Another new Brexit thread

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blueinsa said:
See.....deal will be agreed, each side will claim victory and that they got what they wanted and the world will move on.

Happy days ;-)
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blueinsa said:
See.....deal will be agreed, each side will claim victory and that they got what they wanted and the world will move on.

Happy days ;-)
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Let's hope so.

Bit early yet, but the hardly-suppressed smile on Varadkar's face make me think this might not fly with the DUP or ERG. But we'll see.

Believe me, if it's over by Halloween, I'll be happy too.
 
blueinsa said:
See.....deal will be agreed, each side will claim victory and that they got what they wanted and the world will move on.

Happy days ;-)
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You say that but with the first two callers I’ve heard in the radio one ‘doesn’t trust’ what’s going on and there other doesn’t want a deal and wants us to have a clean Brexit and go and do one with Trump.....

I appreciate it’s late night radio and may not be entirely representative
 
blueinsa said:
Those cunts are getting no deal off us.

They are going nowhere.
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Precedent mate. Commit to treating NI as a special case with special customs arrangements then Scotland is going to be first in the queue demanding independence and reassuring Scots that they can have their cake and eat it. Sure it’s going to place some admin costs on business but look at the prize and also look; both the UK and the EU agreed to it as a transitional stage or bridge between two unions.

You know who ain’t getting cake and eating it? England.

But we are getting ahead of ourselves. Dublin on side so Brussels will probably look at this as a basis for negotiations. Question is will DUP go for it. Or ERG Tories.
 
BobKowalski said:
You know who else I reckon will be interested to see if this can fly? The SNP.
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The SNP wake starts on October 31st if a genuine Brexit happens. Independence would simply never be a rational option if the UK is outside the EU, it would mean they are finished along with Plaid - both flying straight to earth. Clearly the situation in Northern Ireland is different.
 
blueinsa said:
See.....deal will be agreed
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That deal could have been agreed 3 years ago if the DUP and ERG hadn't thrown a hissy fit. Johnson still has to get it through parliament while retaining his core support as PM. It's the deal that would have happened if May hadn't gambled on that election.
 
BobKowalski said:
Precedent mate. Commit to treating NI as a special case with special customs arrangements then Scotland is going to be first in the queue demanding independence and reassuring Scots that they can have their cake and eat it. Sure it’s going to place some admin costs on business but look at the prize and also look; both the UK and the EU agreed to it as a transitional stage or bridge between two unions.

You know who ain’t getting cake and eating it? England.

But we are getting ahead of ourselves. Dublin on side so Brussels will probably look at this as a basis for negotiations. Question is will DUP go for it. Or ERG Tories.
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The SNP are finished with brexit done.
 
BobKowalski said:
This may or may not be at the heart of it. As it relates only to NI EU could probably wear it. Maybe.

The only solution currently under discussion that could square the customs circle is a reduced version of Theresa May’s New Customs Partnership. This would see NI leave the EU customs union with the rest of the UK but it would be treated administratively as if it was part of it. The proposal has problems for both sides but it satisfies the most important concerns of each of them.@IrishTimes.
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For how long does the "pretence" (i.e. pretending NI is still in the EU) go on for? If it isn't to be permanent, what would need to happen so that NI eventually is the same as the rest of the UK? Is there - drum roll - a backstop?

If this is the way forward, and it was available three years ago, there will still be a blame game.
 
George Hannah said:
The SNP wake starts on October 31st if a genuine Brexit happens. Independence would simply never be a rational option if the UK is outside the EU, it would mean they are finished along with Plaid - both flying straight to earth. Clearly the situation in Northern Ireland is different.
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The thin end of the wedge says hi.
 
George Hannah said:
The SNP wake starts on October 31st if a genuine Brexit happens. Independence would simply never be a rational option if the UK is outside the EU, it would mean they are finished along with Plaid - both flying straight to earth. Clearly the situation in Northern Ireland is different.
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I couldn't be bothered following the to and fro on Scotland (especially with the latent racism) but why would the electors in Scotland (presumably including blueinsa) think it irrational to want independence and to join the EU? (Even without the thought that Brexit itself is irrational.)
 
Vic said:
I couldn't be bothered following the to and fro on Scotland (especially with the latent racism) but why would the electors in Scotland (presumably including blueinsa) think it irrational to want independence and to join the EU? (Even without the thought that Brexit itself is irrational.)
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See below.
BobKowalski said:
The thin end of the wedge says hi.
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If Brexit happens the EU will be severely weakened, possibly terminally. They will be looking to lose poor nations not acquire them, both Scotland and Wales will soon be counting their current blessings. As prospective small member states, separated from the EU by their primary market, their economies could never survive unsupported in the trading environment that would follow our departure. Precedents just don't come into it, economic interest will drive all the decisions and England holds all the cards in that context. As I said, the NI is different but this deal gives the Unionists their best chance of remaining in the UK.
 
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Vic said:
For how long does the "pretence" (i.e. pretending NI is still in the EU) go on for? If it isn't to be permanent, what would need to happen so that NI eventually is the same as the rest of the UK? Is there - drum roll - a backstop?

If this is the way forward, and it was available three years ago, there will still be a blame game.
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It will form the basis of the Withdrawal Treaty which sets it in stone. The consent aspect may relate to only NI can void this agreement and only if DUP and Sinn Fein jointly agree to void it. So DUP veto goes and this new arrangement is the default.

But there is a long way to go to get this into legally operable text that satisfies Brussels and Westminster but I reckon it’s enough for Brussels to enter into negotiations. The big immediate question is Unionist and ERG Tory reaction.

And all this assumes that this is the common ground that Dublin and London have settled on.
 
George Hannah said:
See below.
If Brexit happens the EU will be severely weakened, possibly terminally. They will be looking to lose poor nations not acquire them, both Scotland and Wales will soon be counting their current blessings. As small member states, separated from the EU by their primary market, their economies could never survive unsupported in the trading environment that would follow our departure. Precedents just don't come into it, economic interest will drive all the decisions and England holds all the cards in that context. As I said, the NI is different but this deal gives the Unionists their best chance of remaining in the UK.
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Er. Yeah. George put down the hippie crack and clear your head.
 
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