Another new Brexit thread

[BobKowalski]

To be fair this is a bit of headline shock that is often deployed by the media.

The incoming Trade Negotiator at the EU said the below-

We were confident we could negotiate the withdrawal deal and a trade deal in the two year A50 period. EU were confident they could do a deal with Canada in a ‘few years’. Everyone understates the time it takes but to be fair if we roll over and sign up to pretty much what we have now then theoretically it shouldn’t take much time.

Except the avowed point of the Govts position and indeed Brexit is not to be aligned so the parameters of the negotiations will not be to simply ‘roll over and accept’ and the EU and the respective Govts will be doing a line by line check on anything that is not aligned to ensure there is no downside for them and non EU Govts will also be looking at quota impacts, rules of origin and how that fits in with current deals or arrangements that they have with the EU.

The other issue is no one has ever done a deal where the objective of the parties involved is to do less trade and raise trade barriers because logically that is what the objective of Brexit is otherwise there is no point to Brexit. To trade more closely you have to remove the legal and political barriers to trade which also means less sovereignty and that, we are told, is the point of Brexit. To raise barriers and reclaim sovereignty. And then you have dual custom protocols in NI to figure out and how that works with our own internal market and the EU internal market and how committments made in the WA for NI intersect with U.K. companies outside of NI.

We may end up with a deal that mirrors our current arrangements but the logic of Brexit and the complexity of NI will mean there will be a political battle every step of the way to get to this end state.

The first flashpoint will likely be fish. We export what we catch and import what we eat. How do we maintain this arrangement and ‘get sovereignty of our waters back’? This battle alone will likely use up most of 2020 before we even get to the thousand and one other issues. It is inevitably going to be a long, bruising and uncertain few years ahead for us.

 

[Ban-jani]

They have to protect their interests and the agreements they have with other trading nations ...... they are NOT going to give us a deal better than those they already have in place. They are NOT going to give us a deal where they have the capability and capacity to manufacture / produce themselves.

The UK pulling out of the Eu gives them the opportunity to solve some problem unemployment areas. Which they will grab with both hands ....

The deal won’t be as economically viable as it is now, of course not, but it paves the way for a decent trade agreement.

 

[meltonblue]

The EU want a deal, over no deal.

They’re not going to cut their nose to spite their face.

They do, but they want to protect the integrity of the single market over anything else. No deal isn't the worst scenario for them, putting that at risk is.

 

[Ban-jani]

They do, but they want to protect the integrity of the single market over anything else. No deal isn't the worst scenario for them, putting that at risk is.

Of course it isn’t but no deal is way down on the list for them.

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

Define ‘Canada plus’, to be precise define ‘plus’.

Farridge just announced its Canada ++ but without the level playing field (alignment) ... trying to say that we'll get a great deal but wont have to conform to any standards or rules.



I cant breathe..... sooooo funny


Best he not give up the day job tho as circuses aren't recruiting at the mo.

 

[BobKowalski]

The EU want a deal, over no deal.

They’re not going to cut their nose to spite their face.

Yes they will. Political considerations will always trump business considerations. It’s why Johnson folded after that infamous Merkel telephone call. It’s when we finally realised that the EU would not throw Ireland under a bus at the last minute to cut a deal and that the solution lay in Dublin. If Dublin okayed a deal then so would the EU. That was when Johnson acted fast and proved a better negotiator than May and cut a deal with Dublin that moved the WA forward.

We genuinely underestimate how much the political aspect of the EU matter to the E27 Govts. Trade, sovereignty and politics. It’s all one package.

 

[meltonblue]

Of course it isn’t but no deal is way down on the list for them.

Absolutely, I'm just saying why this next stage is going to be very difficult.

 

[Ban-jani]

Of course they want a deal.

But thèy are not going to put the pillars of the EU at risk to satisfy the UK.

Either the UK will fall in line with the EU which is politically unacceptable to the Tory party or we will diverge meaning the FTA becomes way more complicated.

There is not the time to negotiate a complicated FTA and so you are betting on the UK closely aligning with the EU. I just don't see this happening as it would make the whole thing a pointless exercise.

It’s in both party’s interests and there is an option to extend if things don’t go well in the first 6 months.

 

[Ban-jani]

Yes they will. Political considerations will always trump business considerations. It’s why Johnson folded after that infamous Merkel telephone call. It’s when we finally realised that the EU would not throw Ireland under a bus at the last minute to cut a deal and that the solution lay in Dublin. If Dublin okayed a deal then so would the EU. That was when Johnson acted fast and proved a better negotiator than May and cut a deal with Dublin that moved the WA forward.

We genuinely underestimate how much the political aspect of the EU matter to the E27 Govts. Trade, sovereignty and politics. It’s all one package.

No they will not.

They won’t compromise the integrity of the Single Market and Customs Union but they once those are protected it will be all systems go for a FTA.

 

[blueparrot]

It’s in both party’s interests and there is an option to extend if things don’t go well in the first 6 months.

There is but will Johnson be in a position to take it, if he he gets any majority don't think it will be by much and it is going to depend on hardliners in the ERG backing him.

 

[BobKowalski]

Farridge just announced its Canada ++ but without the level playing field (alignment) ... trying to say that we'll get a great deal but wont have to conform to any standards or rules.



I cant breathe..... sooooo funny


Best he not give up the day job tho as circuses aren't recruiting at the mo.

They are playing the old hits from the 2016 referendum. It’s funny and incredibly tedious at the same time. Think I’ll sit out the next few years :)

 

[dave_blue12]

It’s in both party’s interests and there is an option to extend if things don’t go well in the first 6 months.

Which Johnson has said will not happen. Now I know the man cannot be trusted but on this I think he means it. He has to mean to control his party as it lurches further to the right.

I get that you disagree but for the reasons I have posted no deal, is in my opinion, the most likely outcome.

 

[BobKowalski]

No they will not.

They won’t compromise the integrity of the Single Market and Customs Union but they once those are protected it will be all systems go for a FTA.

Define FTA. What are our objectives? Key interests? Red lines? What are we prepared to concede to secure our objectives?

This will not get done in 11 months. NI protocols alone are untested waters. Govt can’t even agree how they will work in theory let alone practice. Both major parties are looking at increased spending plans so how do we grow the economy at a rate that supports those plans whilst mired in complex negotiations that will create uncertainty?

The WA was only three items, took up most, if not all, of our political bandwidth and nearly three years on we still haven’t concluded it. The future trade deal will be a lot more complex irrespective of how it turns out and it will be an all consuming process and it will be the focus of increasing tension within our own Union.

 

[Ban-jani]

There is but will Johnson be in a position to take it, if he he gets any majority don't think it will be by much and it is going to depend on hardliners in the ERG backing him.

He’s purposely had the WA agreed by all of the MPs in the party.

 

[Ban-jani]

Which Johnson has said will not happen. Now I know the man cannot be trusted but on this I think he means it. He has to mean to control his party as it lurches further to the right.

I get that you disagree but for the reasons I have posted no deal, is in my opinion, the most likely outcome.

He’s negotiating, that’s why he’s said that.

 

[Ban-jani]

Define FTA. What are our objectives? Key interests? Red lines? What are we prepared to concede to secure our objectives?

This will not get done in 11 months. NI protocols alone are untested waters. Govt can’t even agree how they will work in theory let alone practice. Both major parties are looking at increased spending plans so how do we grow the economy at a rate that supports those plans whilst mired in complex negotiations that will create uncertainty?

The WA was only three items, took up most, if not all, of our political bandwidth and nearly three years on we still haven’t concluded it. The future trade deal will be a lot more complex irrespective of how it turns out and it will be an all consuming process and it will be the focus of increasing tension within our own Union.

I’m sorry, have you mistaken me for Boris Johnson?

 

[dave_blue12]

He’s negotiating, that’s why he’s said that.

Okey dokey.

Time will tell.

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

No they will not.

They won’t compromise the integrity of the Single Market and Customs Union but they once those are protected it will be all systems go for a FTA.

But the WA doesn't give them security / integrity of a Single Market and Customs Union ... and our refusal to sign up to a level playing field means that we probably wont even get invited to the party let alone sit at the top table.

There will be a FTA maybe in Walnuts

 

[blueparrot]

He’s purposely had the WA agreed by all of the MPs in the party.

The WA yes, but when he runs out of time in the FTA negotiations , will he get them to agree an extension or will they force no deal on him.

 

[blueparrot]

But the WA doesn't give them security / integrity of a Single Market and Customs Union ... and our refusal to sign up to a level playing field means that we probably wont even get invited to the party let alone sit at the top table.

There will be a FTA maybe in Walnuts

Doubt it aren't France a big walnut producer.