Another new Brexit thread

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Playing devil's advocate here for a moment mate...

It's true that on November 1st with no deal, the EU will be obliged to apply tariffs on imports from the UK. But whilst there's a few exceptions, most tariffs are circa 10% or less.

However, the pound is already more than 20% down compared to the pre-referendum rates and would doubtless drop further if it became clear we're leaving with no deal. So the upshot is that even with tariffs applied, most UK goods would still be much cheaper than they were a few years ago. Exceptions like dairy could be given special subsidies, which we'd be free to do outside the EU.

And regards import tariffs on goods coming in, we don't have to apply them, at least not immediately. In the long term, unilaterally dropping your tariffs to zero, would make negotiating new trade deals more difficult, but even then not impossible. Instead of bartering with an offer to drop tariffs, we'd sit at the table with the threat to levy them if no deal is done.

For me the biggest fear is that inward investment into the UK from foreign businesses would be severely curtailed, and the ones already here would imo decamp in large numbers. It's not the tariffs per se, it's the supply chain "friction" and added administration costs and delays. I'm sure that would cost many, many jobs.
That's a good post that pal.

The elephant in the room is that there is every indicator in the American bond yield curve that a downturn is imminent. A recession could have serious implications for inward investment and the Sino-American trade war does not help, although paradoxically it may mean China looks to invest in the UK. The irony of ironies is that our economy could be saved by a Communist government at a time we are looking longingly for a trade deal with the USA. How Trump would react to that well who the fuck knows?
 
Playing devil's advocate here for a moment mate...

It's true that on November 1st with no deal, the EU will be obliged to apply tariffs on imports from the UK. But whilst there's a few exceptions, most tariffs are circa 10% or less.

However, the pound is already more than 20% down compared to the pre-referendum rates and would doubtless drop further if it became clear we're leaving with no deal. So the upshot is that even with tariffs applied, most UK goods would still be much cheaper than they were a few years ago. Exceptions like dairy could be given special subsidies, which we'd be free to do outside the EU.

And regards import tariffs on goods coming in, we don't have to apply them, at least not immediately. In the long term, unilaterally dropping your tariffs to zero, would make negotiating new trade deals more difficult, but even then not impossible. Instead of bartering with an offer to drop tariffs, we'd sit at the table with the threat to levy them if no deal is done.

For me the biggest fear is that inward investment into the UK from foreign businesses would be severely curtailed, and the ones already here would imo decamp in large numbers. It's not the tariffs per se, it's the supply chain "friction" and added administration costs and delays. I'm sure that would cost many, many jobs.

Thanks

Whilst UK goods may be cheaper to buy due to the currency devaluation, they will potentially be more expensive and time consuming to make. If components for the widgets are bought in $/€, if those same components are held up and if the people that may be required to make them require visas(additional time and cost)

Either way, it certainly isn’t ‘scaremongering’ as the poster originally suggested. There will more than likely be job losses due to the disruption, additional costs, uncertainty and a general lack of confidence in a nation that doesn’t play with a straight bat

And I’ve absolutely no idea how to get out of it, other than signing the existing WA. I don’t think a General Election will solve anything
 
Playing devil's advocate here for a moment mate...

It's true that on November 1st with no deal, the EU will be obliged to apply tariffs on imports from the UK. But whilst there's a few exceptions, most tariffs are circa 10% or less.

However, the pound is already more than 20% down compared to the pre-referendum rates and would doubtless drop further if it became clear we're leaving with no deal. So the upshot is that even with tariffs applied, most UK exported goods would still be much cheaper than they were a few years ago. Exceptions like dairy could be given special subsidies, which we'd be free to do outside the EU.

And regards import tariffs on goods coming in, we don't have to apply them, at least not immediately. In the long term, unilaterally dropping your tariffs to zero, would make negotiating new trade deals more difficult, but even then not impossible. Instead of bartering with an offer to drop tariffs, we'd sit at the table with the threat to levy them if no deal is done.

For me the biggest fear is that inward investment into the UK from foreign businesses would be severely curtailed, and the ones already here would imo decamp in large numbers. It's not the tariffs per se, it's the supply chain "friction" and added administration costs and delays. I'm sure that would cost many, many jobs.
Fuck me - a balanced post.
 
But the evidence is there to suggest we’ll be worse off with a deal and absolutely fucked without one.

This isn’t just remain, this is what the government actually think and even Gove said no deal should be avoided several months ago.

The economy has gone from being one of the fastest in Europe to one of the slowest. Things aren’t going well or as well as they were prior to 2016.

The pound is at record lows as well.

I’m all for leaving with a deal, if we can then negotiate a free trade deal then great. What many of us won’t stand for is something that was never mentioned in 2016 and that’s no deal.

The pound isn't at record lows mate. And how much of our economy slowing do you think is down to uncertainty and investment decisions being put on hold? Some of it surely is.

I am not saying everything will be roses - far from it - but getting it done will at least enable us to move on and there's some upside in that. We've been in limbo for 3 years.
 
Let's have it right here - there was bollocks spouted on both sides and the respective campaigns were fucking shite. As for Osborne, well he also said there would be an emergency budget if there was a vote to leave and income tax would go up by 2p. He came out with that line about a week before the referendum which has since proven to be a blatant scaremongering tactic because the last time I looked, I'm still paying the same rate of income tax as I was immediately prior to June 23rd 2016.

You're right about the pound but anyone with half a brain cell could've predicted that one. Even that bellend Farage admitted that would happen if there was a vote to leave. The stock market has held up well though so far, and my pension fund rocketed by over 10% in the weeks following the vote. The FTSE 100 tanked on the morning of June 24th 2016 but that was it, and it started it's recovery later that same day.

I don’t buy into this “both sides lied so whatever” line. Remain’s campaign exaggerated what would happen post vote to leave, they were still correct in that the economy would be worse and the pound would slump, they just said it would be worse than the shit that’s already happened.

The leave side were claiming Turkey were joining the EU and millions of Turk’s would effectively get British passports, we’d be better off on all levels, we’d have a free trade agreement from x place to the arctic or whatever it was, we’d hold all the cards, it’ll be the easiest deal in history, Farage told us we could be like Norway, the £350m into the NHS (we’ve already lost more than this per week since the vote), we’d grow as a finance power, etc. Etc. I can go on if you wish.

That’s not even mentioning the breaking of electoral law and the fact that if it had been a legally binding election it would have been cancelled as a result.
 
The pound isn't at record lows mate. And how much of our economy slowing do you think is down to uncertainty and investment decisions being put on hold? Some of it surely is.

I am not saying everything will be roses - far from it - but getting it done will at least enable us to move on and there's some upside in that. We've been in limbo for 3 years.

Sorry the pound is on its way towards record lows, it’s not there yet but isn’t far off.

Well quite a bit but the reason the investment decisions are being put on hold due to uncertainty is because investors are fearful of the terms in which we may leave.

If we leave with a deal we should come out of it okay and hopefully job losses and investment being pulled should be at a minimum.
 
Of course he is, he won’t want to be blamed for the impacts of no deal as it’ll be pretty grim.

I’m not saying we should leave with May’s deal, I think we should have another referendum before we go with no deal though.

Yeah, I think it's brinkmanship on his part. It's risky because the clock is ticking towards October 31st and he's insisted we're leaving then with or without a deal, so yet another extension seems to be out of the window.

What would be the options on the ballot paper for you if there were another referendum? Would it be a straightforward in or out as before, or various other options such as out with no deal and out with a deal?

To be honest, I can't see a way out of this at the moment. The country is completely split over this issue but I do think many people on both sides are sick of hearing about it and just want a situation where we can all move on. Another referendum would cause serious ructions. And it's not as black and white as Leavers v Remainers either. My boss at work is a pretty staunch Remainer and still wishes the vote had gone a different way but is now at the stage where he wants us out as soon as possible so we all know where we stand, even if it were without a deal. I voted to leave but I'm probably less receptive to no deal than he is. Not that he wants no deal as such, but just wants an end to it all.
 
It's a disgrace, you should complain to Herr Selmayer, or his boss Frau von der Leyen, or her boss Frau Merkel.
Been a weird exchange to observe as I have been catching up

I saw the Boulton programme yesterday and the interview that you referred to

So yes I recall the 2 fellas that had been granted access and have written the book etc. and I remember the bit that you have referred to.... I was not focussing intently but think it was a couple of Verhofstad's staffers?

What is it that makes Remainers so needy and demanding? Why on earth is it on you to spoon-feed and spend your time when a20 clearly has not bothered to make any effort to see the clip - it is not difficult
 
I'm not denying any of that, just saying that some of these legit and actually pretty compelling reasons to remain have been watered down by all the hysterical exaggerations.

I think the hysterical exaggerations you’re referring too are minuscule compared to the exaggerations and mistruths the leave argument have said about the EU.
 
Yeah, I think it's brinkmanship on his part. It's risky because the clock is ticking towards October 31st and he's insisted we're leaving then with or without a deal, so yet another extension seems to be out of the window.

What would be the options on the ballot paper for you if there were another referendum? Would it be a straightforward in or out as before, or various other options such as out with no deal and out with a deal?

To be honest, I can't see a way out of this at the moment. The country is completely split over this issue but I do think many people on both sides are sick of hearing about it and just want a situation where we can all move on. Another referendum would cause serious ructions. And it's not as black and white as Leavers v Remainers either. My boss at work is a pretty staunch Remainer and still wishes the vote had gone a different way but is now at the stage where he wants us out as soon as possible so we all know where we stand, even if it were without a deal. I voted to leave but I'm probably less receptive to no deal than he is. Not that he wants no deal as such, but just wants an end to it all.

I don’t disagree with any of that, the best situation would have been for May to get a better deal, for us to leave with it and then move on.

I think both sides would have accepted a deal with the EU and a free trade agreement.

Obviously this has passed now so my thoughts are that I’ll go along with whatever happens as long as it isn’t no deal.

I just think the damage will be too great.
 
you do realise that every time Johnson lies the pound plunges whether we are in or out makes no difference - keeps dropping 1% a day - if you want to see a proper fall wait for the day we leave on Johnsons no deal - its not me equating Brexit with bad results its the currency markets as reported on the BBC as I just posted.............but thats just me being negative is it? Ha fucking ha.

Really...…?

And this in a post where you are commenting on someone lying
 
Been a weird exchange to observe as I have been catching up

I saw the Boulton programme yesterday and the interview that you referred to

So yes I recall the 2 fellas that had been granted access and have written the book etc. and I remember the bit that you have referred to.... I was not focussing intently but think it was a couple of Verhofstad's staffers?

What is it that makes Remainers so needy and demanding? Why on earth is it on you to spoon-feed and spend your time when a20 clearly has not bothered to make any effort to see the clip - it is not difficult
It's just his way of losing an argument and I humour him because it happens so often I don't want him to feel bad ;)
 
Oh ffs. Grow up - we have a fairly unpleasant tory govt but nothing more. To equate any of what's going on now to either the beginning or end of nazi Germany is not only trivialising and disrespectful to those that suffered back then, but also dangerous. If we do actually get a dodgy facist govt because of this sort of hysteria they may manage to slip by unnoticed. I'm sure you only have good intentions, but I'm increasingly wary of this sort of thing since corbyn became touted as the next Josef Mengele and morissey as the new Tommy Robinson.
As I was driving yesterday I was unfortunate enough to pick up some of the LBC chap the Remainers regard as the oracle - at least I think that it was his slot

I remember hearing it said - perhaps by his guest - "......when people start making references to the 1930s then they have already lost the argument....."
 
How does “ getting back control of our borders” equate with Johnson’s insistence that we will not have a hard border between the Republic and Northern Ireland ?
Utterly consistent that and a great example of exercising control - surprised that you cannot work that out
 
I can’t see our government caving in, because if they do they will not be forgiven.
And we know that our economy will suffer.
But despite what some think of the EU motives, and despite our recent memories of the Troika, we would trust the EU far quicker than your current Tory government to do right by us.

That’s just the way it is.

Full respect and an understandable stance. I salute the determination that, even if your economy will suffer, you demonstrate resolution to decide matters for yourself and not be pushed into positions

Just one question...….

Why is such a stance always a noble thing when it comes from the Irish and Scottish - but is something to be despised and ridiculed when coming from the English?
 
And why do you think this is? Having survived the promised emergency budget and economic collapse of 24 Jun 16 the boy crying Wolf is now ignored. Remain are taking a canary down the coal mine that they themselves declared dead 3 years ago. Much is said about the lies and exaggerations of vote leave, but it is those of the remain campaign that have lead us to this point in equal measure.
Well said
 
Kristen chairing

Debaters

Ian blackford
Clive lewis
Jon redwood
Alexandra phillips

With a 50/50 split audience.
Just watching this on Ch4 catch up - the Remainers are just getting slaughtered by Redwood and Phillips - zero intellectual integrity or indeed coherence from Blackwood & Lewis or the plants in the audience yelling about water supplies, tax havens, imperialism .. The host is as usual a blatant propagandist for extreme left.
 
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