Another new Brexit thread

[MillionMilesAway]

We are now getting into a debate about whether the backstop was acceptable or not. That was not the question and it's somewhat irrelevant because the backstop is dead.

Challenged the claim that it would tie the UK indefinitely, which will be used by Johnson as a justification for his deal.

Happy to leave it though.

 

[M18CTID]

That's one take on it,another could be that he conceded first.
The point is that most people in GB don't care about NI and so a foreign border in the middle of the UK doesn't bother them, that's why he did it.
But the long term implications for the Union could be profound. Whether he cares about that is anyone's guess.

I don't disagree with a lot of that. Whoever has blinked first, I'm not arsed about really - I just think it's for the best that we get out with a deal and it gets done sooner rather than later because this can't drag on forever and even a perceived bad deal is better than No Deal. But don't tell Theresa May that.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

The country surely cant go on an on like this, I just hope this deal goes through and we can all move on from this stalemate and deal with other pressing issues such as knife crime, homelessness, and health care etc. No one knows for certain what is round the corner for the economy, but the recent polling clearly shows there is still more support for leaving the EU in some form or other rather than remaining, 46% vs 34%. Therefore I feel MPs should vote with the conscience and not with their party political heads on. Then lets have a GE and get a democratically elected PM in charge, whoever that may be? Who knows, Corbyn may even get in by some miracle and if that happens he can then choose to rip up Johnson's deal and go back to the people and the EU!? But I think it would be a brave or foolish person who would do that without seeing where this takes us first of all, especially as the majority of the electorate appear to be completely fed up with those in Westminster as it is?

 

[Len Rum]

I don't disagree with a lot of that. Whoever has blinked first, I'm not arsed about really - I just think it's for the best that we get out with a deal and it gets done sooner rather than later because this can't drag on forever and even a perceived bad deal is better than No Deal. But don't tell Theresa May that.

The last bit of your post sums up Brexit perfectly - '"even a ...bad deal is better than No Deal. But don't tell Theresa May that.".
The Tory mantra that was repeated again and again usually without any challenge from the media.
And yet here we are- the lie exposed for what it always was.

 

[Ban-jani]

Johnson’s biggest achievement here isn’t the deal, that was on offer to May in 2016, it’s convincing the many delusionals it’s some sort of an achievement or that he’s done the impossible.

Literally anyone off this board could have negotiated this deal, all he needed to say is “so that 2016 offer you made to my predecessor, can I have that please?... Okay great, I’ll send my team round to finalise”.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

“We would be damaging the fabric of the Union with regulatory checks and even customs controls between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, on top of those extra regulatory checks down the Irish Sea that are already envisaged in the withdrawal agreement," Johnson told the DUP party conference in November 2018. He concluded by saying 'No British govt could or should sign up to this agreement.” The bloke is a fucking snake and those being sucked in by his lies after lies are just not very bright at all. Is anyone actually thick enough to believe the clown has come up with a deal that is in the countries best interests and not for his own political gain????

Me mate, I'm thick as mince sadly, but viewed next to revoke or no Deal I think BJ has done good. Some people who are possibly nearly as stupid as me let their hatred of the Pm cloud their objectivity.

 

[robbieh]

On the basis that this is better than no deal, and it seems to have the backing of the majority of Leave voters, it seems a compromise of sorts. Add to that how tired everyone is and I think the commons will vote for it.

 

[mcfc1632]

But not better than the deal May could have had two years ago.

Assuredly, nor as good as could have been negotiated in 2016 onwards.

Just a lot better than any deal with an unfettered backstop in it. Robbins and May proper fucked up.

I just appreciate Johnson's starting point - and I am surprised people cannot be more genuine about that - irrespective of Remain or Leave

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

I think jeremy corbyn deserves credit for describing the revised deal as unacceptable at 10:53 yesterday - a full 15 minutes before it had been released.

 

[Gabriel]

Boredom and frustration with the situation should not be reasons for rushing through a deal that looks set to hasten the break up of the United Kingdom. People in Northern Ireland and Gibraltar are going to be put in a position where their stability within the Union is no longer guaranteed, but that doesn't seem to hold much sway with people who only want to celebrate some kind of Pyrrhic victory and move on to something more interesting. If those people don't matter now, then there can be little point complaining about losing other people later.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Assuredly, nor as good as could have been negotiated in 2016 onwards.

Just a lot better than any deal with an unfettered backstop on it.

I just appreciate Johnson's starting point - and I am surprised people cannot be more genuine about that - irrespective of Remain or Leave

Its because their hatred of Johnson and desire to remain trumps any objectivity. It's the same folk who sought to hamstring his negotiating position and take no deal off the rails that seem most upset about him coming back with a shit deal. I honestly think in their tiny minds they thought he'd resign, we'd revoke and all live happily ever after!

 

[Rascal]

Speaking of referendums, McDonnell is on Radio 4 right now saying Johnson's deal should be put to a public vote and pitched against Remain

McDonnell is wrong imo

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Boredom and frustration with the situation should not be reasons for rushing through a deal that looks set to hasten the break up of the United Kingdom. People in Northern Ireland and Gibraltar are going to be put in a position where their stability within the Union is no longer guaranteed, but that doesn't seem to hold much sway with people who only want to celebrate some kind of Pyrrhic victory and move on to something more interesting. If those people don't matter now, then there can be little point complaining about losing other people later.

Agree with you, but the boredom and frustration of the population is hardly the fault of Boris. Look to those who have sought to stall, delay or obstruct the brexit process if you want to hang that on someone.

 

[George Hannah]

McDonnell is wrong imo

He also just said on Skynews 'even better let us negiotiate a proper Labour deal after we've won the GE and put that to the people in another referendum' the desperation is astonishing - what do they think about the intelligence of the British electorate?

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

I think jeremy corbyn deserves credit for describing the revised deal as unacceptable at 10:53 yesterday - a full 15 minutes before it had been released.

We were already onto the contents ..... we knew they day before that they had gutted workers / environmental rights out of the WA .... (Its known as 'the level playing field') which means that getting anything like a FTA has no chance ..


Looks like we're being sold to the Yanks

 

[meltonblue]

Its because their hatred of Johnson and desire to remain trumps any objectivity. It's the same folk who sought to hamstring his negotiating position and take no deal off the rails that seem most upset about him coming vack with a shit deal. I honestly think in their tiny minds they thought he'd resign, we'd revoke and all live happily ever after!

Your first statement there works both ways though, there is very little objectivity from anyone in the debate (and why you end up with not only staunch remainers going to directly wanting to revoke but also a big increase in leave voters whose actual preferred option was no deal).

There will be plenty of people that will perceive this as being a harder brexit than they are willing to accept and that is a completely legitimate viewpoint. Likewise there will be unionists that, if they weren't concerned, would be even more worrying.

I do think this might get over the line on Saturday though, the margins are going to be very tight either way.

 

[TheBlueDune]

McDonnell is wrong imo

The "sick and tired of the whole brexit fiasco" groupies will vote for anything that takes it away if it came to any confirmatory vote.

Fundamental flaw in referendum in a democratic society is that we are used to having a second go - don't like the government? That's ok because we can vote them out next election. Don't like the referendum result? Tough, you had your choice and we got a decision.

 

[Rascal]

Its because their hatred of Johnson and desire to remain trumps any objectivity. It's the same folk who sought to hamstring his negotiating position and take no deal off the rails that seem most upset about him coming back with a shit deal. I honestly think in their tiny minds they thought he'd resign, we'd revoke and all live happily ever after!

A sweeping generality, I despise Johnson, Farage even more, I have always considered remain be a poor option.

 

[Ric]

I checked last night and it was neck and neck. Odds of 5/6 for both

Slight drift towards the deal being approved now. 8/11 for the deal to pass, evens for it to be rejected.

I suspect it'll pass by the slimmest of margins.

 

[BobKowalski]

The country surely cant go on an on like this, I just hope this deal goes through and we can all move on from this stalemate and deal with other pressing issues such as knife crime, homelessness, and health care etc. No one knows for certain what is round the corner for the economy, but the recent polling clearly shows there is still more support for leaving the EU in some form or other rather than remaining, 46% vs 34%. Therefore I feel MPs should vote with the conscience and not with their party political heads on. Then lets have a GE and get a democratically elected PM in charge, whoever that may be? Who knows, Corbyn may even get in by some miracle and if that happens he can then choose to rip up Johnson's deal and go back to the people and the EU!? But I think it would be a brave or foolish person who would do that without seeing where this takes us first of all, especially as the majority of the electorate appear to be completely fed up with those in Westminster as it is?

We don’t move on. All we do is move into the second phase and an automatic 14 month transition period where nothing changes but we enter into a fresh round of negotiations which will be largely taken up with working out how these new arrangements in NI will apply, the administration of these new arrangements and how it effects firms and trading between NI and GB. For example a NI firm will have full access to the GB market but a Scottish firm selling into NI will be potentially subject to tariffs so the next 14 months will be spent ironing out these kinks and to iron out these kinks will require a close alignment to EU rules, regs and standards etc for us all otherwise NI becomes even more detached from our Union and that will trigger protest from Unionists in NI.

But if we are not seeking to diverge what is the purpose of Brexit will be the the Brexiteers argument so again we will have various factions, interests and countries in our Union fighting their corner and the political divisions will widen because as we have seen with the second ‘deal’ with the EU someone has to get shat on for a deal to happen and this week it was the DUP’s turn.

So again with a 14 month time limit we have a self imposed deadline in which to sort out our future relationship and the new arrangements in NI which isn’t happening as the last three years will tell you and we are back to the do we take up the extension options and continue being de facto EU members or do we no deal after all except this time we have committed to these new arrangements in NI and will break the Withdrawal Treaty Agreement and leave NI in the lurch but this time we will have the Nationalist community pissed at us having spent 14 months pissing off the hardcore Unionist community and makes our commitment to letting NI ‘decide its future’ looking a bit hollow.

For people who think the temporary backstop was a ‘trap’ then how do you figure permanent arrangements for one country in our Union is going to feel like?