Win percentage with 3 at the back

[Shaelumstash]

I was going to entitle the threat "Win percentage with Gundogan in the team" but I don't want to scapegoat him because he's clearly a class player coming back from a bad injury.

But looking at the bigger picture, we won the first 10 games playing 433 with a midfield of Fernandinho with Silva and De Bruyne in front and we looked unstoppable.

Since Gundogan got fit, Guardiola has seemed insistent on squeezing him in to the team and has often played 4 centre mids as a result. I really can't get my head around why? We were dominating midfield with a 3, there was absolutely no need to squeeze a 4th in there.

As a result, we've moved to a 3 at the back. Again, it doesn't seem to make any logical sense whatsoever. We went from looking solid at the back and not at all vulnerable to counter attacks, to now teams seemingly scoring off every single counter attack! All they have to do is knock a long ball over the top and there is so much space in our channels that we just cannot cope with it.

I've not got time to do it tonight, but if anyone has the time, I'd love to know what our win percentage is this season when we start with 4 at the back compared to when we start with 3 at the back. I bet it's pretty frightening.

EDIT: Managed to go through the results, and it is pretty frightening.

Our win percentage when starting with a back 4 is 74%.

Our win percentage when starting with a back 3 is 0%.

Our average goals conceded per game with a back 4 is 1. That includes the 4-0 loss to Barca when we had 10 men for most of the match. If we remove that result, our average goals conceded per game 11 vs 11 is 0.8.

Our average goals conceded per game with a back 3 is 1.8. Over double the figure of when we play a back four 11 vs 11.

We have started 19 games with a back 4 and lost 3 of them. One of them was the Barca game referred to above, where we played well but had 10 men. Another loss was the 1-0 at Old Trafford when we had a second string out, and Spurs, which we deservedly lost.

We have not won a game when playing with a back 3.

The results for anyone who is interested are below:

Back 4

Won 2-1 vs Sunderland
Won 5-0 vs Steaua Bucharest
Won 4-1 vs Stoke
Won 1-0 vs Steaua Bucharest
Won 3-1 vs West Ham
Won 2-1 vs The Shite
Won 4-0 vs Borussia Monchengladbach
Won 4-0 vs Bournmouth
Won 2-1 vs Swansea
Won 3-1 vs Swansea
Drew 3-3 vs Celtic
Lost 2-0 vs Spurs
Lost 4-0 vs Barca
Lost 1-0 vs The Shite
Won 4-0 vs West Brom
Won 3-1 vs Barca
Drew 1-1 vs Middlesborough
Won 2-1 vs Crystal Palace
Won 2-1 vs Burnley

19 Games with back 4
14 Wins 74%
2 Draws 10%
3 Losses 16%
Average Goals conceded: 1
Average goals conceded not including Barca away (10 men): 0.8


Back 3

Drew 1-1 vs Everton
Drew 1-1 vs Southampton
Drew 1-1 vs Borussia Monchengladbach
Lost 3-1 vs Chelsea
Drew 1-1 vs Celtic
Lost 4-2 vs Leicester

6 games with back 3
0 wins 0%
4 draws 67%
2 losses 33%
Average Goals conceded: 1.8

 

[aguero93:20]

3 at the back - fuck all
4 at the back - lots

 

[deano ou812]

Then if we were winning playing 433 why the fuck did he change it,was it to accommodate certain players,what's the saying if it's not broke ..

 

[Shaelumstash]

Then if we were winning playing 433 why the fuck did he change it,was it to accommodate certain players,what's the saying if it's not broke ..

Yeh for me it seems pretty obvious he changed it to accommodate Gundogan.

 

[manimanc]

doesn`t work. hasn`been working in the last few games. why can`t captain birds eye see what we all see?

 

[Thaksinssoldier]

Then if we were winning playing 433 why the fuck did he change it,was it to accommodate certain players,what's the saying if it's not broke ..

It was done to shoehorn Gundogan into a midfield that was already working with David, Fernandinho and kev.

Playing Gundogan is what's really hurting us.

 

[jon stakes]

It seems very similar with what Mourinho did at Chelsea - over and over the same bad lineup, bad selection and magically hoping that this next game it'll magically be better. Hope Pep isn't that stubborn though.

 

[PaulMoulden'sRecord]

3 at the back isn't the main issue....it's the members of the 3 (plus keeper). Pep needs to play to our strengths until replacements are purchased. Currently we're playing an idealistic plan......just ideally we have players who can actually defend.

 

[deano ou812]

Yeh for me it seems pretty obvious he changed it to accommodate Gundogan.

Surely rotation is the key play two of three then change,it's probably gone to far for pep to go back as I would say he's to set in his ways ..

It was done to shoehorn Gundogan into a midfield that was already working with David, Fernandinho and kev.

Playing Gundogan is what's really hurting us.

rotation surely isn't that the whole point of a big squad ..

 

[Shaelumstash]

3 at the back isn't the main issue....it's the members of the 3 (plus keeper). Pep needs to play to our strengths until replacements are purchased. Currently we're playing an idealistic plan......just ideally we have players who can actually defend.

We played well and defended well against Everton, Southampton, and Middlesborough with 3 at the back. But they all scored a goal on the counter attack against us off their only chance. That's the problem with 3 at the back, if you don't have 2 absolute mustard wing backs (which we don't) we leave ourselves so vulnerable to counterattacks and long balls.

The benefit of 4 at the back is that it's enough players to mark the space right across the width of the pitch. With 3 at the back, they could be the 3 best centre backs in the world, but they will still be vulnerable to direct balls from wide because 3 bodies just can't cover the width of the pitch without leaving loads of space through the middle.

There is just absolutely no need for us to play that way.

For me, while Fernandinho is out, we should go back to the 433 we started the season with, and see if Gundogan can play that role Fernandinho was playing. He's certainly got the tools, but Pep seems reluctant to try him there for some reason.