General Election June 8th

[bluethrunthru]

Labour to win less than 200 seats. Conservative to win 80+

Prof John Curtice on the radio just after the election was announced explained that the original projections gave her a 170-190 seat majority on a 20% + swing to Tory. However he went on to say if that slipped so did the majority and getting around mid teens resulted in only a slight increase in what she went into the election with and single figures should really worry her. From the numbers being quoted now I would say no overall majority is looking likely

 

[Magicpole]

The number 50 is around where i was thinking too.

Why? Can you explain the rationale behind choosing that figure?

 

[Magicpole]

Imagine her wee face when she wakes up Friday and it's all gone arse over tits. If she loses I would love to serve her breakfast.

Strong and Stable hard cheese.

Fired out a specially designed cheese bazooka.

 

[mcfc1632]

Why? Can you explain the rationale behind choosing that figure?

I would be happy to do so when back on later - I will derive it from the Labour Party's own canvassing so there can be no consideration of bias.

Meanwhile are you in a position to state your objective projection at this moment?

 

[mat]

Why? Can you explain the rationale behind choosing that figure?

Just a feeling.

In 92 *** *** put out a fear mongering front page on the eve of the election. They've done it again today. The Gumby voters will just scan that and vote accordingly.

 

[mat]

Imagine her wee face when she wakes up Friday and it's all gone arse over tits. If she loses I would love to serve her breakfast.

Strong and Stable hard cheese.

Fired out a specially designed cheese bazooka.

I would like to see that outcome.

 

[bumbleblue]

I have a feeling Labour will win.

 

[bluethrunthru]

I have a feeling Labour will win.

oh please don't - the comedy value of that. As a Labour supporter I just can't see it but I do feel it will be so bad fr her she is already toast.

 

[mat]

oh please don't - the comedy value of that. As a Labour supporter I just can't see it but I do feel it will be so bad fr her she is already toast.

It would be the Sergio moment of elections if Labour did.

I suspect Tories are already engineering May will step down on "ill health" not long after. And we end up with the same position of an unelected PM signing off Brexit.

 

[mat]

 

[bluethrunthru]

It would be the Sergio moment of elections if Labour did.

I suspect Tories are already engineering May will step down on "ill health" not long after. And we end up with the same position of an unelected PM signing off Brexit.

To be fair to her I think if it does come to it she will have the front to make her own statement saying that she didn't get the mandate she was looking for to offer strong and stable leadership for the Brexit negs. It whether the Tory Party can get her to hang on until they can sort out what they are going to do or whether she does a Dave and pops out on Friday morning to say she is off. If the latter with only 11 days to go before they start Merkel and Co will have a collective field day. In fact if the former then a short notice newbie will struggle for credibility and would probably prefer to do the - we are off we are paying nowt and throwing us at the mercy of WTO rules rather than being publicly humiliated in under 2 years of negotiations

 

[Magicpole]

I would be happy to do so when back on later - I will derive it from the Labour Party's own canvassing so there can be no consideration of bias.

Meanwhile are you in a position to state your objective projection at this moment?

No. I think the Tories will win tragically but by a small margin. I suppose it's all down to England and if it has seen Cirbyn as he is rather than how the media paint him.

 

[bluethrunthru]

No. I think the Tories will win tragically but by a small margin. I suppose it's all down to England and if it has seen Cirbyn as he is rather than how the media paint him.

FT poll of polls puts them 6% apart on share - EXACTLY THE SAME AS IN THE 2015 RESULT. If May has done all this to get exactly nowhere she will be out.

 

[mcfc1632]

Just a feeling.

In 92 *** *** put out a fear mongering front page on the eve of the election. They've done it again today. The Gumby voters will just scan that and vote accordingly.

I think that the shit press will only impact a few voters because so many have already made up their minds.

I will try and do some more (better) summarising later but for me the most 'reliable' source 2 days out has to be the Labour Party themselves.

They have their own 'canvassers' - those that knock on the doors and report back their findings - and these findings are well at odds with the recent swing in the polls. What they say to explain this is that Labour have a massive dependency on the young getting out to vote - and also that it is because the young are more likely to respond to online polls that this has skewed recent polling.

Anyway, just a couple of snippets from the Labour party's own canvassers:

"A YouGov Plc model jolted markets a week ago by suggesting Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn would have a shot at forming a government."

"But Labour politicians campaigning up and down the country, and those crunching the numbers back in headquarters, paint a different picture. A party aide speaking on condition of anonymity said officials had informally generated a list of more than 30 districts they have no prospect of holding."

And there is a lot of comment on the way that Labour support is entrenching in its core constituencies - so in the main cities etc. A good example of this is the South, where Labour are significantly increasing its support in London - but that is akin to the SNP increasing their support in Scotland over 2015 - it cannot really secure more seats.

A Labour Party source observed yesterday:

"Draw an imaginary line across the country from the Severn in the west to the Wash in the east, then exclude London, where Labour is protected by the shield under which cosmopolitans shelter from the post-liberal turn that is transforming our national politics. Below this line there are 197 seats, of which Labour holds 12; of these, several are ultra-marginals. “It’s very close,”

Bloomberg would not appear to have any reason for bias - and it would seem that they have been doing their own research of Labour's own canvassing. They published an article titled:

"Labour privately preparing for election defeat"

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/...vately-be-preparing-for-a-u-k-election-defeat

 

[mcfc1632]

FT poll of polls puts them 6% apart on share - EXACTLY THE SAME AS IN THE 2015 RESULT. If May has done all this to get exactly nowhere she will be out.

It will be very interesting if, after Thursday, the commentary about the polls is all about how they are back to being considered authoritative and can be seen as dependable for their accuracy - or if there is another inquest.

I suspect that they are still learning how to make the necessary adjustments to the data they capture and I prefer to look to the canvassing of parties who have been on the doorstep for a long time rather than a snapshot online capture - but we will see.

Re the recent posts on here that are expecting May to step down after Thursday - I see that as wishful thinking.

I say that as someone that would lose no sleep - she has run a dreadful campaign, but in reality - just what majority would she need to secure to ensure that she can control the next 5 years without any fear of falling foul of a revolt in the Commons, the Lords - or from her own hard-core Right-Wingers?

Of course if she does not win or has only a small majority - she is toast, but I would suggest that if she secures a majority over 40 then she is set fair - and then I cannot see her stepping down at all until the next election. I certainly see her achieving that size majority - or at least I hope so or I am well out of pocket.

 

[urban genie]

Small tory majority probably, as already is, I do think the cons will lose seats but regain them in scotland, who will in the majority vote for the SNP a wasted vote in my opinion when it comes to parliament (but not holyrood).

Or a hung parliament.

One scenario (a far fected one I may add which is not serious) torys 2 seat behind labour DUP align with cons for small maj or 3, but Sinn Fein for the first time take their seats in parliament support jezza and align with labour too beat that, the scum amd mail go into melt down and all the right wingers froth at the mouth.

In all seriousness, this election is gonna depend on if the 85% of young people that have registered bother to go out, that could make a big difference along with whether the poor tory campaign and failiures with social care and security sway the undecided.
I do think the near 2 year campaign of cobyn being refered to as not a leader will stick with some and they will vote on that rather than party politics.

So I predict tory win, but only just and may forced out by christmas considered an embarrassment to the party.

Jezza will stay on as with at least 2 more coup attempts by next easter.

 

[cibaman]

FT poll of polls puts them 6% apart on share - EXACTLY THE SAME AS IN THE 2015 RESULT. If May has done all this to get exactly nowhere she will be out.

If they do finish 6% apart again May will probably increase her majority. Labour's campaign has been largely about shoring up its core vote. They'll end up with bigger majorities in their safe seats but do less well in the marginals. And the tories should pick up a few seats in Scotland.

 

[law74]

Genuinely, and I mean that I really do, please point some out to me as it will sway my opinion of him on this matter at least.

He met David Ervine of the PUP at least 5 times in the mid to late 80's. He is also on record of meeting with the late Rev Ian Paisley (remember this was about the time Paisley was forming the Ulster Resistance). I am not sure if he met with the late John McMichael or Andy Tyrie or not, but it was in this era that McMichael tried to get the UDA to operate more as a political party rather than a paramilitary force (comm9n sense Northern Ireland-an Agreed Process) so it would seem likely that Corbyn would at least have been willing to meet with and discuss options, and not unreasonable to think that they would have met.

 

[jay_mcfc]

The Tories will win mainly because of the UKIP'ers going to the Cons in their droves meaning Labour will lose a lot of marginals, even those they won previously.

My personal hope, since Labour can't win a majority, is that they form a coalition and Sinn Fein take their seats at Westminster which results in kicking the Tories out.

 

[Vic]

If they do finish 6% apart again May will probably increase her majority. Labour's campaign has been largely about shoring up its core vote. They'll end up with bigger majorities in their safe seats but do less well in the marginals. And the tories should pick up a few seats in Scotland.

Labour's been squeezing lib dem voters and green (and if you're green with no Green party candidate you're going to vote whoever will beat the Tories).

If May does get a majority then, unless the new Tory MPs have been vetted, it will still be a Parliamentary Tory party divided between anti-EU and pro-EU (and whatever May says or Leavers think they voted for the latter group are going to resist the cliff edge option). She knows Brexit is bad for Britain, but - comforted by mcfc1632's expert advice - will be threatening to walk away as a bottom line. That's OK until the corporate backers of the party (the engines of the economy!) pull the plug on such nonsense.

She won't have got the ringing endorsement she wanted and most people will have voted for parties advocating a second referendum. But frankly I've only met a couple of people for whom Brexit is an election issue - it's the NHS, real wage cuts, austerity and reversing tax cuts for the rich that plays well for Labour.