Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

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Chippy_boy said:
I don't need to "admit it", i've been saying it consistently.

What is "unbelievable" however, is the idea that you can do what Labour suggest: Spend more on EVERYTHING and it will all be OK, and hardly anyone will have to pay for it. That is what's truly UNBELIEVABLE.

I think May is rubbish on TV and in front of TV audiences. Does that mean she'll be rubbish at running the country and in the Brexit negotiations? No, it doesn't. By all accounts she's been a competent and effective home secretary.

Corbyn is OK on a soap bax (where he belongs) but would be absolutely unmitigated shite, when it comes to keeping the economy on track. Shite. If he wins, WHEN it all goes absolutely completely tits up, as it will, I"ll expect you to come on here and say, "well, I am sorry, I got it completely wrong". Nothing else will do.
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According to senior Tories the one big character flaw she has is her inability to negotiate.
She just makes statements then refuses to discuss them.

That is her own people saying she will be crap at Brexit deals.
 
Cheadle_hulmeBlue said:
if we could have the benefits of the single market, but have control over immigration that would be great. i think both sides would be happy with that. this election even though it should have been wasnt about brexit really, it was about poor leadership and austerity.
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Think we can agree on being part of the European Economic Area (EEA) it would ensure we take part in the EU internal market and give us the independence the out vote wanted. It may cost us some cash, as part of a leaving agreement to get it though.
 
Time to negotiate entry into EFTA so we can retain single market access and stay in the customs union. Obviously that wouldn't satisfy the hard Brexiters but it would meet the literal outcome of the referendum even if it didn't actually change much. To pacify the Brexiters, maybe we should only enter EFTA for a fixed period and then have a referendum to see if we should stay in it. The alternative is a messy exit from the EU and huge economic turbulence including numerous businesses going bust who do most of their trade with Europe.
 
west didsblue said:
Time to negotiate entry into EFTA so we can retain single market access and stay in the customs union. Obviously that wouldn't satisfy the hard Brexiters but it would meet the literal outcome of the referendum even if it didn't actually change much. To pacify the Brexiters, maybe we should only enter EFTA for a fixed period and then have a referendum to see if we should stay in it. The alternative is a messy exit from the EU and huge economic turbulence including numerous businesses going bust who do most of their trade with Europe.
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you can't 100% guarantee that would actually happen though. no one really knows what will happen if we leave completely. it could end up good or bad. if dont leave the single market and dont get control over immigration there will be a lot of pissed off voters. this election was not fought on brexit though, it was barely mentioned.
 
Well, for me it is clear that these negotiations will not now lead to us leaving the EU in any meaningful way.

Also, I cannot really see another alternative path that can lead to an exiting from the EU in any meaningful way. So we will be effectively Remaining

By meaningful I mean the controls that was spoken about with regard to our money, borders and laws. We most certainly will not achieve an outcome that sees an end to FOM, ending of ECJ supremacy and a significant reduction in our contributions.

To make it worse I can only see an outcome in which we will undoubtedly be in a much-reduced position with regard Europe - associated membership, with no say in anything regarding rule making, but accepting FOM, paying large contributions and accepting supremacy of the ECJ.

Oh well - for those of a Leave persuasion - it was good to think that we were on track to achieve independence - but that is now gone.
 
Cheadle_hulmeBlue said:
you can't 100% guarantee that would actually happen though. no one really knows what will happen if we leave completely. it could end up good or bad. if dont leave the single market and dont get control over immigrate there will be a lot of pissed off voters.
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Even those that want a hard exit accept that in the short/ medium term, the economy would suffer.
 
jonmcity said:
Even those that want a hard exit accept that in the short/ medium term, the economy would suffer.
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long term though it could end up very different/improved. tbh the post above sums up how I'm feeling tbh. as a leaver we had everything we wanted pretty much, now its at risk. the whole brexit vote was a waste of time if we dont leave the single market imo.
 
Cheadle_hulmeBlue said:
you can't 100% guarantee that would actually happen though. no one really knows what will happen if we leave completely. it could end up good or bad. if dont leave the single market and dont get control over immigration there will be a lot of pissed off voters. this election was not fought on brexit though, it was barely mentioned.
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I was basing that comment on a mate who runs a small business who needs to react quickly when he gets an order from Europe. If there are delays and additional costs to his shipments which there undoutedly would be, his customers would go elsewhere. He's absolutely convinced he'll go out of business following a hard Brexit.
 
Cheadle_hulmeBlue said:
long term though it could end up very different/improved. tbh the post above sums up how I'm feeling tbh. as a leaver we had everything we wanted pretty much, now its at risk. the whole brexit vote was a waste of time if we dont leave the single market imo.
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In the long term changes to WTO agreements might mean free world trade in any case.
 
Cheadle_hulmeBlue said:
long term though it could end up very different/improved. tbh the post above sums up how I'm feeling tbh. as a leaver we had everything we wanted pretty much, now its at risk. the whole brexit vote was a waste of time if we dont leave the single market imo.
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That's the way I feel too. If we don't leave the single market and the customs union etc then I wouldn't feel I would have anything left to vote for.
 
Cheadle_hulmeBlue said:
long term though it could end up very different/improved. tbh the post above sums up how I'm feeling tbh. as a leaver we had everything we wanted pretty much, now its at risk. the whole brexit vote was a waste of time if we dont leave the single market imo.
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Cheer up, May's still there, driving things along strongly and stably!
 
mcfc1632 said:
Well, for me it is clear that these negotiations will not now lead to us leaving the EU in any meaningful way.

Also, I cannot really see another alternative path that can lead to an exiting from the EU in any meaningful way. So we will be effectively Remaining

By meaningful I mean the controls that was spoken about with regard to our money, borders and laws. We most certainly will not achieve an outcome that sees an end to FOM, ending of ECJ supremacy and a significant reduction in our contributions.

To make it worse I can only see an outcome in which we will undoubtedly be in a much-reduced position with regard Europe - associated membership, with no say in anything regarding rule making, but accepting FOM, paying large contributions and accepting supremacy of the ECJ.

Oh well - for those of a Leave persuasion - it was good to think that we were on track to achieve independence - but that is now gone.
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No sure that's right. May will have to listen to the wishes of her Tory Brexit supporting MP's. More so now than if she had her larger majority (or any majority lol)
 
What is the difference between a soft Brexit and a hard Brexit anyway?
Is it similar to the difference between a soft and hard boiled egg. Soft goes down easily whilst you gag on the hard?
Just curious.
 
smudgedj said:
No sure that's right. May will have to listen to the wishes of her Tory Brexit supporting MP's. More so now than if she had her larger majority (or any majority lol)
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That's to assume she was a Remainer in the first place, and I am not convinced she was. She never said much during the Brexit debate, preferring to keep her head down. My reading of this is that she was not a very enthusiastic remainer at all, but fully expecting a Remain victory, simply wanted to be on the "winning" side and not damage her future prime ministerial chances by publicly backing the wrong horse.

Certainly that would see to explain her almost Nazi like hard line on Brexit. I think it would be difficult for such an awkward and inept public speaker to pull off this act, if she genuinely didn't believe in it: She's not that good.

My conclusion is that she personally wanted a hard Brexit all along. She's had ample opportunity to take a more conciliatory position - like not taking the triggering Article 50 debate to the high courts for example. And at no time has she taken anything other than a hard line.
 
smudgedj said:
No sure that's right. May will have to listen to the wishes of her Tory Brexit supporting MP's. More so now than if she had her larger majority (or any majority lol)
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I am very certain of what I predict and therefore I am very certain that (a meaningful) Brexit will now not happen.

The EU were never going to offer a deal on any terms other than their most advantageous terms - unless they were faced with a situation of loss of access to our funding and other negative (for the EU) outcomes. They can now dictate terms without any fear of being unsuccessful - it is over.

There can only ever be a meaningful Brexit if we had a version of a walk-away option - that can only happen now if there was another GE or referendum explicitly focussed on a Brexit deal.

With the youth vote now galvanised that is not going to happen. The only way it cold be successful would be if the EU could be demonised in some way as screwing the UK over and the UK public take massive affront - that is not going to happen. The EU are not that stupid and their acolytes in Westminster will ensure that it is the UK Brexit position that is demonised as 'extreme'.

No - it is done - May had it her grasp and either her or her advisors got greedy with that stupid manifesto.

She has single-handedly fucked it up - simple as

I have said throughout the last year how I see things from a negotiations POV. I can now do that objectively in this position of failure - it is done. In the past I have called for Remainers to 'get over it'. The Brexiteers now have to do that.
 
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