Why we will win the league!

Gorton_Tubster said:
why we will win the league?




.......Each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

2019-03-10-pl-predictions.png



stats from here https://experimental361.com/2019/03/10/e-ratings-update-premier-league-10-mar-2019/
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Sadly I think the rags are nailed on for top 4 but in this table it looks like they have less chance than a dipper title.

Too many twists & turns in games for these sort of stats.
 
blue b4 the moon said:
Sadly I think the rags are nailed on for top 4 but in this table it looks like they have less chance than a dipper title.

Too many twists & turns in games for these sort of stats.
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It's done on ExG, the rags results under rentboy have been very fortunate so unless that luck keeps up they'll struggle.

One thing the above table doesn't take into account afaik is the FA Cup/CL fixture congestion and it's likely effect on performance.
 
blue b4 the moon said:
Sadly I think the rags are nailed on for top 4 but in this table it looks like they have less chance than a dipper title.

Too many twists & turns in games for these sort of stats.
Click to expand...
My main concern is that one dropped bollock from us will let them back in. I would love a bit of daylight between us and the scouse morons.
 
Gorton_Tubster said:
why we will win the league?




.......Each club’s current ratings and those of their remaining opponents to predict how the rest of the season could play out. Each of the remaining fixtures has been simulated thousands of times, using the current E Ratings to generate probabilities for where each club will finish.

This graphic shows the cumulative probability of where each club could end up, in descending order of average points won. You can think of the ordering of the teams down the left hand side as a “best guess” of the final league table, with the coloured bars showing the relative likelihood of each club ending up in a certain section of the table:

2019-03-10-pl-predictions.png



stats from here https://experimental361.com/2019/03/10/e-ratings-update-premier-league-10-mar-2019/
Click to expand...
I would give the Dippers a bit more of a chance. I would suggest that progress in Europe may well be the telling factor. The further you go into the CL the harder it will be to pick up 3 points the following weekend. Up to now both sides faced the same difficulties this may all change over the next couple of days. If we go out of Europe and they get to the Final again can't see us not winning the league.
 
Father Paul said:
I would give the Dippers a bit more of a chance. I would suggest that progress in Europe may well be the telling factor. The further you go into the CL the harder it will be to pick up 3 points the following weekend. Up to now both sides faced the same difficulties this may all change over the next couple of days. If we go out of Europe and they get to the Final again can't see us not winning the league.
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Our fixtures aren't so bad in and around the CL dates.

Palace (A) sandwiched between QF 1st and 2nd legs is on the Sunday so we have at least 4 days rest.

Spurs (H) after QF 2nd leg - depends on the scheduling but chances are we have same rest or more rest than them

Burnley (A) the Sunday before SF 1st leg is only problematic if UEFA schedule us for Tues SF slot.

Leicester (H) and Brighton (A) either side of the SF 2nd leg are good fixtures

Still it would be nice if the scousers get through and draw the rags in the QF
 
I'll be honest, I wanted Liverpool to go out of the Champions League but at least they'll have less recovery time between league games now. Hopefully that leads to them dropping a few more points.
 
David 'El Mago' Silva said:
I'll be honest, I wanted Liverpool to go out of the Champions League but at least they'll have less recovery time between league games now. Hopefully that leads to them dropping a few more points.
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Why are you worried about them? Had they gotten out, they’d have dropped points in the league because they’d be sitting on their arses all week and watching tv while big boys play mid week in CL big games ... and then having only the league to play for, that one game at the end of the week with all the pressure on that alone would have wrecked them mentally ...

Now that they have those mid week games ... they won’t know what to do with what ... how to balance it out with their limited one dimensional play and which excuses to give out in PL and which in CL post-match, can’t use the same for both ...

See they drop points either way ... simples ;)

I see them out of title race when we’ll hit the crunch games towards the last 3-4 league games to go ... and we’d be winning it BEFORE the final round of league games! Now relax :)
 
mag said:
Why are you worried about them? Had they gotten out, they’d have dropped points in the league because they’d be sitting on their arses all week and watching tv while big boys play mid week in CL big games ... and then having only the league to play for, that one game at the end of the week with all the pressure on that alone would have wrecked them mentally ...

Now that they have those mid week games ... they won’t know what to do with what ... how to balance it out with their limited one dimensional play and which excuses to give out in PL and which in CL post-match, can’t use the same for both ...

See they drop points either way ... simples ;)

I see them out of title race when we’ll hit the crunch games towards the last 3-4 league games to go ... and we’d be winning it BEFORE the final round of league games! Now relax :)
Click to expand...
I'm now convinced you're using some kind of jedi mind trick.
 
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For once I’m glad Liverpool won.

Knocked out a good team and now we only have the FA Cup difference and we should cope with our QF Against Swansea no bother.
 
The CL draw will play a huge role, not just for City and Liverpool, but also for Tottenham (who are also due at both Anfield and the Etihad for vital Premier League games), and United (who could be playing City 4 times in a month).

There’s also the International Break to consider, and whilst it might be traditional for English players to conveniently pull a hamstring, the Brazilians wouldn’t dream of missing a fixture.
 
mag said:
This should give you all (some more) confidence ... City top, Liverpool bottom ... when it comes to business end (last 8 games of the season, over last four PL seasons)!!

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that's certainly interesting but doesn't deny that Liverpool are a far more solid outfit this season, in the main.
 
shemnel said:
that's certainly interesting but doesn't deny that Liverpool are a far more solid outfit this season, in the main.
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Not only that, but it's lacking in a bit of context. In all 4 seasons they've been well out of the title race, in the earliest 2 they were out of the running for top 4. In the second and fourth seasons they had European games as a priority and in the third they were looking fairly safe for a top 4 spot and took their foot off the gas.

There's no denying though, we finish out the league season very well, especially under Guardiola.
 
Liverpool play Chelsea a few days before they play the second leg and then they have Cardiff away.

Very tough week for them.
 
mag said:
This should give you all (some more) confidence ... City top, Liverpool bottom ... when it comes to business end (last 8 games of the season, over last four PL seasons)!!

Click to expand...


We certainly have a great track record finishing - in both 2012 and 2014 we won our last 5-6 games to take the title. I dont think it's a coincidence - our players like warmer weather and the injuries seem to disappear also.
 
If we win the title this season , it is probably our biggest achievement in the Premier league , not because of the Dippers but because of the amount of competitions we are still involved in , never thought 2012 could be bettered , 1st title for donkeys years , but this season could exceed all expectations .
 
Having KDB , Ferny, Gab, Stones , VK , Laporte who will all be involved in the big games to come having spent recent times on the sidelines and likely to play little time if at all certainly KDB and Ferny in the upcoming international break I think is a huge plus for us for April and May.
 
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