Another new Brexit thread

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Rascal said:
Before Cameron promised referendum, it wasn't a big issue with the general public, it was an issue in his party. He promised it in an attempt to unify his party so he could cling to power, I think I am right in saying the EU was about 12th in the priorities of voters at that time. Cameron was under pressure from his parties nutjobs and they were the same nutjobs that Major had called his bastards, committed anti-EU fanatics for years, but mostly dismissed as cranks. I am not doubting it became an issue but if Cameron had not tried to soothe his nutjobs it would never have been an issue. From that promise of his sprung the events we have witnessed. Cameron then went even further and called UKIP which was a small fringe party a mix of fruitcakes and racists, which instead of shutting them down, gave them unwarranted public exposure and we began to see Farage on everything from Question Time to Tom and Jerry as the BBC tried to be "balanced" as everybody knows the views of fruitcakes and racists should treated with the equivalence as mainstream politicians, right!! Once Cameron had made that fateful decision there was no stopping it and it emboldened his nutjobs who saw their fantasies might be realised after years of them mostly being ridiculed as not rights, cranks, fools and fantasists.

The complacency of Cameron and the complicitness of Osborne in the whole charade showed astounding arrogance, they never thought they would lose, so they never planned for anything to be in place for that eventuality. Stunning incompetence on their behalf. They never understood that the damage they had inflicthatted through their needless austerity measures would have the effect of people wanting change and posters wanting to punish them for their stupidity.

From 12th in priority they had acted with such idiocy that Brexit became the number 1 issue but they still acted with total arrogance and never sold the EU to the people which allowed the leave campaign to act almost unopposed. That coupled with the lack of political acumen in the setting of the referendums parameters has led to the huge divisions we are now seeing today.

I am a person who is ideologically opposed to referendums, they are contrary to our system of representative democracy and it was always going to end up in huge clusterfuck as it threatened the constitutional basis that we have lived under for generations. That comes to down to Cameron, he never thought he could lose as he had never lost in his life and was over confident, arrogant and complacent.

Whilst you think it was right you got a vote on membership I have to say that is fine but the vote was enacted for all the wrong reasons, it was never about the EU, it was always about Cameron's desire for power and his need to unify his party so it enabled that power to remain with him whilst at the same time neutering UKIP because he saw them as a threat to his hold on power.

Cameron will undoubtedly go down is history as a dreadful Prime Minister as he recklessly gambled his countries future for the sake of his parties future and his own absolutist need for power. Only a person so totally up his own arse and so self entitled would have ever considered himself so untouchable.

His actions are responsible for the utter chaos we have now, he is responsible for Johnson, for Farage, for Corbyn, For Swinson, for the SNP and the DUP as he unleashed the demons of English Nationalism and English exceptionalism onto the nation and for that he should never be forgiven.

As it stands now, his actions have put us in a place where even our own democracy is in danger and rather than lance the boil on the Tory backside he helped ferment the fervour of the nutjobs and given all that has happened since there is in my opinion only one solution that is tenable and that is to leave and face the consequences of what ever that may bring.

Congratulations call me Dave, you royally fucked up our country up but its alright has you have a cosy little caravan in which to spend your days, whilst the rest of us face a very uncertain future, threats to our democracy and a fucking madman in charge.

You utter twat.
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Ric should attach this post onto the top of every page of this thread.

It’s a devastatingly accurate description of Cameron and the Tory Party and how it’s their fault we’re totally fucked today.
 
From the FT. Think I can live with it until 2022. Johnson really needs a deal as it’s the only way he can hope to deliver the 31st Oct pledge. Of course when one side is desperate it tends to lead to deals that favour the other side.

‘Brexit secretary Steve Barclay floats idea of extending transition deal until 2022 (as per Theresa May plan)...more time for Stormont to be put back together and to produce the fabled "alternative arrangements"’

https://www.ft.com/content/36180344-d7b6-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17
 
BobKowalski said:
From the FT. Think I can live with it until 2022. Johnson really needs a deal as it’s the only way he can hope to deliver the 31st Oct pledge. Of course when one side is desperate it tends to lead to deals that favour the other side.

‘Brexit secretary Steve Barclay floats idea of extending transition deal until 2022 (as per Theresa May plan)...more time for Stormont to be put back together and to produce the fabled "alternative arrangements"’

https://www.ft.com/content/36180344-d7b6-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17
Click to expand...
Brexit secretary raises possibility of standstill transition deal

Britain could stay in a standstill transition deal with the EU until the end of 2022, Brexit secretary Steve Barclay has said, in a further sign that Tory Eurosceptics are softening their position to try to strike an exit deal with the EU.

Mr Barclay’s admission is crucial. If the transition were extended beyond its projected end date of December 2020 it would allow more time to reconvene the suspended Stormont assembly in Belfast. The body would play a role in the oversight of any deal.

It would also allow more time to put in place new technological systems — what Brexiters call “alternative arrrangements” — to avoid a hard border in Ireland.

Mr Barclay’s comments came ahead of a meeting between Boris Johnson, prime minister, and European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, in Luxembourg on Monday to explore the terms of the possible deal that Downing Street is now seeking.

Downing St did not deny that Britain might seek to extend the transition until 2022 — a move which would be welcomed by business. But a Number 10 source said: “We don’t see the need for a longer transition period. It’s not something that’s being discussed.”

The two sides remain far apart on the substance of a deal and the EU will insist on upfront guarantees that there can be no return to a hard border in Ireland under any circumstances as part of a final agreement.

Mr Johnson will tell Mr Juncker on Monday that he remains determined to leave the EU on October 31 with or without a deal, in spite of parliament legislating to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

Steve Barclay: 'there is a landing zone we can see' © Getty However Mr Barclay, a leading Eurosceptic, confirmed a new appetite for a deal on Sunday, telling Radio 5’s Pienaar’s Politics that “there is a landing zone we can see”. That optimism is not widely shared in EU capitals.

An extended transition period could be pivotal in any agreement; it preserves existing trading arrangements and buys both sides time. Labour said it would amount to “Brexit in name only”.

Theresa May agreed in her withdrawal deal last November that the transition would end in December 2020 but there could be “a single decision extending the transition period for up to one or two years”.

Mr Barclay, who meets EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier on Monday, highlighted this provision, saying that there was “scope for an extension by mutual consent”. His comments annoyed Number 10, but it was telling that there was no official denial.

A longer extension would allow more time to restore the Stormont assembly, suspended for almost three years, to give the people of Northern Ireland a say on the implementation of new EU rules under a revised backstop.

Brexit: why it's too soon to write off a Boris Johnson deal Mr Johnson has proposed keeping Northern Ireland in the single market for agriculture and food, removing the need for some health checks at the border.

But EU diplomats point out that this is only a small step and that, critically, it does not address issues of customs checks, tariffs and other border controls. They say there is no evidence of the “progress” in talks claimed by Downing St.

The prospect of a chaotic no-deal exit has driven many moderate Tories out of the party; on Saturday former universities minister Sam Gyimah became the third former Conservative MP to join the pro-EU Liberal Democrats, who are holding their conference in Bournemouth. Recommended Wolfgang Münchau Italian-style coalition could stop Brexit However, if Mr Johnson succeeded in formally leaving the EU before an election is held, it would counter the Lib Dems’ biggest political pitch.

Mr Johnson gave a typically bullish interview to the pro-Brexit Mail on Sunday in which he insisted that the UK would break free from its “manacles” like The Incredible Hulk on October 31 if he cannot secure a deal: “The madder Hulk gets, the stronger Hulk gets.”

The rhetoric is intended to reassure Tory Eurosceptic MPs that he is taking a tough position ahead of talks with Mr Juncker, but it has also caused concern in some European capitals that Mr Johnson is not negotiating in good faith.

One EU diplomat accused Mr Johnson of appearing “erratic” as he vows to break free of the bloc while at the same time playing up the chances of a deal.

"His strategy seems to change day by day," the diplomat said. “Right now we are getting a lot of aspiration from the UK negotiators and not a lot of substance or concrete proposals. It is not a constructive background to the meeting with Juncker.”
 
George Hannah said:
Brexit secretary raises possibility of standstill transition deal

Britain could stay in a standstill transition deal with the EU until the end of 2022, Brexit secretary Steve Barclay has said, in a further sign that Tory Eurosceptics are softening their position to try to strike an exit deal with the EU.

Mr Barclay’s admission is crucial. If the transition were extended beyond its projected end date of December 2020 it would allow more time to reconvene the suspended Stormont assembly in Belfast. The body would play a role in the oversight of any deal.

It would also allow more time to put in place new technological systems — what Brexiters call “alternative arrrangements” — to avoid a hard border in Ireland.

Mr Barclay’s comments came ahead of a meeting between Boris Johnson, prime minister, and European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, in Luxembourg on Monday to explore the terms of the possible deal that Downing Street is now seeking.

Downing St did not deny that Britain might seek to extend the transition until 2022 — a move which would be welcomed by business. But a Number 10 source said: “We don’t see the need for a longer transition period. It’s not something that’s being discussed.”

The two sides remain far apart on the substance of a deal and the EU will insist on upfront guarantees that there can be no return to a hard border in Ireland under any circumstances as part of a final agreement.

Mr Johnson will tell Mr Juncker on Monday that he remains determined to leave the EU on October 31 with or without a deal, in spite of parliament legislating to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

Steve Barclay: 'there is a landing zone we can see' © Getty However Mr Barclay, a leading Eurosceptic, confirmed a new appetite for a deal on Sunday, telling Radio 5’s Pienaar’s Politics that “there is a landing zone we can see”. That optimism is not widely shared in EU capitals.

An extended transition period could be pivotal in any agreement; it preserves existing trading arrangements and buys both sides time. Labour said it would amount to “Brexit in name only”.

Theresa May agreed in her withdrawal deal last November that the transition would end in December 2020 but there could be “a single decision extending the transition period for up to one or two years”.

Mr Barclay, who meets EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier on Monday, highlighted this provision, saying that there was “scope for an extension by mutual consent”. His comments annoyed Number 10, but it was telling that there was no official denial.

A longer extension would allow more time to restore the Stormont assembly, suspended for almost three years, to give the people of Northern Ireland a say on the implementation of new EU rules under a revised backstop.

Brexit: why it's too soon to write off a Boris Johnson deal Mr Johnson has proposed keeping Northern Ireland in the single market for agriculture and food, removing the need for some health checks at the border.

But EU diplomats point out that this is only a small step and that, critically, it does not address issues of customs checks, tariffs and other border controls. They say there is no evidence of the “progress” in talks claimed by Downing St.

The prospect of a chaotic no-deal exit has driven many moderate Tories out of the party; on Saturday former universities minister Sam Gyimah became the third former Conservative MP to join the pro-EU Liberal Democrats, who are holding their conference in Bournemouth. Recommended Wolfgang Münchau Italian-style coalition could stop Brexit However, if Mr Johnson succeeded in formally leaving the EU before an election is held, it would counter the Lib Dems’ biggest political pitch.

Mr Johnson gave a typically bullish interview to the pro-Brexit Mail on Sunday in which he insisted that the UK would break free from its “manacles” like The Incredible Hulk on October 31 if he cannot secure a deal: “The madder Hulk gets, the stronger Hulk gets.”

The rhetoric is intended to reassure Tory Eurosceptic MPs that he is taking a tough position ahead of talks with Mr Juncker, but it has also caused concern in some European capitals that Mr Johnson is not negotiating in good faith.

One EU diplomat accused Mr Johnson of appearing “erratic” as he vows to break free of the bloc while at the same time playing up the chances of a deal.

"His strategy seems to change day by day," the diplomat said. “Right now we are getting a lot of aspiration from the UK negotiators and not a lot of substance or concrete proposals. It is not a constructive background to the meeting with Juncker.”
Click to expand...

So we take May’s Withdrawal Agreement, stick a horn shell on it, call it a unicorn, claim victory and stay tied to the EU until 2022 (and beyond) and hope no one notices.

Meh I can live with it.
 
George Hannah said:
Brexit secretary raises possibility of standstill transition deal

Britain could stay in a standstill transition deal with the EU until the end of 2022, Brexit secretary Steve Barclay has said, in a further sign that Tory Eurosceptics are softening their position to try to strike an exit deal with the EU.

Mr Barclay’s admission is crucial. If the transition were extended beyond its projected end date of December 2020 it would allow more time to reconvene the suspended Stormont assembly in Belfast. The body would play a role in the oversight of any deal.

It would also allow more time to put in place new technological systems — what Brexiters call “alternative arrrangements” — to avoid a hard border in Ireland.

Mr Barclay’s comments came ahead of a meeting between Boris Johnson, prime minister, and European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, in Luxembourg on Monday to explore the terms of the possible deal that Downing Street is now seeking.

Downing St did not deny that Britain might seek to extend the transition until 2022 — a move which would be welcomed by business. But a Number 10 source said: “We don’t see the need for a longer transition period. It’s not something that’s being discussed.”

The two sides remain far apart on the substance of a deal and the EU will insist on upfront guarantees that there can be no return to a hard border in Ireland under any circumstances as part of a final agreement.

Mr Johnson will tell Mr Juncker on Monday that he remains determined to leave the EU on October 31 with or without a deal, in spite of parliament legislating to prevent a no-deal Brexit.

Steve Barclay: 'there is a landing zone we can see' © Getty However Mr Barclay, a leading Eurosceptic, confirmed a new appetite for a deal on Sunday, telling Radio 5’s Pienaar’s Politics that “there is a landing zone we can see”. That optimism is not widely shared in EU capitals.

An extended transition period could be pivotal in any agreement; it preserves existing trading arrangements and buys both sides time. Labour said it would amount to “Brexit in name only”.

Theresa May agreed in her withdrawal deal last November that the transition would end in December 2020 but there could be “a single decision extending the transition period for up to one or two years”.

Mr Barclay, who meets EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier on Monday, highlighted this provision, saying that there was “scope for an extension by mutual consent”. His comments annoyed Number 10, but it was telling that there was no official denial.

A longer extension would allow more time to restore the Stormont assembly, suspended for almost three years, to give the people of Northern Ireland a say on the implementation of new EU rules under a revised backstop.

Brexit: why it's too soon to write off a Boris Johnson deal Mr Johnson has proposed keeping Northern Ireland in the single market for agriculture and food, removing the need for some health checks at the border.

But EU diplomats point out that this is only a small step and that, critically, it does not address issues of customs checks, tariffs and other border controls. They say there is no evidence of the “progress” in talks claimed by Downing St.

The prospect of a chaotic no-deal exit has driven many moderate Tories out of the party; on Saturday former universities minister Sam Gyimah became the third former Conservative MP to join the pro-EU Liberal Democrats, who are holding their conference in Bournemouth. Recommended Wolfgang Münchau Italian-style coalition could stop Brexit However, if Mr Johnson succeeded in formally leaving the EU before an election is held, it would counter the Lib Dems’ biggest political pitch.

Mr Johnson gave a typically bullish interview to the pro-Brexit Mail on Sunday in which he insisted that the UK would break free from its “manacles” like The Incredible Hulk on October 31 if he cannot secure a deal: “The madder Hulk gets, the stronger Hulk gets.”

The rhetoric is intended to reassure Tory Eurosceptic MPs that he is taking a tough position ahead of talks with Mr Juncker, but it has also caused concern in some European capitals that Mr Johnson is not negotiating in good faith.

One EU diplomat accused Mr Johnson of appearing “erratic” as he vows to break free of the bloc while at the same time playing up the chances of a deal.

"His strategy seems to change day by day," the diplomat said. “Right now we are getting a lot of aspiration from the UK negotiators and not a lot of substance or concrete proposals. It is not a constructive background to the meeting with Juncker.”
Click to expand...


As the Johnson/Cummings tactical genius has reduced his majority to a huge minority and with the Lib Dems new policy announced today plus this probably pissing off the ERG and the DUP does this have any chance of success anyway???
 
Ban-jani said:
Ric should attach this post onto the top of every page of this thread.

It’s a devastatingly accurate description of Cameron and the Tory Party and how it’s their fault we’re totally fucked today.
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Cheers Ban, its my take on events of course but I think they are pretty close to the truth.

When you allow lunatics like Gove the latitude to criticise experts as being irrelevant to the public discourse you are obviously on a dangerous path, Cameron allowed this because of his arrogance,entitlement and inherent self belief. Gove's intervention brought me to this quote.

"there is no point in seeking to convert the intellectuals. For the intellectuals would never be converted and would anyway always yield to the stronger, and this will always be the man in the street, arguments must therefore be crude, clear and forcible, and appeal to emotions and instincts, not the intellect. Truth was unimportant and entirely subordinate to tactics and psychology"

This is not a criticism of those who voted leave, but that quote makes clear what forces Cameron unleashed and how nutjobs like Gove and Farage exploited the referendum for nefarious ends. The quote is from a rather famous exponent in the art of propaganda and misinformation, it is from Goebbels.
 
Rascal said:
Cheers Ban, its my take on events of course but I think they are pretty close to the truth.

When you allow lunatics like Gove the latitude to criticise experts as being irrelevant to the public discourse you are obviously on a dangerous path, Cameron allowed this because of his arrogance,entitlement and inherent self belief. Gove's intervention brought me to this quote.

"there is no point in seeking to convert the intellectuals. For the intellectuals would never be converted and would anyway always yield to the stronger, and this will always be the man in the street, arguments must therefore be crude, clear and forcible, and appeal to emotions and instincts, not the intellect. Truth was unimportant and entirely subordinate to tactics and psychology"

This is not a criticism of those who voted leave, but that quote makes clear what forces Cameron unleashed and how nutjobs like Gove and Farage exploited the referendum for nefarious ends. The quote is from a rather famous exponent in the art of propaganda and misinformation, it is from Goebbels.
Click to expand...

You missed a step somewhere. I'm following your argument at the moment but HOW that quote links to the Tory right I'm struggling to see?

Worth also pointing out that Goebbels pretty much built the modern political communications industry and all parties from the furthest left to the furthest right replicate his techniques and messaging. A clever man is a clever man, even if he was an evil man.
 
Telegraph with much of the same. The next EU 7 year budget cycle is in 2020 so assuming a WA deal can be done (which it can be given we already have one on the table) I can see us ‘staying’ until at least 2027 as there is no way we can sort out an acceptable future relationship framework by 2022. It’s taken us over two years to do the easy bit and it’s still not done.

The tricky bit is getting whatever we agree with the EU through Parliament. Still can’t see where the votes are coming from no matter what Johnson brings back. And it’s going to take a lot more than ‘bouncy confidence’. The EU are unlikely to be swayed by ‘bouncy’.

 
Damocles said:
You missed a step somewhere. I'm following your argument at the moment but HOW that quote links to the Tory right I'm struggling to see?

Worth also pointing out that Goebbels pretty much built the modern political communications industry and all parties from the furthest left to the furthest right replicate his techniques and messaging. A clever man is a clever man, even if he was an evil man.
Click to expand...

The technique of side lining expert opinion and the ridiculous notion they had nothing to offer the debate was Gove's intervention and it mirrors Goebbels thoughts on the intellectual of being unimportant to the debate as long as the message however crude was delivered to the masses. That in my opinion was intentional and it allowed the debate to become base. If experts are dismissed then expert opinion also becomes dismissed and propaganda becomes more effective as the people come to mistrust those with the real knowledge.

A case in point was the Tory minster who never realised the importance of Dover, an expert in international trade would never have made such a mistake but there knowledge bore no weight in the debate thanks to Gove's intervention.

Once experts are dismissed the room is open for the Charlatans to move in and exploit the lack of knowledge, which those on the further right like Farage and the ERG did with almost reckless abandon.

Like I said, this is no criticism of how anybody voted, its a synopsis of how Cameron's desire to save his own backside and stop his party from disintegrating over the EU came to him calling for a referendum and unleashing those forces that have been manipulating the electorate with their cynical propaganda. A throwback most definitely to the Goebbels playbook. Like you said, he was a clever man, he fooled a nation into believing in a cause, so he is an obvious choice to turn too if you want a victory so badly you are prepared to do anything to achieve it.
 
BobKowalski said:
So we take May’s Withdrawal Agreement, stick a horn shell on it, call it a unicorn, claim victory and stay tied to the EU until 2022 (and beyond) and hope no one notices.

Meh I can live with it.
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Gives the EU time to amend article 50 so a former member can rejoin without committing to joining the Euro.
 
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