Another new Brexit thread

[blueish swede]

Cough cough

That the UK government is now stating a better deal and the EU are refusing to even discuss it somewhat exposes your theory of what could/should happen seems to be divorced from the reality of what has/is happening

A better deal in whose opinion, and a better deal for who?

What is this better deal. All I've seen is bluster.

The truth is that the threat of no deal only has any power if, and only if, the deal Johnson is offering to the EU lies between the WA and no deal (where no- deal is considered the worse outcome).

 

[mcfc1632]

Which better deal is this that doesn't breach any red lines and does it have a majority in parliament?

Silly answer

The previous May WA most certainly does not have a majority in parliament so it is an irrelevance that should never further be discussed

Johnson has made some clear statements of what is required to see a new deal being taken before parliament and the EU are refusing to even discuss

This means that what I posted in reply to another poster was entirely correct and suggests that you are continuing to your habit of just jumping in without first reading content and thinking

 

[blueish swede]

Silly answer

The previous May WA most certainly does not have a majority in parliament so it is an irrelevance that should never further be discussed

Johnson has made some clear statements of what is required to see a new deal being taken before parliament and the EU are refusing to even discuss

This means that what I posted in reply to another poster was entirely correct and suggests that you are continuing to your habit of just jumping in without first reading content and thinking

The EU are not refusing to negotiate at all. Bannier has publicly stated the EUs existing position on the negotiation i response to the UKs public comments.
The EU have agreed to meet twice a week with the UK to continue negotiations. That is not a refusl to negotiate.

 

[mcfc1632]

What we should have done is take no deal off the table at the beginning of negotiations. In a negotiation you need currency and I would have traded ‘no deal threats’ for ‘trust’.

Fuck - I was going to suggest that you are Olly Robbins - but I am not sure even he was that 'innocent'

 

[BobKowalski]

A) They will try this anyhow for the consumption of our own electorate even if they turn up for every meeting with a cigar and a personal wrap a round

B) if we have left why do they care?

Some of you believe the Eu have gone as far as they are prepared to, this is nothing more than a guess based on your pre disposed bias. This is what remainers have done for 3 years. The whole premise has been fold for fucks sake they have 2 aces we have 7 3 off suit. And bizarrely you like telling them we have 7 3 off suit.

I wouldnt mind but we have 10 jack suited.

a) Yes they will try. And the EU will do nothing that allows the blame game stick.

b) The EU is comprised of nation states. Each nation state has its own domestic politics. No head of these states wants any domestic flak for the consequences of no deal. This is very true in Dublin where the Irish Govt has built a solid consensus behind it and is vulnerable to no deal disruption. So the EU will turn up to as many meetings as you like and keep stressing they have a fair and reasonable deal already negotiated with the U.K. Govt on the table and if it all goes tits then it’s the reckless actions of a U.K. Govt that has suspended Parliament and has Ministers like Gove on the TV refusing to confirm that the Govt will follow the rule of law.

Every action taken by Johnson and this Govt is not only hardening resistance in the U.K. but also hardening the EU stance and making it easy for the EU to not compromise on the agreement already reached. Domestic audiences in EU countries ae being treated daily to media stories about the U.K. becoming a rogue nation with its Parliament suspended, MPs plotting rebellion and protests on the streets. Every EU head of state will be saying ‘look we have done everything to ensure an orderly exit but the actions of a U.K. at war with itself made this impossible.

Avoiding the blame game is not primarily for our benefit. It’s for their own domestic consumption.

 

[hilts]

The EU are not refusing to negotiate at all. Bannier has publicly stated the EUs existing position on the negotiation i response to the UKs public comments.
The EU have agreed to meet twice a week with the UK to continue negotiations. That is not a refusl to negotiate.

There is a bit of semantics going on here fella, saying you are willing to talk about how the deal being offered is the best you are getting is not negotiating.

Please pop round whenever you fancy to discuss how you will pay 2 grand for my Peugeot 306. Okay can you throw in a air freshener at least. No I would have to give everyone an air freshener plus your inept brother never mentioned an air freshener last week. But he’s dead. Not my problem.

 

[cibaman]

A) They will try this anyhow for the consumption of our own electorate even if they turn up for every meeting with a cigar and a personal wrap a round

B) if we have left why do they care?

Some of you believe the Eu have gone as far as they are prepared to, this is nothing more than a guess based on your pre disposed bias. This is what remainers have done for 3 years. The whole premise has been fold for fucks sake they have 2 aces we have 7 3 off suit. And bizarrely you like telling them we have 7 3 off suit.

I wouldnt mind but we have 10 jack suited.

I don’t think the eu have gone as far as they can. I just don’t think they can go anywhere near as far as they would need to in order to satisfy the Tory party. And for a significant number of Tory MPs, no deal is their desired outcome. There are no feasible concessions that the eu could make that would beat no deal

 

[mcfc1632]

A better deal in whose opinion, and a better deal for who?

What is this better deal. All I've seen is bluster.

The truth is that the threat of no deal only has any power if, and only if, the deal Johnson is offering to the EU lies between the WA and no deal (where no- deal is considered the worse outcome).​

So the current WA - rejected 3 times by the UK is at one axis and No-Deal is at the other

Surely a WA without the Irish backstop is in between - yet your lead negotiator has refused any negotiation on this - somewhat proves my point and disproves yours I suggest

 

[blueish swede]

So the current WA - rejected 3 times by the UK is at one axis and No-Deal is at the other

Surely a WA without the Irish backstop is in between - yet your lead negotiator has refused any negotiation on this - somewhat proves my point and disproves yours I suggest

Yes, it is in between. It is a worse deal for the EU than the WA, which is why Johnson needs the threat of no deal.
If he offered a better deal than the WA then he wouldn't need to threaten no deal. It is an open admission by Johnson that he wants the EU to accept a worse deal than they have already negoiated. Why should they not resist that? Johnson has turned the negotiation into a hostage situation. Unfortunately like in Blazing Saddles he's holding the gun to his own head.

 

[hilts]

a) Yes they will try. And the EU will do nothing that allows the blame game stick.

b) The EU is comprised of nation states. Each nation state has its own domestic politics. No head of these states wants any domestic flak for the consequences of no deal. This is very true in Dublin where the Irish Govt has built a solid consensus behind it and is vulnerable to no deal disruption. So the EU will turn up to as many meetings as you like and keep stressing they have a fair and reasonable deal already negotiated with the U.K. Govt on the table and if it all goes tits then it’s the reckless actions of a U.K. Govt that has suspended Parliament and has Ministers like Gove on the TV refusing to confirm that the Govt will follow the rule of law.

Every action taken by Johnson and this Govt is not only hardening resistance in the U.K. but also hardening the EU stance and making it easy for the EU to not compromise on the agreement already reached. Domestic audiences in EU countries ae being treated daily to media stories about the U.K. becoming a rogue nation with its Parliament suspended, MPs plotting rebellion and protests on the streets. Every EU head of state will be saying ‘look we have done everything to ensure an orderly exit but the actions of a U.K. at war with itself made this impossible.

Avoiding the blame game is not primarily for our benefit. It’s for their own domestic consumption.

You have it really bad fella this euitis. I will tell you precisely how it will go. Leavers will blame the Eu and our own remainers, the Eu will blame the British Govt. Remainers will blame U.K. politicians and leave voters.

This is the only thing that I’m sure will happen in all this nonsense.

The blame game cannot be stopped.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

Ed Woodward you’re just being silly now, he would have agreed to a 100 billion payment just to stay in

And if the Rags' employment and termination strategy is used in these negotiations, £200 billion to fuck off out.

 

[aguero93:20]

Silly answer

The previous May WA most certainly does not have a majority in parliament so it is an irrelevance that should never further be discussed

Johnson has made some clear statements of what is required to see a new deal being taken before parliament and the EU are refusing to even discuss

This means that what I posted in reply to another poster was entirely correct and suggests that you are continuing to your habit of just jumping in without first reading content and thinking

Seriously, what deal, is it inside the red lines and does he have the votes in parliament? Without that info Johnson may as well be telling us he has a flying pig.

 

[hilts]

Yes, it is in between. It is a worse deal for the EU than the WA, which is why Johnson needs the threat of no deal.
If he offered a better deal than the WA then he wouldn't need to threaten no deal. It is an open admission by Johnson that he wants the EU to accept a worse deal than they have already negoiated. Why should they not resist that? Johnson has turned the negotiation into a hostage situation. Unfortunately like in Blazing Saddles he's holding the gun to his own head.

The Eu haven’t negotiated a deal with the U.K. though, this is quite a big point some are missing

 

[hilts]

Seriously, what deal, is it inside the red lines and does he have the votes in parliament? Without that info Johnson may as well be telling us he has a flying pig.

 

[BobKowalski]

Fuck - I was going to suggest that you are Olly Robbins - but I am not sure even he was that 'innocent'

That’s because you wrongly assume any deal must be a win/lose scenario. Negotiations like this have to be a win/win ie in a trade deal there must be enough positives for both sides to accept it. In the Brexit negotiations Barnier refers to them as a lose/lose scenario in which, given the goal is the withdrawal of the U.K. from the trading bloc, both sides inevitably lose. The EU consider that the WA is acceptable loss for the EU and Robbins considered it acceptable loss for the U.K.

Demands by the U.K. to ditch the backstop or not pay a penny or whatever is back to us demanding that we ‘win’ and no deal is the threat to allow us to ‘win’. This the EU will simply not do. It cannot do this as Brexit is an external negotiation with a third country and the EU does not bend its rules or laws in negotiations with third countries. The EU will bend rules and laws in internal negotiations between member states but even that has limits. Just ask the Greeks.

The EU is governed by Treaty law. It runs on internal rules and regulations. It cannot compromise Treaty law and it will not compromise internal rules and regulations for non EU countries. If it did there would be no EU.

Finally the EU doesn’t like the backstop. It is there because a member state, Ireland, wanted an insurance policy so the EU will back a member state to the hilt against a non member state. To change or replace the Backstop with something else Ireland is the key. And to change Ireland’s stance Ireland needs to ‘trust’ the U.K. to do the right thing. One of the many reasons I would have traded the ‘threats’ of no deal for the currency of ‘trust’ from the outset.

 

[hilts]

I don’t think the eu have gone as far as they can. I just don’t think they can go anywhere near as far as they would need to in order to satisfy the Tory party. And for a significant number of Tory MPs, no deal is their desired outcome. There are no feasible concessions that the eu could make that would beat no deal

They don’t have to satisfy the whole of the Tory Party but would be reliant on decent MPs from other parties. If the EU and Johnson can come up with something,and it doesn’t need to be earth shattering, they can put it to the house and with the time constraints it will be

This new deal or out. In those circumstances we will see how much Labour, Libs SNP etc.... really don’t want a no deal or are playing games.

The house is full of remainers it is doable

 

[blueish swede]

The Eu haven’t negotiated a deal with the U.K. though, this is quite a big point some are missing

No they haven't. They have negotiated to the point of ratification. During the ratification process in the UK the deal has collapsed - primarily (not entirely) due to a clause in the deal proposed by the UK (the backstop).

Would you feel the EU would be justifed to limit future negotiations to deals that have already been passed by the UK parliament? Or should they continue wasting time and money indefinitely?

 

[BobKowalski]

You have it really bad fella this euitis. I will tell you precisely how it will go. Leavers will blame the Eu and our own remainers, the Eu will blame the British Govt. Remainers will blame U.K. politicians and leave voters.

This is the only thing that I’m sure will happen in all this nonsense.

The blame game cannot be stopped.

No it cannot be stopped but you asked why did the EU care and I explained why. It’s to ensure a narrative inside the EU that they did everything they could. And don’t forget no deal is our choice. The U.K. decides whether to no deal exit or not. No amount of ‘blame game’ playing changes this fact.

To exit on the 31st October whether we are ready or not will be entirely the choice of the U.K. The EU is simply making sure everyone knows it.

 

[mcfc1632]

Yes, it is in between. It is a worse deal for the EU than the WA, which is why Johnson needs the threat of no deal.
If he offered a better deal than the WA then he wouldn't need to threaten no deal. It is an open admission by Johnson that he wants the EU to accept a worse deal than they have already negoiated. Why should they not resist that? Johnson has turned the negotiation into a hostage situation. Unfortunately like in Blazing Saddles he's holding the gun to his own head.

Genuinely - and no insult meant - you seem to be confusing things/yourself

1. May's deal has no standing - it has been rejected 3 times and will never get passed. That it is an entirely shocking deal and does massive harm to the UK for decades to come

You speak as if that is something in the bag for EU already - it is not and never will be

2. No deal is bad all round and will tip a number EU countries - that Barnier is supposed to be representing - into recession.

Therefore

3. A WA - still massively in the EU's favour - without the unfettered backstop seems attractive to everyone

The rest is just positioning and negotiations - of and from the UK side shit politicking

 

[hilts]

No they haven't. They have negotiated to the point of ratification. During the ratification process in the UK the deal has collapsed - primarily (not entirely) due to a clause in the deal proposed by the UK (the backstop).

Would you feel the EU would be justifed to limit future negotiations to deals that have already been passed by the UK parliament? Or should they continue wasting time and money indefinitely?

If we keep extending plenty of time and money will wasted, if there is no deal plenty of time and money will be wasted. 3 years this has been going on for most of it wasted.

I still think something will be done last minute. If it doesn’t happen we have a very straightforward choice and we will all have to live with it.