Another new Brexit thread

[1.618034]

Conversely, if we don’t leave, for around half the population, the sense of being swindled will be just as palpable.

Half of them will feel swindled whatever happens, mate. By my reckoning half of the country will be pissed off with leaving in any form. One half of the Leavers will be unhappy with either "No Deal" or a "Soft Deal", so 75% will be unhappy if we leave.

If we Revoke tomorrow, then only half will be pissed off. But, I actually think in that case, many "Leavers" (God I hate the vocabulary of Brexit!) would just be relieved it's all over, leaving approximately 25% pissed off.


The politics isn't going away whether we leave or stay. We/Parliament must do what's best for the majority and for the country, as soon as possible.

All an extension does is mean we keep going around in circles being freaked out by another deadline, all whilst being in the limbo/zombie state of Article 50.
We're a member but we're not.
We might be leaving or we might not.
We're definitely leaving on March 31st, or we're not.
We're definitely leaving on Halloween, or we're not.

The uncertainty is slowly killing any chance we have of coming out the other side positively, whatever happens.

We should never have invoked A50 before we had a plan and we still don't have one, over 3 years later! The way to solve that is to revoke and take back control of the situation.

The only way to get Brexit done is to revoke A50 on or before Halloween. Then dissolve Parliament, have a GE and let's get on with our fucking lives!

If the Tories/BP or whoever want to campaign on leaving, with a plan that includes what to do about Northern Ireland, in the next parliament, good luck to them. They'll need it, because most people are just sick to fucking death of it and there's no way that they would get a big enough majority in parliament to get it through IMO.

Meanwhile we're back in the EU, with a seat at the table, with business, the markets and industry relieved, no border between Northern Ireland and The Republic, no customs check delays and a government that can actually get on with running the country instead of being paralysed by this shit.

As to another referendum;
What's the point?
What will the question be?
Will it require a super-majority this time?
Will it be advisory?
Will they be able to follow through with it, if Leave "won" again?
When will it be? (IIRC It takes at least 22 weeks to sort out, once we've decided what the bleeding question is going to be.)

The last one opened Pandora's Box. Why do that again? Imagine the campaign, in this climate!? If a GE can't sort it, then how is another referendum that delivers a close result going to help?

We are a parliamentary democracy. Parliament decides our laws. If Brexit cannot get through parliament, then Brexit is dead.

Actually, no, it's worse than that! It's.... Un-dead! It died about a year ago, when the UK Gov/EU agreed Withdrawal Agreement was killed by the ERG et al. It's already devoured them and the rest of the Conservative party. Let's kill it before it kills us all!!!

STOP BREXIT!

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

Stop being daft.

The only feverish activity is the blame game, Johnson can't get a deal and he can't leave on October 31st, so he has two objectives.

1. Ensure the EU are blamed for the failure to get a deal.

2. Ensure remainers in Parliament are blamed for the extension.

That way, in the subsequent general election, he'll stand as a man of the people fighting the evil twin forces of the EU and Parliament.

I see it going differently.
No deal is forced through but it is simply blamed on the EU when it all goes horribly wrong for being difficult, then Johnson resigns after 'getting brexit done' and someone else is left to deal with the fallout much like how Cameron abandoned his post after the referendum

 

[mcfc1632]

Genuinely, why does the Brexit referendum (ahem) trump the GFA referendum? Considering the outcomes and requirements of the GFA....and also that a majority here voted to remain.

I think that I have addressed this?

Let me know if you do not think so

 

[Neville Kneville]

By jove he's got it.

And do you think they will feel less threatened now? Of course not. They are even more on the ropes now, much more. And what's more they have "their man" at the helm making whatever reassurances they want to hear. Unlike Mrs Dank.

They are hoping to capture the hearts of various braincells & get elected again. Then force though no deal citing the opposition as traitors.

 

[mcfc1632]

If it's a caring contest between an advisory referendum with a narrow result and an international legally binding treaty that ended 30 years of bloodshed and will be breached by your chosen policy, I think I can confidently say you don't care about the right thing.

Why cause unnecessary drama by suggesting they are binary - they can both be supported and protected

Such a statement is just being argumentative IMO - there is it seems a better dialogue to be had with those posters in N.I. and Ireland

 

[bluejon]

You may be right, but if that's the objective, why not just say so and do a deal with Farage? The Tories would very likely win a GE and probably with a majority if they had a pact with Farage where he agrees not to stand in Tory winnable seats. He's desperate to do a deal and yet Boris has ruled it out, insulting him in the process.

Hardly the actions of someone hell bent on no deal, surely?

Again, this is a guess, but maybe Johnson doesn't want to share his toys with anyone else?

 

[mcfc1632]

I would say an internationally brokered and recognized ground breaking peace treaty has primacy over a non binding referendum carried on the back of English votes when it comes to border arrangements.

Well - my view that the referendum has primacy is with regards to the full scope of Brexit

On the specific issue of the border the aspiration should be for no hard border of a nature that would be 'traditional' and for arrangements to be developed that make movement of trade and people hassle free - this of course could have been readily achieved with goodwill and close working and the issue not been weaponised.

 

[DrBlueBob]

Bollocks - the demand for a referendum is from Remainers and the EU with the expectation being that the decision will be reversed

I cannot believe that you can post that with a straight face - thoroughly dishonest

On implication - straight-forward fact

Of course the idea of a second referendum from the Remainers is on the basis of the decision being reversed. All I am seeing is the idea that the people who want to leave are somehow unable to vote in said second referendum and that thus it will be purely down to the will of the remainers. If those who wish for Brexit were in any way confident of the outcome of the vote why not go for it. As Vic says. If I were to ask a question and three years later there were no resolution (especially given how I suspect nobody knew how much of a clusterfuck this all is) then I respectfully suggest that maybe one ought to be able ask "Are you really sure that's what you want?" If it is then perhaps get the necessary qualifications as to how to achieve it.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Again, this is a guess, but maybe Johnson doesn't want to share his toys with anyone else?

As per my reply above, Farage has been explicit that all he's interested in in securing a no deal Brexit. He's said he doesn't even want any MPs so long as he gets this.

So the Tories wouldn't be sharing power with anyone.

 

[mcfc1632]

You have no self awareness whatsoever.

Less than anyone I have ever encountered.

You probably don't understand what I mean so I'll spell it out: you whine more about being a 'victim' than anyone else on the forum & you don't let a day go by, without doing it.

You are Mr Victim, of Victim Street, Victim, in Victimland & you even think your friends are victims too.

Bless - I just tell the truth of it

The truth of it is - and always has been - that the majority of abuse flows from Remain supporting posters towards Leave supporting posters. Just look at it today - you, BJ, WDB, Vic, BJon and others throwing abuse at me

I noticed when catching up from being a few days behind that the pack had singled out @Mëtal Bikër

It is what you guys do - I just put it down to your paucity of content and the fact that some of you and just rude and abusive by nature

I have seen claims that it goes both ways - those claims are generally always made by those that wish to suggest there is a level of balance when that is in fact not the case - aka its bollocks

 

[bluejon]

As per my reply above, Farage has been explicit that all he's interested in in securing a no deal Brexit. He's said he doesn't even want any MPs so long as he gets this.

So the Tories wouldn't be sharing power with anyone.

But that would mean johnson had needed farage's help in getting elected, and in my guess, Johnson's massive ego wouldn't be able to stomach that. Remember, i consider boris Johnson to essentially be a turd that grew legs.

 

[grunge]

As per my reply above, Farage has been explicit that all he's interested in in securing a no deal Brexit. He's said he doesn't even want any MPs so long as he gets this.

So the Tories wouldn't be sharing power with anyone.

Are you actually trusting what Farage says??

 

[Chippy_boy]

Are you actually trusting what Farage says??

In this context, of course. I think some of "you lot" are so bloody paranoid you cannot possibly think straight. If Johnson and Farage did a deal whereby Farage agrees not to stand in wards the Tories are realistically contesting, then I'd expect him to stick to it.

I don't want that to happen and I don't think there's any chance it will so it's a bit of a moot point, btw.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

The most likely outcome is that the Remainers in the UK are successful in getting Brexit stopped

For that not to happen there needs to be a GE and if that is the case the outcome is very uncertain - although I believe that the Conservatives will be returned with a working majority.

If that happens things will move quickly and we - the UK and the EU, with Ireland's agreement, will agree to enter into a transition period during which the 'alternative arrangements' will be developed and if these, towards the end of transition, are not deemed to have satisfied EU's requirements then there will be a backstop impacting N.I. - a vote would need to be held to confirm the option N.I. wishes to choose

In the unlikely event that the EU will not - in those changed circumstances following a GE - agree to drop the UK wide backstop, then there will be an agreed transition period during which both parties will develop and implement procedures to accommodate a no-deal outcome

It does not need to be a situation full of drama

Sorry for butting in, but I think some of our replies to each other have been crossing and answered in posts to other people.

We've discussed this previously and I've agreed that there is a good base for a solution to Brexit in there, but I don't agree on the simplicity of it.
There is a lot of logic to some elements of your plan, but I don't see it unfolding the way you do.
I think you suggested around two years transition at one point. You can correct me if I'm wrong.
I would think that that will cause quite a bit of drama Up North and here in Ireland. I do not see any onus on Boris or his majority government that you are sure would happen,
to actually do anything to solve the problem. From his perspective it will be job done and bye bye NI, not my problem anymore. I'm a little concerned that you seem also to be suggesting, let NI decide. If they choose to stay in the UK, you still have your hard border problem. It's not gone away ye know.

'The option NI wishes to choose' sounds simple but what you are talking about there is basically a hard border and stay in the UK, An Irish sea border and be treated differently to the rest of the UK. You are basically in the same situation as you are now except England/Wales are out, so that's alright then. (God knows what Scotland will do).

The only other option is a referendum to Unify Ireland or not. So you will have forced the GFA before anyone in the North or South wanted to, because England wants out.
Fair enough but that is quite a drama no matter how you want to play it down. It really is saying to the North we can't be arsed with you anymore, what do you want.

Can you not see that it is seen as no more than English Nationalism, in the guise of the UK when it suits, but opting out of UK responsibility first chance it gets.
I have said before, I don't have a problem with English Nationalism. It is a shame how it has been hijacked by certain elements, but it shouldn't stop English people of having the same pride in country that Scotland Wales or Ireland has. You have asked what about us, several times.
A valid question, but don't dress it up to be anything other than what it is. It steers you towards the break up of the UK. That's a conversation you should have had amongst yourselves first.
If that is what it is ultimately all about for people in England, and I'm not saying it is for everyone, I would have preferred the honesty to call it as it is.

Your own Union issues should have been addressed first.
From our point of view down south, we would love to see some sort of deal reached , that didn't drag the GFA prematurely into it.

Absolutely nothing about UK government negotiations so far have had NI interests at heart and I don't see that changing if a majority Tory government after a GE proceeded with the plan you have laid out. It looks to me like kicking the can down the road.

 

[George Hannah]

Half of them will feel swindled whatever happens, mate. By my reckoning half of the country will be pissed off with leaving in any form. One half of the Leavers will be unhappy with either "No Deal" or a "Soft Deal", so 75% will be unhappy if we leave.
If we Revoke tomorrow, then only half will be pissed off. But, I actually think in that case, many "Leavers" (God I hate the vocabulary of Brexit!) would just be relieved it's all over, leaving approximately 25% pissed off.
The politics isn't going away whether we leave or stay. We/Parliament must do what's best for the majority and for the country, as soon as possible.
All an extension does is mean we keep going around in circles being freaked out by another deadline, all whilst being in the limbo/zombie state of Article 50.
We're a member but we're not.
We might be leaving or we might not.
We're definitely leaving on March 31st, or we're not.
We're definitely leaving on Halloween, or we're not.
The uncertainty is slowly killing any chance we have of coming out the other side positively, whatever happens.
We should never have invoked A50 before we had a plan and we still don't have one, over 3 years later! The way to solve that is to revoke and take back control of the situation.
The only way to get Brexit done is to revoke A50 on or before Halloween. Then dissolve Parliament, have a GE and let's get on with our fucking lives!
If the Tories/BP or whoever want to campaign on leaving, with a plan that includes what to do about Northern Ireland, in the next parliament, good luck to them. They'll need it, because most people are just sick to fucking death of it and there's no way that they would get a big enough majority in parliament to get it through IMO. Meanwhile we're back in the EU, with a seat at the table, with business, the markets and industry relieved, no border between Northern Ireland and The Republic, no customs check delays and a government that can actually get on with running the country instead of being paralysed by this shit.
As to another referendum;
What's the point?
What will the question be?
Will it require a super-majority this time?
Will it be advisory?
Will they be able to follow through with it, if Leave "won" again?
When will it be? (IIRC It takes at least 22 weeks to sort out, once we've decided what the bleeding question is going to be.)
The last one opened Pandora's Box. Why do that again? Imagine the campaign, in this climate!? If a GE can't sort it, then how is another referendum that delivers a close result going to help?
We are a parliamentary democracy. Parliament decides our laws. If Brexit cannot get through parliament, then Brexit is dead.
Actually, no, it's worse than that! It's.... Un-dead! It died about a year ago, when the UK Gov/EU agreed Withdrawal Agreement was killed by the ERG et al. It's already devoured them and the rest of the Conservative party. Let's kill it before it kills us all!!!
STOP BREXIT!

Ah, the old Irish proverb - 'wherever we're going we shouldn't be starting from here' - but here, regrettably and unalterably, is where we now are. The constitutionally alien 2016 referendum, the 2017 election with both main parties mandated to honour its result, an underplanned invocation of A50 etc etc are all historical events and can't be wished away when trying to resolve the problem. It now looks like we can't get out at all without inflicting unnecessary economic damage on ourselves because of lack of proper preparation to meet the EU's unchanging objectives. The argument that a second referendum is a legitimate democratic solution would only be allowed to work if Remain won so, very reluctantly, I suggest we hold our noses vote Lib Dem and revoke. Then we need to reform the EU or find another way out if they continue along the path to a superstate.

 

[grunge]

In this context, of course. I think some of "you lot" are so bloody paranoid you cannot possibly think straight. If Johnson and Farage did a deal whereby Farage agrees not to stand in wards the Tories are realistically contesting, then I'd expect him to stick to it.

I don't want that to happen and I don't think there's any chance it will so it's a bit of a moot point, btw.

I was meaning about Farage only being interested in no deal.

I wouldn’t trust that sentiment in the slightest.

however I do agree a deal between tories and brexit party would be formidable. Only chance of opposing would be labour libdem doing the same and then adding snp in etc.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

Ah, the old Irish proverb - 'wherever we're going we shouldn't be starting from here' - but here, regrettably and unalterably, is where we now are. The constitutionally alien 2016 referendum, the 2017 election with both main parties mandated to honour its result, an underplanned invocation of A50 etc etc are all historical events and can't be wished away when trying to resolve the problem. It now looks like we can't get out at all without inflicting unnecessary economic damage on ourselves because of lack of proper preparation to meet the EU's unchanging objectives. The argument that a second referendum is a legitimate democratic solution would only be allpowed to work if Remain won so, very reluctantly, I suggest we hold our noses vote Lib Dem and revoke. Then we need to reform the EU or find another way out if they continue along the path to a superstate.

Unfortunately George, there is a lot of truth in that old proverb and yes you should be out because that is how you voted. But the reality of having had the referendum in the first place without proper thought and pretty much every turn your government has made since means that unless you want to keep on compounding your errors, I think you may be right.
What the hell that will do for society in the UK, I have no idea.

 

[1.618034]

Ah, the old Irish proverb - 'wherever we're going we shouldn't be starting from here' - but here, regrettably and unalterably, is where we now are. The constitutionally alien 2016 referendum, the 2017 election with both main parties mandated to honour its result, an underplanned invocation of A50 etc etc are all historical events and can't be wished away when trying to resolve the problem. It now looks like we can't get out at all without inflicting unnecessary economic damage on ourselves because of lack of proper preparation to meet the EU's unchanging objectives. The argument that a second referendum is a legitimate democratic solution would only be allpowed to work if Remain won so, very reluctantly, I suggest we hold our noses vote Lib Dem and revoke. Then we need to reform the EU or find another way out if they continue along the path to a superstate.

Yep, sounds good to me. Leading not Leaving.


BTW My Dad used to always tell that joke... Thanks for making me think of him.

 

[1.618034]

Unfortunately George, there is a lot of truth in that old proverb and yes you should be out because that is how you voted. But the reality of having had the referendum in the first place without proper thought and pretty much every turn your government has made since means that unless you want to keep on compounding your errors, I think you may be right.
What the hell that will do for society in the UK, I have no idea.

It won't be as bad as leaving with no deal or throwing NI under the bus. IMHO

 

[mcfc1632]

Yeah, what a palava!
What are they like up north.

With respect, the Irish Sea option is a backstop solution, to the Brexit problem.
A vote on this issue is not an alternative or a logical next step in the evolution of the GFA. Since you earlier used the expression 'explosive' in talking about NI, intentionally I'd guess, let me say that forcing a referendum on Irish Unity which is what you seem to be suggesting as part of a Brexit, is akin to putting a gun against the heads of the NI people and asking, do you want to come with us in the UK or go with Ireland in the EU.
They've already said they would like to remain in the EU. Unfortunately nobody pointed out the two are mutually exclusive, following your train of thought.

The natural evolution of the GFA and a solution to the NI/Brexit problem are not the same thing and to to be forced to make them so is my definition of weaponising the issue.

I would suggest that it is not that straight forward and if you think it is, then I would like to see meat put on the bones of your original response to Alex above.

I am enjoying the discussion with yourself and Alex - and I will try to contribute as much as I can - that said pre-match drinks start in a short while for me

Let me plant a seed though, for Alex and yourself.....

I will try and give as clear a response as I can - I do not claim to have great insights - just happy to discuss, but…..

Generally the majority of the discussion/posts around this topic comes from UK mainland based Remainers who seem to just see the topic as something to use to seek to stop Brexit. With a few notable exceptions, I regard their protestations to be both insincere and ill-informed.

I guess that it should not be a surprise that the better quality content tends to come from those living in N.I. and Ireland - at the coal-face so to speak - although some of the Ireland based posts, not yours, seem to be unnecessarily dripping with 'anti-English' tones.

So let's try and avoid a Westminster situation where all the interaction goes into screaming about what people don't want but little into what people do want.

So - probably have to be after the match now - can you guys give thought to what you would like to see given that the 2016 referendum has taken place and returned a decision to leave the EU. Simply saying versions of 'no fair' and that it should be cancelled just deny the reality - I see the 2016 referendum as every bit as important to my future as you see the GFA. I would hope that you can respect that English people have a right to seek to secure what they see as vital to their nation's future prosperity as I respect yours. What would you see as the options to address the border issue?

Personally I am struggling to get past the opinion that it is entirely within the capabilities of the 3 parties to establish alternative arrangements to maintain a situation where there is still free movement of people and trade - it just needs goodwill on all sides - FFS we could have been working together for 3 years already.

I would see a transition period of 2-3 years during which all arrangements can be finalised and workarounds developed where needed. The EU would/should be able to introduce controls that satisfy its concerns for the SM. Essentially the EU, Ireland and the UK draft the replacement GFA that will last for generations to come.

If there was not a successful outcome (replacement GFA) - and I believe that this will only not occur if there is a lack of goodwill - then there should be a vote in N.I. for self-determination of their future - 2 obvious options are a United Ireland or the Irish Sea border but I suspect you will suggest others.

The problem has been to date that there has been rank incompetence on the UK side and clever manipulation by the EU who want Brexit cancelled and the UK to Remain - or if not full control over key UK policies

What do you see as the options - given the starting point of the UK is leaving the EU. You will see from my viewpoint that I do not see it to be necessary for the UK to retain membership of the SM or CU for things to be resolved.