TBF - and please think before shouting at me - is there not some responsibility here for the people oh N.I. to get their act together and not have the future of the UK in a state of permanent limbo ?
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Another new Brexit thread
- Thread starter Ric
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Yes you areThat would only be the case if the backstop were invoked and even if it was invoked , it would only be the case until the future relationship is resolved. Or am I misunderstanding?
To me. Mays deal is a hard Brexit, it just takes longer to get there than a no deal and at least during the time it takes to get there we will not fall off a cliff edge economically.
And - genuinely with intended respect - being very naïve
Through control of the Uk's customs and fiscal policies, the EU will hold us in the backstop trap for however many years they need to totally neuter what they see as the threat of an independent major power just off their shoreline.
You are not alone - quite a lot seem to not understand the simple truths
HmmmmIsn’t Johnson’s fundamental problem that he has no control over parliament. Any legislation that he tables could be amended beyond recognition by the time it becomes law. Including having a confirmatory referendum tagged on.
that is why he must avoid bringing anything to parliament before a GE
Probably not because that is a truth that is happily gestating and sunning itself only in your imaginative cranium @mcfc1632Wow - fucking spot on!!!!
And Neville liked your post
Do you think that he understood that the truth of what you say totally unravels the doom and gloom bollocks that Remainers have been insisting are facts for years?
Be good to get back to our questions of yesterday - which of course have been informed by the news today, but in answer to this post...…..And this is where your original plan falls down at the 'goodwill' proviso, that you stipulated.
You only have to look at how long it took to put the GFA together.
Every line, every phrase in that document was forensically scrutinised by the Unionist side in particular (UUP) to make sure it was something they could live with.
There is or was no goodwill. It was mistrust far worse than anything between the UK and the EU across a very divided community.
Promises for the future were meaningless unless it could be put down in writing in a binding legal document. Lip-service doesn't go down well in the North.
The DUP did not sign up for it, but as Alex has stated previously it finally got a 72% approval on the Northern side of the border.
The problem with the backstop as it is at the moment, from your perspective is the lack of trust that the EU won't seek to find a way to end it.
From our perspective, it was negotiated in good faith and the reason we agreed to it was that if you put a time line on it, we do not trust that your government will seek a solution once you are out and we don't think there is a solution on the near horizon.
I think it is so transparent what Johnson is at, that although diplomatically our government or the EU can't come out and say it, but really it seems pointless dealing with him.
The hope would be that you have a GE and one side or the other gets a majority, even if it is him, as no meaningful plans can be made until you have a government that are capable of getting a workable solution through parliament.
I think we all agree this is a mess of your own making and quite apart from what you perceive as negotiating errors from your side, the biggest mess still seems to me to be that you had a referendum in the first place that returned a result that could not be interpreted along traditional GE party divisions.
However your parliament at every turn is voting and scheming along those very lines, although their own parties are riven on the subject.
This is not our mess and there really is little we can do about it when you have a hung parliament in Britain.
You say "And this is where your original plan falls down at the 'goodwill' proviso, that you stipulated. You only have to look at how long it took to put the GFA together....."
Sorry - but (respectfully) you are missing the main point I am/was making - I was saying that things can be resolved with goodwill from the 3 parties - and I am sure that this is true.
Of course it is also true that goodwill is in the bin at the moment - but that can easily change.
There is no way that any of the parties will come to some 'accord' at the moment
Sensibly, the EU and Ireland will wait to see if the sycophants at Westminster can complete the undermining of the UK - if that (likely) happens they do not have to do anything and can stand proud and look consistent. So why would they do anything other than wait and hope for the sycophants to be successful?
If the sycophants are not successful and the EU then face a genuine threat of no-deal they will (most likely) agree a fettering of the backstop (that can be explained as not offering compromise - indeed we always had this on the table!!! etc.) and we will enter into a transition period in which things can be settled without the heat of constant public glare - and therefore accommodations can be made.
It is just negotiating and we need to make the EU get off their 'perch' and face some real choices. If we do - the outcome is pretty obvious IMO.
Cheadle_hulmeBlue
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I think it’s pretty clear now it doesn’t matter what the deal is or could have been. Labour and the other parties won’t vote for anything.
It will play into the conservatives hands as they can just say they want to stop Brexit
I will say it’s good to see the uk standing up to the eu and actually trying to negotiate unlike Theresa may. It’s up to the eu now whether they want this deal or no deal
It will play into the conservatives hands as they can just say they want to stop Brexit
I will say it’s good to see the uk standing up to the eu and actually trying to negotiate unlike Theresa may. It’s up to the eu now whether they want this deal or no deal
I again (largely) agree - from the perspective of Ireland.....And putting a 2-3 year time limit on it simply puts NI/Ireland in the same situation 2-3 years down the line.
No Deal is not the threat you think it is under present circumstances. There is serious work needed before NI leaves the EU. The same care that went into the GFA would be required in drafting the legal documents necessary. It wouldn't happen in the present mess.
Might as well take the hurt now and prepare for 5-10 years down the road.
So what (IMO) will happen is:
1/ that we have a 2-3 time limit on the UK wide backstop
2/ All parties wake up and start working together to accommodate that (there's a year lost)
3/ We get on track for agreeing the workable 'alternative arrangements' - it is afterall in the interests of all three parties once the politics stops
4/ The UK will exit the backstop in 2023 and (probably) N.I. will remain in because a) a referendum has to be held that leads to them making that choice, or b) there is an agreed level of work that is required (spoiler - it will be very small) to complete the pre-determined exit criteria.
Re: "No Deal is not the threat you think it is under present circumstances....."
Sorry - I really think that you are wrong.
Annoyingly for a lot on here, it has always been true that:
"We will not see movement from the EU unless and until they face the prospect of a viable walk-away option and the political will to use it"
I have explained the outcome above - that is a version of what will happen if the EU have to react to the UK not being undermined by the sycophants.
The EU will not choose to push the main countries in the EU into a ruinous recession
The EU will not choose to push Ireland into a ruinous situation that will take them (literally) generations to recover from
Ireland will not choose to 'for historical nationalistic pride' and a 'desire (in some) to - do the UK down)' - if the price is (literally) damage that will take generations to recover from
IMO - it is pretty straight-forward
But...... Politics - that can always fuck things up....
Coming in peace when I say this, but this deal Johnson has given Brussels is a turd. There is no way in hell any country on the planet would agree to an open doorway into their market, which apparently this deal does, with no agreement that would close if customs alignment between the UK and the EU drifted apart. This isn't a serious negotiation, it's being done so people think he's standing up to the EU. He's not, he's being a dick.I think it’s pretty clear now it doesn’t matter what the deal is or could have been. Labour and the other parties won’t vote for anything.
It will play into the conservatives hands as they can just say they want to stop Brexit
I will say it’s good to see the uk standing up to the eu and actually trying to negotiate unlike Theresa may. It’s up to the eu now whether they want this deal or no deal
You are not half as clever as you seem to try to beSo everyone in the UK other than the roughly 11 million non-Labour English Leave voters is duplicitous? All 54 million?
I've heard it all now.
I recommend that you think before you embarrass yourself - that was an utter fail
west didsblue
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You should obtain some self awareness and follow your own advice.You are not half as clever as you seem to try to be
I recommend that you think before you embarrass yourself - that was an utter fail
If you were half as clever as you think you are you’d be 10 times as clever as you actually are.
I think that you are missing many significant points.....So the same people that were adamant that taking no deal off the table would be disastrous for our negotiating position now are saying we’d be better off leaving with no deal then negotiate after? So we’d be negotiating new trade deals not only with the EU but all the other nations around the world from the most desperate of situations?
The best that the UK can achieve now - after May's fuck ups - is a WA that is like hers but removes the unfettered backstop
It follows for that to be achieved that the EU and UK would need to agree a whole range of things during the transition period
But...…..……...
With the threat of a UK wide backstop the EU would (rightly) exult in shafting us royally
Without the threat of a UK wide backstop the EU would come to a range of sensible accommodations
I do - and I said something different - that the issue had been deliberately weaponised by the EU - and I have been proven totally correctDoes everyone remember @mcfc1632 telling us the Irish border issue was being fabricated and exaggerated by remain voters?
It is all just political manoeuvring
I am not expecting you to understand
Correct - we need a GE to sweep away the bollocks at Westminster and deliver whatever the people decide they want in 2019Don’t worry mate even if the Eu like it parliament won’t vote for it .
Now you're talking - if only you understood the words;-)Reckon he'll be along soon to tell you that everything would have been fine if it weren't for the issue being 'weaponised' by the EU and their 'acolytes' in the HOC and probably the Irish themselves.
Option A: you work with your geographical close partners and the major export market that you are oh sooooooo dependent on to establish a situation where all can thrive...…..Can't see anyway the Irish will agree to this.
I originally thought that the negotiations were somewhat of a sham and I only see this as a strengthening of that neither
or
Option b): you choose an outcome that will utterly fuck the economy of your nation for generations to come......
Proper tough call
The moment those are the options have to be faced up to will be the moment all the 'faux bollocks' will stop
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Rascal
El Presidente
Anything to do with the World Trade Organization decision paving the way for $7.5bn in US tariffs on EU goods?
Quite possibly and I also suspect it has to do with the ongoing Trade disputes with China affecting American supply chains, they do say if America sneezes the world catches the cold. As that dispute escalates investors take refuge in bonds but around a quarter of bonds worldwide are showing negative yields. Probably a consequence of Quantitative easing after the 2008 crash that resulted from their being too many libraries in Wolverhampton as Alexi Sayle said :)
Because interest rates are already so low, there is no room for fiscal stimulus. As far as I understand it we could actually do with a rise in inflation, but central governments hate that because it hits savings and increases already growing inequality.
It could be bumpy, i hope not because if we leave the EU whilst we are in a recession it could make things worse obviously and not just for us but for the EU too. Everybody suffers.
Staying within the EU protectionist regime and seeing the UK 'whither on the vine' would be less immediately painful - but much more damaging in the loner termAbout a week ago I did a post explaining about the worrying trends in the American bond markets that usually signify a downturn or even a recession.
Today the Stock Market has suffered its biggest losses for 3 years and other worldwide markets are following suit.
I am fairly fine with leaving, about 60/40 in favour, but if the economic markers that we have seen today get worse leaving now without a deal could be economic suicide.
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1.618034
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No shit, Sherlock!Coming in peace when I say this, but this deal Johnson has given Brussels is a turd. There is no way in hell any country on the planet would agree to an open doorway into their market, which apparently this deal does, with no agreement that would close if customs alignment between the UK and the EU drifted apart. This isn't a serious negotiation, it's being done so people think he's standing up to the EU. He's not, he's being a dick.
-)
People are sooo entrenched in their positions they have long since lost the ability to think things throughThere's going to be some serious egg of faces around here when the deal is done.
Just sayin.
Do you ever (recently) think before posting?He was opposed to the backstop because we would be in thrall to the EU. We'll see if he's ok with us (and the whole EU) being in thrall for ever to the DUP?
Calm down with this need to (in your mind) make some cheap point - it just makes you look silly and confirms the opinion that you have regressed to 'pack quality' posting
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