Another new Brexit thread

[Chippy_boy]

The ERG are already issuing threats about the deal not being 'Brexit in name only' or they won't back it.

Yet, if they fail to back & deal, they will absolve themselves of all responsibility for not delivering Brexit, once again.

It's ok for them to oppose any deal at any time they see fit, but if the actual opposition oppose it, they are blocking Brexit.

That also seems to be the theme amongst the remainers on here: it's ok to block Brexit, provided you voted for it.

IF Johnson comes back with a deal (and it's a big IF) then we'll get to see just how much of this is bluster.

Johnson might be odious to most on here, but he's not odious to most ERG members I would suggest, and certainly a damned sight more persuasive to them than May ever was / ever could be. Based on her Remainer outlook and dismal, dank personality.

IF he comes back with a deal, there will have to be a lot of soul searching. Thinking about this logically, how would the ERG hope to get a better deal (harder Brexit) than whatever Boris comes back with? If there's a GE and a hung parliament, there is no way that results in a harder Brexit. If there's a Corbyn majority, then Brexit is dead. Only if there's a Tory GE victory do they have any chance. And paradoxically there is no chance of that if they block the deal, since Boris' ratings will be trashed, the Tories' with it and the GE lost.

So they don't really have any choice but to tow the line. The bluster at the moment is merely to make sure the deal is as "hard Brexit" as possible and that Boris doesn't cave in to some unpalatable EU stipulation.

If Boris comes back with a deal, I think 95%+ of Tories will back it and a handful of others as well. It will be very very close IMO.

 

[bluejon]

The ERG are already issuing threats about the deal not being 'Brexit in name only' or they won't back it.

Yet, if they fail to back & deal, they will absolve themselves of all responsibility for not delivering Brexit, once again.

It's ok for them to oppose any deal at any time they see fit, but if the actual opposition oppose it, they are blocking Brexit.

That also seems to be the theme amongst the remainers on here: it's ok to block Brexit, provided you voted for it.

Spot on. Saw an incredible interview last week on newsnight where one of the chief brexiters was kicking off about labour voting against May's deal and when it was pointed out he had also voted against the deal that was apparently different. And he wasn't taken to task on that. These pricks are destroying this country.

 

[mcfc1632]

Yet again, you've not responded to any of my points (I can't be that stupid as that was my predicted outcome) but you've called me stupid, again. As many other posters have pointed out, there isn't much point trying to discuss things with you. Have a lovely afternoon.

Sorry ?

You load a post with direct insults and then bitch when the part of the post that was not an insult is not treated with great respect

Yeah - that seems fair and reasonable

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

So logic suggests that there should be another vote held to determine if the preference if for the Irish Sea option or the alternative

Straight-forwards and should be done without delay - you see - there does not need to be all this drama that has been stirred up

Yeah, what a palava!
What are they like up north.

With respect, the Irish Sea option is a backstop solution, to the Brexit problem.
A vote on this issue is not an alternative or a logical next step in the evolution of the GFA. Since you earlier used the expression 'explosive' in talking about NI, intentionally I'd guess, let me say that forcing a referendum on Irish Unity which is what you seem to be suggesting as part of a Brexit, is akin to putting a gun against the heads of the NI people and asking, do you want to come with us in the UK or go with Ireland in the EU.
They've already said they would like to remain in the EU. Unfortunately nobody pointed out the two are mutually exclusive, following your train of thought.

The natural evolution of the GFA and a solution to the NI/Brexit problem are not the same thing and to to be forced to make them so is my definition of weaponising the issue.

I would suggest that it is not that straight forward and if you think it is, then I would like to see meat put on the bones of your original response to Alex above.

 

[bluejon]

Sorry ?

You load a post with direct insults and then bitch when the part of the post that was not an insult is not treated with great respect

Yeah - that seems fair and reasonable

When you start calling people stupid don't be surprised if they start insulting you. Anyway, I made it clear I consider it a complete waste of time discussing this with you so please go and mither someone else.

 

[Neville Kneville]

IF Johnson comes back with a deal (and it's a big IF) then we'll get to see just how much of this is bluster.

Johnson might be odious to most on here, but he's not odious to most ERG members I would suggest, and certainly a damned sight more persuasive to them than May ever was / ever could be. Based on her Remainer outlook and dismal, dank personality.

IF he comes back with a deal, there will have to be a lot of soul searching. Thinking about this logically, how would the ERG hope to get a better deal (harder Brexit) than whatever Boris comes back with? If there's a GE and a hung parliament, there is no way that results in a harder Brexit. If there's a Corbyn majority, then Brexit is dead. Only if there's a Tory GE victory do they have any chance. And paradoxically there is no chance of that if they block the deal, since Boris' ratings will be trashed, the Tories' with it and the GE lost.

So they don't really have any choice but to tow the line. The bluster at the moment is merely to make sure the deal is as "hard Brexit" as possible and that Boris doesn't cave in to some unpalatable EU stipulation.

If Boris comes back with a deal, I think 95%+ of Tories will back it and a handful of others as well. It will be very very close IMO.

Their plan has always been no deal. Davies started it all off when he was in the job. He didn't even turn up for meetings. That's why May ended up so involved.

They would be gutted if they had no option but to vote a deal through, as would Boris imo.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Their plan has always been no deal. Davies started it all off when he was in the job. He didn't even turn up for meetings. That's why May ended up so involved.

They would be gutted if they had no option but to vote a deal through, as would Boris imo.

Boris is working feverishly to get a deal or else he's toast. It's folly to believe otherwise IMO.

And who is the "they" you refer to? 40 of the 75 ERG members backed May's deal as we can see from the stats quoted above.

Or are you going to have another of your daft conspiracy theories about why they voted for something to hide their real objectives?

By the way, I am delighted enough people voted against May's deal. It was a *terrible* deal. There's almost zero I agree with Farage about, but even he said he'd rather Remain than that.

 

[bluejon]

Boris is working feverishly to get a deal or else he's toast. It's folly to believe otherwise IMO.

I don't think he is trying to get a deal. I suspect he's hoping that parliament will block his no-deal so he can go into the upcoming election as mr brexit and therefore stave off the challenge from farage. This is obviously a guess so we'll see if I'm right or not.

 

[Neville Kneville]

Boris is working feverishly to get a deal or else he's toast. It's folly to believe otherwise IMO.

And who is the "they" you refer to? 40 of the 75 ERG members backed May's deal as we can see from the stats quoted above.

Or are you going to have another of your daft conspiracy theories about why they voted for something to hide their real objectives?

They voted for it because they shat themselves that Parliament was about to cancel the fucker.

Their plan was to undo everything afterwards, but they have seen a possibility to con through a no deal & gone for it.

Note that all of them are now saying they will not vote for the same thing they voted for.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I don't think he is trying to get a deal. I suspect he's hoping that parliament will block his no-deal so he can go into the upcoming election as mr brexit and therefore stave off the challenge from farage. This is obviously a guess so we'll see if I'm right or not.

You may be right, but if that's the objective, why not just say so and do a deal with Farage? The Tories would very likely win a GE and probably with a majority if they had a pact with Farage where he agrees not to stand in Tory winnable seats. He's desperate to do a deal and yet Boris has ruled it out, insulting him in the process.

Hardly the actions of someone hell bent on no deal, surely?

 

[Neville Kneville]

I don't think he is trying to get a deal. I suspect he's hoping that parliament will block his no-deal so he can go into the upcoming election as mr brexit and therefore stave off the challenge from farage. This is obviously a guess so we'll see if I'm right or not.

He's hoping to have the 'right' to claim he did everything but was left with no option, rather than he's being paid to bring about a no deal Brexit.

They will try underhand shit, to bring it about.

If they fail, it's the opposition's fault.

 

[cibaman]

IF Johnson comes back with a deal (and it's a big IF) then we'll get to see just how much of this is bluster.

Johnson might be odious to most on here, but he's not odious to most ERG members I would suggest, and certainly a damned sight more persuasive to them than May ever was / ever could be. Based on her Remainer outlook and dismal, dank personality.

IF he comes back with a deal, there will have to be a lot of soul searching. Thinking about this logically, how would the ERG hope to get a better deal (harder Brexit) than whatever Boris comes back with? If there's a GE and a hung parliament, there is no way that results in a harder Brexit. If there's a Corbyn majority, then Brexit is dead. Only if there's a Tory GE victory do they have any chance. And paradoxically there is no chance of that if they block the deal, since Boris' ratings will be trashed, the Tories' with it and the GE lost.

So they don't really have any choice but to tow the line. The bluster at the moment is merely to make sure the deal is as "hard Brexit" as possible and that Boris doesn't cave in to some unpalatable EU stipulation.

If Boris comes back with a deal, I think 95%+ of Tories will back it and a handful of others as well. It will be very very close IMO.

If only he hadn’t sacked 21 Tories

 

[Neville Kneville]

You may be right, but if that's the objective, why not just say so and do a deal with Farage? The Tories would very likely win a GE and probably with a majority if they had a pact with Farage where he agrees not to stand in Tory winnable seats. He's desperate to do a deal and yet Boris has ruled it out, insulting him in the process.

Hardly the actions of someone hell bent on no deal, surely?

They want power for themselves.

 

[Chippy_boy]

They voted for it because they shat themselves that Parliament was about to cancel the fucker.

By jove he's got it.

And do you think they will feel less threatened now? Of course not. They are even more on the ropes now, much more. And what's more they have "their man" at the helm making whatever reassurances they want to hear. Unlike Mrs Dank.

 

[mcfc1632]

The republic of Ireland still demands that no hard border would be placed there and the EU logicly sees the need to back it's member, besides that they don't need to accept any need to a revision and likely simply disagree with youre perception. At the end of the day they have the agreement signed as it is and nominally the Uk has to respect it.

Surely, the idea to have some sort of border posts a few miles back from the real border ... it's kinda of a deliberate joke of sorts?

The most likely outcome is that the Remainers in the UK are successful in getting Brexit stopped

For that not to happen there needs to be a GE and if that is the case the outcome is very uncertain - although I believe that the Conservatives will be returned with a working majority.

If that happens things will move quickly and we - the UK and the EU, with Ireland's agreement, will agree to enter into a transition period during which the 'alternative arrangements' will be developed and if these, towards the end of transition, are not deemed to have satisfied EU's requirements then there will be a backstop impacting N.I. - a vote would need to be held to confirm the option N.I. wishes to choose

In the unlikely event that the EU will not - in those changed circumstances following a GE - agree to drop the UK wide backstop, then there will be an agreed transition period during which both parties will develop and implement procedures to accommodate a no-deal outcome

It does not need to be a situation full of drama

 

[Chippy_boy]

They want power for themselves.

Farage doesn't want any MPs, so sorry that argument is shot.

 

[The perfect fumble]

Boris is working feverishly to get a deal or else he's toast. It's folly to believe otherwise IMO.

And who is the "they" you refer to? 40 of the 75 ERG members backed May's deal as we can see from the stats quoted above.

Or are you going to have another of your daft conspiracy theories about why they voted for something to hide their real objectives?

Stop being daft.

The only feverish activity is the blame game, Johnson can't get a deal and he can't leave on October 31st, so he has two objectives.

1. Ensure the EU are blamed for the failure to get a deal.

2. Ensure remainers in Parliament are blamed for the extension.

That way, in the subsequent general election, he'll stand as a man of the people fighting the evil twin forces of the EU and Parliament.

 

[Chippy_boy]

He's hoping to have the 'right' to claim he did everything but was left with no option, rather than he's being paid to bring about a no deal Brexit.

They will try underhand shit, to bring it about.

If they fail, it's the opposition's fault.

Well I suppose that is a conspiracy theory of sorts, so passes the Neville test.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Stop being daft.

The only feverish activity is the blame game, Johnson can't get a deal and he can't leave on October 31st, so he has two objectives.

1. Ensure the EU are blamed for the failure to get a deal.

2. Ensure remainers in Parliament are blamed for the extension.

That way, in the subsequent general election, he'll stand as a man of the people fighting the evil twin forces of the EU and Parliament.

We'll see won't we mate. I'm going to stick my neck out and say there will be a breakthrough on the deal front this week, leading to a deal in principle and moves to vote on it in the HoC within the next 2 weeks. It's only a hunch and could be completely wrong, but we'll know in a few weeks.

 

[mcfc1632]

No it doesnt, and no it shouldnt...you only say this as you have often said that the views of the english are not being listened to.

The GFA was not "about" leaving or staying in the EU....that, to use one of your phrases, is secondary to the main issues(s) of the Agreement.

After all the bloodshed and the YEARS of negotiation why should we renegotiate or revise it. Why?

You have mentioned you lived/stayed in Dublin for a while...no disrespect to that, or Eamo and the boys, but Dublin is not Belfast...its not NI....it doesnt paint a full picture of the situation here.

My comment on Dublin was in answer to someone that was referring to the situation in the South - or so I thought

I have great empathy for the situation in the North. Although I have visited there often due to work I do not suggest that makes me 'understand'.

I would claim to have developed a level of understanding that I suggest is above that of the average Englishman due to having close friends that are 'deeply understanding' - I will be watching the match with them tonight in the pub they run in Cyprus.

But - no - nobody from outside N.I. can claim to 'understand'

But what I can say is that - regrettable though that it is - the situation of N.I. and the agreement that was established to represent an agreed way forward, cannot be seen by everybody the world over to dictate all policies and all futures for evermore.

Circumstances have changed and the UK has opted to Leave the EU which will therefore require changes to the situation between N.I. and Ireland - it is just a fact and accordingly all parties should be working together to reduce any disruption or change to a minimum

This is why I take such exception to parties deliberately weaponising the situation - that includes the DUP and SF as well as the EU.

The English also have a right to self-determination - that right is not exclusive to Scotland and N.I.