Another new Brexit thread

[Vic]

And this morning's Brexit boost. Fish exports - no-one knows how prepared UK exporters are for the extra paperwork needed to export fish to the EU. But a combination of uncertainty and extra tariffs and firms not bothering might mean that - the good news! - delays might be less of a problem because we won't be exporting as much...

 

[yerwot?]

The Guardian's economics editor's view has been called in aid (it won't be that bad) twice this last few days. A bit weird this but I turned on the phone this a.m. and the following link was open and I don't recall seeing it last night and don't know where it linked from.

Obviously I was meant to share it with you

It's from before the referendum - so before any one of the respondents realised how chaotically the Tories might play a Leave win.


https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/economists-views-brexit

Flesh wound, let's call it a draw...

 

[Saddleworth2]

As I recall they were given one and turned independence down, the absurdity is we still have a group of nationalists infesting parliament. I suppose it's marginally preferable to them wandering about sticking chewing gum in the doorlocks of folk they think should move south.

Infesting parliament George? What a very arrogant and colonial attitude. I'm no nat but I can see why language like that drive many scots to have nationalistic affiliation.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

At least the IFS think everything will be fine......


Key findings

• Whether – and if so how and when – the UK leaves the European Union will be perhaps the key determinant of growth over the next few years. Obviously, Brexit will define the terms on which the UK trades with its largest trading partner. But different Brexit outcomes may also be tied to different political outcomes in Westminster, and these come with very different sets of domestic policies that would significantly affect the economy.
  
  
• In our base scenario, the UK continues to delay Brexit. In this scenario, we assume a further fiscal loosening of between 1 and 2% of GDP. There would be a chance of small rate cuts. Growth remains below 1% in 2020 and, while it then picks up, it remains very poor, below 1½% in 2021 and 2022.
  
  
• Securing a Brexit deal would be better for the economy over the next two to three years than another delay. If this were to come with tax cuts and further spending increases together worth 1 to 1½% of GDP (over and above the loosening at the September 2019 Spending Round), then growth should pick up to (a still poor) 1½% a year in the short term. Some pent-up investment should occur, and consumer confidence would improve, as the risk of a no-deal Brexit recedes.
  
  
• A ‘no-deal’ Brexit would be economically considerably worse, even under a relatively benign scenario. We assume this would happen under a Conservative-led government, which would implement further fiscal loosening totalling 2% of GDP. Interest rates are cut to zero alongside £50 billion of quantitative easing. Private consumption and investment growth falls while net trade is also a drag on growth. Overall, the economy does not grow over the next two years, and grows by just 1.1% in 2022, leaving it 2½% smaller in that year than under our base case.
  
  
• Revoking Brexit would lead to the best economic outcome. We assume this would require a Labour-led government which, as well as revoking Brexit, would also implement significant tax and spending increases, an overall fiscal loosening and some tightening of labour market regulations. Interest rates would also rise more quickly. This might result in growth of 2% a year. Crucially, this scenario involves a Labour-led coalition rather than a majority Labour government.
  
  
• In the short term, implementation of the full 2017 Labour manifesto would offset at least some of the economic benefits of remaining in the EU.Widespread nationalisations, handing 10% of share capital of large companies to employees while redirecting some dividends to the Treasury, or other policies that might reduce private sector investment significantly, would challenge the UK’s traditional ‘business model’ and risk damaging growth by an amount it is not possible to quantify. Unlike Brexit, at least some of these policies will be reversible under future governments.

Highlights and graphs here: https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14421

Full article is here: https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/GB2019-Chapter-3-UK-economic-outlook-in-four-Brexit-scenarios.pdf

 

[Vic]

Boris going all out to destroy European relations according to the Tory Jarvis Cocker.

Is that a draft of the Queen's Speech (the "gracious speech")?

Actually, it might not be a bad idea. "My government will be beastly to other European nations - but to our European friends, please don't worry because this speech will be voted down by my loyal opposition."

 

[Saddleworth2]

It's sad that a group like the SNP are in the UK parliament.
Attack them.

why would you have a problem with SNP sitting in westminster when they have been elected to serve the best interests of their constituents? I thought that was called democracy.

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

Serious question, for fans and opponents of Boris alike.

Do those eyes not make you think ‘Glenn Close, Fatal Attraction?’

Once again .... Whose Boris ?

 

[blueinsa]

You clarified what you meant about Cheetham Hill - i.e. clarified that it wasn't intended as racist.

"Bitter fuckers with huge chips on each shoulder" as a national characteristic sounds just a teeny bit racist to me. I'm sure his Scottish friends and neighbours would love to know that's what he thinks.

Those that do nothing but spout their anti English diatribe know exactly what I think.

Bitter fuckers with huge chips on both shoulders.

 

[Saddleworth2]

He is not he is saying that at the time of the Scots ref they were promised they could stay in the union and the eu . Fact

However since then ( as things move on) there has been a referendum and leave the eu won in the uk . Fact.

That does change things and the snp are using that change as a means of canvassing a new referendum on leaving those nasty English.

That’s it. Do it. Have one. Things will change if we leave the eu but as I say that is entirely for the Scots. Circumstances will have changed.

If it means I don’t have to listen to the acceptable face of xenophobia, which is shouting anti English crap whilst wearing a suit , then it’s another brexit dividend for me.

There seems to be a fair amount of anti Scots rhetoric on this thread at the moment. I suppose they are an easy target as they overwhelmingly rejected leaving the EU and then their MP’s (all democratically elected) have the temerity to try and represent the best interests of their constituents. It’s a great shame as those that are attacking the Scots are simply showing where their priorities lie, England and Brexit as a priority over the Union. Calling out the Scots does seem a touch ironic.

 

[Saddleworth2]

Bitter fuckers with huge chips on each shoulder is probably even more accurate.

You seem to have a very bitter opinion of Scots. Is this based on their personal interaction with you (or a loved one)?

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

Thats abuse of power.....

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

There seems to be a fair amount of anti Scots rhetoric on this thread at the moment. I suppose they are an easy target as they overwhelmingly rejected leaving the EU and then their MP’s (all democratically elected) have the temerity to try and represent the best interests of their constituents. It’s a great shame as those that are attacking the Scots are simply showing where their priorities lie, England and Brexit as a priority over the Union. Calling out the Scots does seem a touch ironic.

Not really Scotland is a great country with great rivers walking and golf courses. Lots of Scots are a great laugh on a night . You are are perhaps confusing people being fed up with having to listen to the English hating snp every week and the normalisation of it.

Also people are respecting the people of Scotland’s democratic right to determine their own fate which I absolutely do.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

I'm no fan of the SNP but the Scottish people can vote for whoever they want. If they think that the main UK wide parties don't do enough for them, then it's hardly surprising that they have picked up a lot of support.

So if they want to break up the union, their avowed aim, why all the angst when we, after suffering their presence in our parliament, tend to want the same result? We never instigated this anti English sentiment they did, but if they wish to push it, well, they can crack on.

 

[blueinsa]

You seem to have a very bitter opinion of Scots. Is this based on their personal interaction with you (or a loved one)?

Live and work in Scotland and have done for the last 8 years.

Majority are fantastic people, welcoming and much like the majority dont discuss independance or brexit.

Unfortunately there is a group that always will and their anti English rhetoric pours from them.

I refer to those as the bitter fuckers with huge chips on their shoulders and they are best exemplified by their representatives in Westminster.

Nasty little Nationalists and remainers to boot.

Imagine that?

 

[Saddleworth2]

Not really Scotland is a great country with great rivers walking and golf courses. Lots of Scots are a great laugh on a night . You are are perhaps confusing people being fed up with having to listen to the English hating snp every week and the normalisation of it.

Also people are respecting the people of Scotland’s democratic right to determine their own fate which I absolutely do.

No, I’m not confused. The language on this thread is very imprecise. I don’t know many SNP MP’s personally but wouldn’t argue that some of them may well be ‘English haters’. However I don’t hear them being overtly critical of the ‘English’ in public. Westminster, the Conservative Government, policy, Brexit, yes for sure, but the English as a whole, I must have missed that. The vast majority of Scots are not anti English but you wouldn’t guess that from this thread.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

why would you have a problem with SNP sitting in westminster when they have been elected to serve the best interests of their constituents? I thought that was called democracy.

I don't have a problem with any democratically elected representatives, the discussion veered to Scots independence.
I was supporting the SNP's objectives.

 

[Saddleworth2]

Live and work in Scotland and have done for the last 8 years.

Majority are fantastic people, welcoming and much like the majority dont discuss independance or brexit.

Unfortunately there is a group that always will and their anti English rhetoric pours from them.

I refer to those as the bitter fuckers with huge chips on their shoulders and they are best exemplified by their representatives in Westminster.

Nasty little Nationalists and remainers to boot.

Imagine that?

Good for you mate.
Scotland is predominantly Remain though so you will have difficulty avoiding that aspect. Whilst I have been a staunch Scottish unionist I wouldn’t deny the nats their voice or their representatives. Quite the reverse, I have been quite impressed by the behaviours and the contributions made by them in Westminster.

 

[Saddleworth2]

I don't have a problem with any democratically elected representatives, the discussion veered to Scots independence.
I was supporting the SNP's objectives.

And until they are achieved it is right and proper that they send democratically elected representatives to Westminster. Good we agree on that then.

 

[stonerblue]

Live and work in Scotland and have done for the last 8 years.

Majority are fantastic people, welcoming and much like the majority dont discuss independance or brexit.

Unfortunately there is a group that always will and their anti English rhetoric pours from them.

I refer to those as the bitter fuckers with huge chips on their shoulders and they are best exemplified by their representatives in Westminster.

Nasty little Nationalists and remainers to boot.

Imagine that?

From memory you were referring to Nationalists and not all Scots so the hard time you're getting seems a little OTT to me.

 

[blueinsa]

From memory you were referring to Nationalists and not all Scots so the hard time you're getting seems a little OTT to me.

Hard times and these threads go hand in hand but yes, only nationalists mate.