.3. Not a million miles away.

 

[mammutly]

Interesting. It would clearly have taken a massive turnaround to achieve the 70 point target and there was very little sign at all of that happening.

41 points would be needed from 21 remaining games, which would mean winning the majority. Not impossible, but very unlikely the way things were going.

 

[DontLookBackInAnger]

Since GC came out and told us the target for this season was 70 points and that the trajectory was clearly below this, I thought I'd check it out.

A good way to do this is to use a moving average (MA) to predict future points (on recent past form) and add these future points to those already in the bag. After the Spuds game we had played 16 so use an 8 game MA.

Game Pts Total Pts. 8MA Games Left Finish Pts
1 3 3
2 3 6
3 3 9
4 3 12
5 0 12
6 3 15
7 1 16
8 1 17 2.125 30 17+64=81
9 1 18 1.875 29 18+54=72
10 1 19 1.625 28 19+46=65
11 1 20 1.375 27 20+37=57
12 1 21 1.125 26 21+29=50
13 1 22 1.250 25 22+31=53
14 3 25 1.250 24 25+30=55
15 1 26 1.250 23 26+29=55
16 0 26 1.125 22 26+25=51

Those blues saying that Hughes was on target might want a rethink?

A moving average is not a predictor of future trends. It's a way of flattening out short term movements and shwoing longer term historic trends.

I used a more useful one. I assumed 2.3 points per home game and 1.4 per away game to get us to 70 points at the end of the season.

After 8 at home and 9 away we should have had 31 points on that basis and we actually have 29. If we were to win on Saturday we would have 32 against a target of 33.3. Not a million miles away.

and IF we lost over 10% away.

 

[tamworthblue]

Since GC came out and told us the target for this season was 70 points and that the trajectory was clearly below this, I thought I'd check it out.

A good way to do this is to use a moving average (MA) to predict future points (on recent past form) and add these future points to those already in the bag. After the Spuds game we had played 16 so use an 8 game MA.

Game Pts Total Pts. 8MA Games Left Finish Pts
1 3 3
2 3 6
3 3 9
4 3 12
5 0 12
6 3 15
7 1 16
8 1 17 2.125 30 17+64=81
9 1 18 1.875 29 18+54=72
10 1 19 1.625 28 19+46=65
11 1 20 1.375 27 20+37=57
12 1 21 1.125 26 21+29=50
13 1 22 1.250 25 22+31=53
14 3 25 1.250 24 25+30=55
15 1 26 1.250 23 26+29=55
16 0 26 1.125 22 26+25=51

Those blues saying that Hughes was on target might want a rethink?

A moving average is not a predictor of future trends. It's a way of flattening out short term movements and shwoing longer term historic trends.

I used a more useful one. I assumed 2.3 points per home game and 1.4 per away game to get us to 70 points at the end of the season.

After 8 at home and 9 away we should have had 31 points on that basis and we actually have 29. If we were to win on Saturday we would have 32 against a target of 33.3. Not a million miles away.

I'll agree it's not a predictor, more of an indicator. Where did you get your 2.3 and 1.4 from?