Another new Brexit thread

[Vic]

I have often said that I do not want to see damage to the EU - although I am confident that difficult times are certain - I said (hopefully) they would be less attractive because that would mean that we have left

Thank you for that clarification.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

It probably would need the nec to push through a brexit policy for the manifesto. But unless there’s widespread buy in by the party they’ll struggle to sell it during the campaign.

I expect Johnson will announce the election in September to be held in October. Although there’s some speculation that he might announce an election to be held in November as a means of closing down parliament during October.

No bad thing that. It'd pull the rug out from under the lib Dem and brexit party vote, and force all the partys to campaign on actual policy rather than brexit.

 

[BobKowalski]

I think you need to recalibrate to the post May era. She was playing draughts and these guys are playing three dimensional chess. Of course they are going to say they’re going to force through no deal, in reality they know Parliament will stop them, in fact they’re banking on it. It’s obvious from the cabinet and Boris’s behaviour that the focus is on the next election.

If the plan is ‘obvious’ then how does it qualify as ‘three dimensional chess’? Secondly what if Parliament procedurally fails to stop us from crashing out? Are there plans in place if it happens? Are there plans for supporting legislation to be passed just in case it happens? Do the English impose direct rule on NI to manage a no deal scenario if it happens?

And if the plan is to be ‘thwarted’ from exiting by Parliament when it’s ‘obvious’ to everyone that it was a bluff; on what basis are you fighting an election given we have sailed past an exit day with nothing happening? This will be the second GE with the Tories promising to deliver Brexit. You reckon Farage and the Brexit Party are going to take them at their word and give them a free pass like last time?

I get that people are trying to devine a grand master plan at work but maybe it’s just people making shit up as they go along and hoping something turns up.

 

[hgblue]

If the plan is ‘obvious’ then how does it qualify as ‘three dimensional chess’? Secondly what if Parliament procedurally fails to stop us from crashing out? Are there plans in place if it happens? Are there plans for supporting legislation to be passed just in case it happens? Do the English impose direct rule on NI to manage a no deal scenario if it happens?

And if the plan is to be ‘thwarted’ from exiting by Parliament when it’s ‘obvious’ to everyone that it was a bluff; on what basis are you fighting an election given we have sailed past an exit day with nothing happening? This will be the second GE with the Tories promising to deliver Brexit. You reckon Farage and the Brexit Party are going to take them at their word and give them a free pass like last time?

I get that people are trying to devine a grand master plan at work but maybe it’s just people making shit up as they go along and hoping something turns up.

I’m cool with you thinking they’re just blundering along, I can see a strategy emerging and I’m confident I will be proven correct.

 

[Vic]

Oooh. Last night's Any Questions (repeat on now). First time I've heard an audience so vocal against the No Deal stuff (and even against the "must deliver Brexit because of the referendum"). And that's in East Devon (maybe LibDem territory).

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

If the plan is ‘obvious’ then how does it qualify as ‘three dimensional chess’? Secondly what if Parliament procedurally fails to stop us from crashing out? Are there plans in place if it happens? Are there plans for supporting legislation to be passed just in case it happens? Do the English impose direct rule on NI to manage a no deal scenario if it happens?

And if the plan is to be ‘thwarted’ from exiting by Parliament when it’s ‘obvious’ to everyone that it was a bluff; on what basis are you fighting an election given we have sailed past an exit day with nothing happening? This will be the second GE with the Tories promising to deliver Brexit. You reckon Farage and the Brexit Party are going to take them at their word and give them a free pass like last time?

I get that people are trying to devine a grand master plan at work but maybe it’s just people making shit up as they go along and hoping something turns up.

When you say iy's 'just people making shit up as they go along and hoping something turns up' are you referring to the brexiteers, remainers hoping to manipulate parliamentary procedure, or both?

 

[Vic]

Farmers Guardian not mincing words.

"Boris Johnson victory raises fears of no-deal Brexit"
"No-deal Brexit a 'Halloween horror story' for sheep industry"

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

I think you need to recalibrate to the post May era. She was playing draughts and these guys are playing three dimensional chess. Of course they are going to say they’re going to force through no deal, in reality they know Parliament will stop them, in fact they’re banking on it. It’s obvious from the cabinet and Boris’s behaviour that the focus is on the next election.

I think you are getting confused because you seem to be including 'Tories' in the same paragraph as ' planning' .........

 

[BobKowalski]

When you say iy's 'just people making shit up as they go along and hoping something turns up' are you referring to the brexiteers, remainers hoping to manipulate parliamentary procedure, or both?

I’m saying there is no master grand plan. Just a lot of people hoping there is a master grand plan because the alternative means we are fucked. The press will devine, interpret and declare all sorts of hidden and clever stratagems because the reality is too grim to contemplate. It’s the ‘Emperor has no clothes’ on steroids. The Spectator has an article about Johnson gunning hard for an election to convince others he can win in order to avoid an election. We might as well go back to slaughtering goats and examining the entrails for all the good this does us.

When the EU via Tusk and Barnier keep issuing pointed messages about looking forward to hearing the U.K. Govts plans in detail they know there is no detail, or even a plan, and are not so subtly making this clear. No matter what ‘three dimensional chess’ we are playing the EU sticks to playing the game of reality and pointing out the bleeding obvious.

Then we have Trump burbling about a UK/US deal ‘being three times better than the EU deal’. Really? We are going to be incorporated seamlessly into the US internal market? Yeah. I don’t think so.

It’s all bullshit, bollocks and bluster and after three years it’s become dull and tedious.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

I’m saying there is no master grand plan. Just a lot of people hoping there is a master grand plan because the alternative means we are fucked. The press will devine, interpret and declare all sorts of hidden and clever stratagems because the reality is too grim to contemplate. It’s the ‘Emperor has no clothes’ on steroids. The Spectator has an article about Johnson gunning hard for an election to convince others he can win in order to avoid an election. We might as well go back to slaughtering goats and examining the entrails for all the good this does us.

When the EU via Tusk and Barnier keep issuing pointed messages about looking forward to hearing the U.K. Govts plans in detail they know there is no detail, or even a plan, and are not so subtly making this clear. No matter what ‘three dimensional chess’ we are playing the EU sticks to playing the game of reality and pointing out the bleeding obvious.

Then we have Trump burbling about a UK/US deal ‘being three times better than the EU deal’. Really? We are going to be incorporated seamlessly into the US internal market? Yeah. I don’t think so.

It’s all bullshit, bollocks and bluster and after three years it’s become dull and tedious.

Fair enough, but you can equally level that at the remain contingent too. Their own toxic mixture of lies, fear mongering and parliamentary gamesmanship is just as bad. The current Boris position of seeking the best deal he can or committing to 'no deal' exit on the date set by the EU is essentially identical to Mrs Mays 'no deal is better than a bad deal and oft repeated commitment to leaving on 29 Mar come what may. The reason people are so much more upset with Boris, is that they are probably more convinced that he intends to follow through and not effectively act as a broker for the EU on behalf of the remain agenda. The fact that so many MP's and cabinet members who were apparently committed to brexit now feel they have to resign sort of bears this out.

 

[BobKowalski]

Fair enough, but you can equally level that at the remain contingent too. Their own toxic mixture of lies, fear mongering and parliamentary gamesmanship is just as bad. The current Boris position of seeking the best deal he can or committing to 'no deal' exit on the date set by the EU is essentially identical to Mrs Mays 'no deal is better than a bad deal and oft repeated commitment to leaving on 29 Mar come what may. The reason people are so much more upset with Boris, is that they are probably more convinced that he intends to follow through and not effectively act as a broker for the EU on behalf of the remain agenda. The fact that so many MP's and cabinet members who were apparently committed to brexit now feel they have to resign sort of bears this out.

The people upset with Johnson are no different to the people who were just as upset with May. People forget how she was lauded for her strong words and how she was going ‘to cut the EU down to size’ etc etc. Brexit MPs were talking about erecting a statue of her for God’s sake.

As with May before him, Johnson will first be bolstered by a wave of media and party political hype celebrating his promises to break the structural constraints facing the UK, before facing the backlash when it turns out that nothing has changed.

We’ve seen this play. This is just a rerun on fast forward.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

The people upset with Johnson are no different to the people who were just as upset with May. People forget how she was lauded for her strong words and how she was going ‘to cut the EU down to size’ etc etc. Brexit MPs were talking about erecting a statue of her for God’s sake.

As with May before him, Johnson will first be bolstered by a wave of media and party political hype celebrating his promises to break the structural constraints facing the UK, before facing the backlash when it turns out that nothing has changed.

We’ve seen this play. This is just a rerun on fast forward.

I agree, but the resignations within the tory party demonstrate that behind outward similarities the intent is very different. The remainers were more than happy to serve under May yet felt unable to do so under BJ. It may be because they in some way deeply principled, or that they thought remain / brino was a shoe in with May and under BJ we'll leave. Time will tell I suppose.

 

[BobKowalski]

I agree, but the resignations within the tory party demonstrate that behind outward similarities the intent is very different. The remainers were more than happy to serve under May yet felt unable to do so under BJ. It may be because they in some way deeply principled, or that they thought remain / brino was a shoe in with May and under BJ we'll leave. Time will tell I suppose.

Remainers resigned over the ‘no deal’ stance not Brexit. Brexiteers like Fox were sacked because three years of reality had tempered their ‘purlty’. This cabinet is full of intent but when we have FS Raab stating that not even eliminating the backstop may be good enough to avoid no deal we are simply making it easy for the EU and Dublin to sit tight and point to the U.K. as to why European relations with the U.K. have gone down the toilet and why the English have imposed direct rule on NI.

And this is just scratching the surface. Something, somewhere has to break and the only EU country facing the same structural difficulties as the U.K. is Ireland. And if Ireland paint this as a continuation of the 800 year struggle against the English then buckle up for a bumpy ride.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Remainers resigned over the ‘no deal’ stance not Brexit. Brexiteers like Fox were sacked because three years of reality had tempered their ‘purlty’. This cabinet is full of intent but when we have FS Raab stating that not even eliminating the backstop may be good enough to avoid no deal we are simply making it easy for the EU and Dublin to sit tight and point to the U.K. as to why European relations with the U.K. have gone down the toilet and why the English have imposed direct rule on NI.

And this is just scratching the surface. Something, somewhere has to break and the only EU country facing the same structural difficulties as the U.K. is Ireland. And if Ireland paint this as a continuation of the 800 year struggle against the English then buckle up for a bumpy ride.

The current 'no deal' stance is pretty much the same as May claimed hers was. I feel she was lying, although I will credit her with doing what she thought was right.

 

[BobKowalski]

The current 'no deal' stance is pretty much the same as May claimed hers was. I feel she was lying, although I will credit her with doing what she thought was right.

I don’t think she was lying but it was more of a negotiating tactic than a real threat and when it came to the crunch she abandoned it.

In one sense this is no longer about Brexit. It’s about the U.K. trying to bend the E27 to its interests and for them to abandon their own. Ultimately the leverage and power between UK and the EU is asymmetric but we refuse to accept this. In some ways we cannot accept it hence all the rhetoric about ‘Global Britain’ and ‘making this the best country on Earth’ or leading the world in trade yada, yada.

 

[mcfc1632]

Also the backstop wasn’t a ‘hard fought’ EU trump card. The U.K. proposed and drafted the fucking thing.

Bollocks - well yes 'technically' correct

But that was only because the UK was represented by the utterly incompetent Robbins and other EU sycophants

 

[BrianW]

I would like to thank the Brexit brigade for one thing.
You have changed my attitudes completely.
Four years ago I was all for keeping the pound and not joining Schnegen. Now those things hold no fears for me. If it's the cost of rejoining the EU, bring them on.

 

[bluethrunthru]

The truth is revealed - prepare for disaster

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49141375

 

[bugsyblue]

The truth is revealed - prepare for disaster

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49141375

This is exactly what I feared with Johnson the populist in charge.

He’ll take us down a no deal scenario and defend himself by using the narrative “May’s deal was worse” thus he’ll take no responsibility for his actions.

He’ll break the country and then claim to be the one to fix when we inevitably recover after a couple of years. He’ll then get re-elected on the back of his populist movement coupled with the fact that Corbyn and Labour are a joke.

And we’ll all live in a worse society for it.

 

[Vic]

Farmers still keen on self-harm.

https://www.agriland.co.uk/farming-...CIFZH-kl316PLS8Zvlgnam4e29yruaLNYS2TbQkLyEFF0