Another new Brexit thread

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Enjoy your hard-on.

It's a reality and nothing to do with erections.

I'm 49 and never have I seen a campaign or election in which the losers had to be taken care of or considered with compromises in policy, especially with a majority gained.

Along with hard/soft it's a construct from those needing to get their way despite not winning the vote.

Campaign to rejoin and win it is my best advice to those who want us to be members of the EU.
 
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Ok,wasn’t sure if you were questioning whether Cameron’s decision was a foolish one (although I thought it unlikely!)

Because if Remain had won (imo) it is inconceivable that it would have been by anything other than a small margin. I also believe that part of the associated narrative would have been a significant number of Leavers who refused to engage with a second referendum (and more dangerously, with the democratic process going forward). This turn of events would have cause significant social unrest and quite possibly disorder in the short term and would have rendered roughly half the population (who care) to feel disenfranchised to an egregiously unhealthy extent.

Moreover (and hence the word panacea) it would not have made the issue of our relationship with the EU go away. It would have meant our EU elections being dominated by anti-EU parties being sent to Brussels to behave (at best) in a disruptive and unhelpful way. It would have meant a huge chunk of the population feeling that the internal democratic process in this country is irredeemably flawed and furthermore the issue of the EU would have continued to dominate our politics for years in a way that would be toxic, suffocating and crucially, more extensive than if we lance the boil and follow through with the outcome of the vote.

All this would also be set against the backdrop of a damaged and dysfunctional relationship with the EU at national level, because of (inter alia) the foregoing.

Perhaps a big margin to remain would have significantly militated against all that, but I believe this was too unlikely an outcome to be worth taking the risk.

I believe we’ve simply got to accept the outcome with a degree of fortitude (for the reasons I’ve outlined), try to make it work, and deal with the consequences if we don’t, included in which has to be the option to rejoin after a period of time has passed. This may well entail losing the pound, but again, this is a price that those who want(ed) to leave will have to endure, if that is the will of the people.

Don’t believe in karma per se, but this whole process has been utterly malign and destructive from start to finish, but I believe that the genie is out of the bottle and following the outcome of the referendum is the least worst option available to the nation in the circumstances; not least because 52% didn’t vote to leave in a vacuum (in spite of all the flaws attached to the referendum) irrespective of the arrogant assumption of some Remainers that an overwhelming number of them did.

Therefore, for better or worse, I arrived at the conclusion that leaving is our destiny and any attempt to indefinitely postpone or undermine that, even by means of a second referendum, would have created far more problems for our society than it solved.

We are where we are, I’m afraid.
Thanks mate. I can’t fault your logic given that it is pretty clear now that a second referendum would have been won or lost by relatively small margins. It’s impossible to say yet what the least bad option will be as I still think it’s entirely possible that we will see a no deal Brexit at the end of the year and the break up of the U.K. within three. It’s very early days yet. Who can guess what the populace will think and feel about the next three years, what the economy and our social services will be like at the end of it. Let’s hope for a positive outcome because that is the one thing that could heal the deep and open wounds that exist today.
 
I can see how you would come to that erroneous conclusion from my comment. I see it as two separate things. I have posted often about Swinson and Corbyns 'criminal' culpability in not working together. The fact that they clearly both had egos which precluded that necessary and sensible step betrayed Remain voters completely and inevitably lead to attempts to organise Remain voters down the tactical voting path. There were numerous organisations that launched websites where you just entered your postcode and up popped a recommendation as to who to vote for to avoid splitting the Remain vote. It was expected that if voters followed these recommendations then up to 70 additional seats could be won by the relative 'remain' parties. In reality hardly any were and votes were indeed split. Combined with Labours abject performance the Tory majority was delivered. This was the failure I was referring to. Hope that clarifies.
Yes - indeed - we have generally the same point of view - although with some slightly different takes and I would take it a step further.

1. We seem to agree that from this point onwards the outcome that is achieved will be entirely down to the performance of the Tory government in negotiations - and, at least as importantly, the quality of their portfolio, programme and project management arrangements.

2. My strong view is that the UK starts from a position that is much worse than it was in June 2016 due to a) the incompetence of May/ Robbins and b) the self-serving machinations of the main opposition parties. We may or may not agree on none, some or all of that.

3. The clear opportunity for the main opposition parties in the Autumn / Winter of 2019 was to force a 2nd referendum before going for a GE. Therefore it is a simple fact that there was a chance not taken to put a 2nd referendum to the electorate and perhaps stop Brexit from happening - that chance will not come again. The simplest way for that to have happened would have been for Corbyn to agree to another leader temporarily and for a fixed period of time, fronting the Labour Party in a Unity Government to hold the referendum and then hold a GE - if he did that the rest would have followed. I would hope that we mainly agree on that.

4. Agreeing to the GE was directly playing into the Tory and Leave supporters hands - at the time we were desperate for the opportunity - in fact it felt like a 'last throw of the dice' to get Brexit achieved. I for one expected the opposition parties to refuse the call for a GE and indulged themselves in more months of fun dragging Johnson's arse through amendment after amendment. You have to question the party and individual specific reasons why the parties opted for the GE rather than a 2nd referendum.

As it turns out - 12th December happened and the rest will now be history.

5. This lack of working together carried on into the run up to the GE and this is the area where we have slightly different views - or slightly different interpretations because Tactical Voting could have been so better managed and then would not I suggest have been a failure.

Yes - I recognise that there were plenty of apps made available to help determine where to tactically vote to support Remain, but - in this world of long-standing party loyalty - what there was not was direction from the leader of the Labour Party. There are a lot of dyed in the wool loyal voters and for a lot of Labour supporters it would have taken direction from Labour to tactical vote.

For me a clever play for Corbyn would have do have 'done a Farage' and work with the other parties to agree to stand down - for this election only - Labour candidates where that was sensible to support tactical voting and to major on the message that bringing down the Conservatives government / Stopping austerity etc. etc. was on this occasion the greatest priority of all.

That would have given the 'anti-Tory and ante-Brexit' voters the focus they needed. Johnson had a simple message - "Get Brexit done" - "stop the Tories' could have been equally powerful'.

Without such an approach and in going for a Labour majority, Corbyn put all the eggs in one (as it turned out a Leaver) basket and the result on the 12th was unequivocal. Had he instead worked with the other parties then a potential (probable?) outcome would have been an hung parliament with the Tories unable to form a government because all the other parties had united against them and Corbyn then being invited to form a coalition government.

Another possible approach for Corbyn would have been to declare this election to be a Brexit election with another election to follow after the Brexit issue had been settled. I say this because, equally there are a lot of pro-Remain Tory voters that would not tactically vote without the clear instruction that their vote would only be temporarily 'lent' with a GE to follow the Labour held referendum.

I think that we can agree parts of these 'hypothetical opportunities' - that Corbyn denied. At least I think that we can agree that the path he chose was not the best?

So I have and will continue to argue that should we end up in a future No-Deal outcome then history should note these circumstances and Corbyn will shoulder a significant level of responsibility.

Not because of what happens from now - that is down to the Tories

But because he indeed had the chance to stop the opportunity for a Brexit GE being held in December 2019 - and he did not take it.
 
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Yes - indeed - we have generally the same point of view - although with some slightly different takes and I would take it a step further.

1. We seem to agree that from this point onwards the outcome that is achieved will be entirely down to the performance of the Tory government in negotiations - and, at least as importantly, the quality of their portfolio, programme and project management arrangements.

2. My strong view is that the UK starts from a position that is much worse than it was in June 2016 due to a) the incompetence of May/ Robbins and b) the self-serving machinations of the main opposition parties. We may or may not agree on none, some or all of that.

3. The clear opportunity for the main opposition parties in the Autumn / Winter of 2019 was to force a 2nd referendum before going for a GE. Therefore it is a simple fact that there was a chance not taken to put a 2nd referendum to the electorate and perhaps stop Brexit from happening - that chance will not come again. The simplest way for that to happen would have been for Corbyn to agree to another leader to front the Labour Party in a Unity Government - if he did that the rest would have followed. I would hope that we mainly agree on that.

4. Agreeing to the GE was directly playing into the Tory and Leave supporters hands - at the time we were desperate for the opportunity - in fact it felt like a 'last throw of the dice' to get Brexit achieved - but I for one expected the opposition parties to refuse the call for a GE and just have more months of fun dragging Johnson's arse through amendment after amendment. You have to question the party specific reasons why the parties opted for the GE rather than a 2nd referendum.

As it turns out - 12th December happened and the rest will now be history.

5. This lack of working together carried on into the run up to the GE and this is the area where we have slightly different views - or slightly different interpretations. Yes - I recognise that there were plenty of apps made available to help determine where to tactical vote to support Remain, but in this world of long-standing party loyalty - but what there was not was direction from the leader of the Labour Party. For me a clever play for Corbyn would have do have 'done a Farage' and work with the other parties to agree to stand down - for this election only - Labour candidates where that was sensible to support tactical voting and to major on the message that bringing down the Conservatives government / Stopping austerity etc. etc. was on this occasion the greatest priority of all.

That would have given the 'anti-Tory and ante-Brexit' voters the focus they needed. Johnson had a simple message - "Get Brexit done" - "stop the Tories' could have been equally powerful'.

Without such an approach and in going for a Labour majority Corbyn put all the eggs in one (as it turned out a Leaver) basket and the result on the 12th was unequivocal. Had he instead worked with the other parties then a potential (probable?) outcome would have been an hung parliament with the Tories unable to forma a government because all the other parties had united against them and Corbyn then being invited to form a coalition government.

I think that we can agree parts of this 'hypothetical opportunity' - that Corbyn denied.

So I have and will continue to argue that should we end up in a future No-Deal outcome then history should note these circumstances and Corbyn will shoulder a significant level of responsibility.

Not because of what happens from now - that is down to the Tories

But because he indeed had the chance to stop the opportunity for a Brexit GE being held in December 2019 - and he did not take it.
Think that captures it very well. The only thing I would add it is obvious that Corbyn was unelectable (from the polls before hand and from the result itself) and turned many Labour supporters, both leave and remain towards other parties.
 
Ok,wasn’t sure if you were questioning whether Cameron’s decision was a foolish one (although I thought it unlikely!)

Because if Remain had won (imo) it is inconceivable that it would have been by anything other than a small margin. I also believe that part of the associated narrative would have been a significant number of Leavers who refused to engage with a second referendum (and more dangerously, with the democratic process going forward). This turn of events would have cause significant social unrest and quite possibly disorder in the short term and would have rendered roughly half the population (who care) to feel disenfranchised to an egregiously unhealthy extent.

Moreover (and hence the word panacea) it would not have made the issue of our relationship with the EU go away. It would have meant our EU elections being dominated by anti-EU parties being sent to Brussels to behave (at best) in a disruptive and unhelpful way. It would have meant a huge chunk of the population feeling that the internal democratic process in this country is irredeemably flawed and furthermore the issue of the EU would have continued to dominate our politics for years in a way that would be toxic, suffocating and crucially, more extensive than if we lance the boil and follow through with the outcome of the vote.

All this would also be set against the backdrop of a damaged and dysfunctional relationship with the EU at national level, because of (inter alia) the foregoing.

Perhaps a big margin to remain would have significantly militated against all that, but I believe this was too unlikely an outcome to be worth taking the risk.

I believe we’ve simply got to accept the outcome with a degree of fortitude (for the reasons I’ve outlined), try to make it work, and deal with the consequences if we don’t, included in which has to be the option to rejoin after a period of time has passed. This may well entail losing the pound, but again, this is a price that those who want(ed) to leave will have to endure, if that is the will of the people.

Don’t believe in karma per se, but this whole process has been utterly malign and destructive from start to finish, but I believe that the genie is out of the bottle and following the outcome of the referendum is the least worst option available to the nation in the circumstances; not least because 52% didn’t vote to leave in a vacuum (in spite of all the flaws attached to the referendum) irrespective of the arrogant assumption of some Remainers that an overwhelming number of them did.

Therefore, for better or worse, I arrived at the conclusion that leaving is our destiny and any attempt to indefinitely postpone or undermine that, even by means of a second referendum, would have created far more problems for our society than it solved.

We are where we are, I’m afraid.

Brilliant post.
Democracy denied is the end of democracy.
 
Big week in Parliament starting Tuesday and by Thursday the WAB will be passed.

Obviously now there is no chance of Remain amendments designed to delay / stop Brexit being passed so Johnson's revised WAB including a legal commitment not to extend the transition period will be part of the Bill, which will sail through.

It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall when the final agreement negotiations begin with the EU as now the UK side will have a clear idea of what it wants and it cannot be constrained by Remain MPs. The EU side have had it easy so far with May sending Europhille insider Olly Robbins to 'negotiate' whilst Parliament has been able to box the UK into a very weak position.
 
Big week in Parliament starting Tuesday and by Thursday the WAB will be passed.

Obviously now there is no chance of Remain amendments designed to delay / stop Brexit being passed so Johnson's revised WAB including a legal commitment not to extend the transition period will be part of the Bill, which will sail through.

It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall when the final agreement negotiations begin with the EU as now the UK side will have a clear idea of what it wants and it cannot be constrained by Remain MPs. The EU side have had it easy so far with May sending Europhille insider Olly Robbins to 'negotiate' whilst Parliament has been able to box the UK into a very weak position.

it will be a different negotiating dynamic and the German economy is in a different position now. I do hope we get a good deal for the uk and the eu.

from the eu side , it’s going to be interesting. I think there will be conflict in their negotiating position.

the 27 countries in the eu willwant a good free trading agreement, to minimise disruption to them and to continue trade frictionless in our market. However , I think the eu politicians will want to make it hard for the uk to make an example to others And their goals are different . As always it will be what Germany and France think which will determines how easy or hard it will be.

I
 
it will be a different negotiating dynamic and the German economy is in a different position now. I do hope we get a good deal for the uk and the eu.

from the eu side , it’s going to be interesting. I think there will be conflict in their negotiating position.

the 27 countries in the eu willwant a good free trading agreement, to minimise disruption to them and to continue trade frictionless in our market. However , I think the eu politicians will want to make it hard for the uk to make an example to others And their goals are different . As always it will be what Germany and France think which will determines how easy or hard it will be.

I

Good point about potential conflict within the EU negotiating position. The UK now has a unified government with a huge majority so we can have a set negotiating position. The EU would love to get the UK to agree a deal that is so bad no country would ever consider leaving in the future but I don't see them being able to do so.

i don't think a no deal final exit when the transition period ends is something Johnson wants but it is back in play. There are different needs and objectives on the EU side that clearly won't line up.

I would prefer a deal if it is in our interests but not one at any price.
 
Big week in Parliament starting Tuesday and by Thursday the WAB will be passed.

Obviously now there is no chance of Remain amendments designed to delay / stop Brexit being passed so Johnson's revised WAB including a legal commitment not to extend the transition period will be part of the Bill, which will sail through.

It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall when the final agreement negotiations begin with the EU as now the UK side will have a clear idea of what it wants and it cannot be constrained by Remain MPs. The EU side have had it easy so far with May sending Europhille insider Olly Robbins to 'negotiate' whilst Parliament has been able to box the UK into a very weak position.

it will be a different negotiating dynamic and the German economy is in a different position now. I do hope we get a good deal for the uk and the eu.

from the eu side , it’s going to be interesting. I think there will be conflict in their negotiating position.

the 27 countries in the eu willwant a good free trading agreement, to minimise disruption to them and to continue trade frictionless in our market. However , I think the eu politicians will want to make it hard for the uk to make an example to others And their goals are different . As always it will be what Germany and France think which will determines how easy or hard it will be.

I

We will be punished , simple as that. A shot across the bows to stop any other country from leaving. We are about to enter a very dark period in British history which will begin with an immediate call for independence by Scotland and followed by reunification of Ireland. Possibly the deepest longest recession ever experienced and further cuts due to austerity.
 
We will be punished , simple as that. A shot across the bows to stop any other country from leaving. We are about to enter a very dark period in British history which will begin with an immediate call for independence by Scotland and followed by reunification of Ireland. Possibly the deepest longest recession ever experienced and further cuts due to austerity.

You must live a very miserable life :)
 
We will be punished , simple as that. A shot across the bows to stop any other country from leaving. We are about to enter a very dark period in British history which will begin with an immediate call for independence by Scotland and followed by reunification of Ireland. Possibly the deepest longest recession ever experienced and further cuts due to austerity.
So, on balance, not good then?
 
Yes - indeed - we have generally the same point of view - although with some slightly different takes and I would take it a step further.

1. We seem to agree that from this point onwards the outcome that is achieved will be entirely down to the performance of the Tory government in negotiations - and, at least as importantly, the quality of their portfolio, programme and project management arrangements.

2. My strong view is that the UK starts from a position that is much worse than it was in June 2016 due to a) the incompetence of May/ Robbins and b) the self-serving machinations of the main opposition parties. We may or may not agree on none, some or all of that.

3. The clear opportunity for the main opposition parties in the Autumn / Winter of 2019 was to force a 2nd referendum before going for a GE. Therefore it is a simple fact that there was a chance not taken to put a 2nd referendum to the electorate and perhaps stop Brexit from happening - that chance will not come again. The simplest way for that to have happened would have been for Corbyn to agree to another leader temporarily and for a fixed period of time, fronting the Labour Party in a Unity Government to hold the referendum and then hold a GE - if he did that the rest would have followed. I would hope that we mainly agree on that.

4. Agreeing to the GE was directly playing into the Tory and Leave supporters hands - at the time we were desperate for the opportunity - in fact it felt like a 'last throw of the dice' to get Brexit achieved. I for one expected the opposition parties to refuse the call for a GE and indulged themselves in more months of fun dragging Johnson's arse through amendment after amendment. You have to question the party and individual specific reasons why the parties opted for the GE rather than a 2nd referendum.

As it turns out - 12th December happened and the rest will now be history.

5. This lack of working together carried on into the run up to the GE and this is the area where we have slightly different views - or slightly different interpretations because Tactical Voting could have been so better managed and then would not I suggest have been a failure.

Yes - I recognise that there were plenty of apps made available to help determine where to tactically vote to support Remain, but - in this world of long-standing party loyalty - what there was not was direction from the leader of the Labour Party. There are a lot of dyed in the wool loyal voters and for a lot of Labour supporters it would have taken direction from Labour to tactical vote.

For me a clever play for Corbyn would have do have 'done a Farage' and work with the other parties to agree to stand down - for this election only - Labour candidates where that was sensible to support tactical voting and to major on the message that bringing down the Conservatives government / Stopping austerity etc. etc. was on this occasion the greatest priority of all.

That would have given the 'anti-Tory and ante-Brexit' voters the focus they needed. Johnson had a simple message - "Get Brexit done" - "stop the Tories' could have been equally powerful'.

Without such an approach and in going for a Labour majority, Corbyn put all the eggs in one (as it turned out a Leaver) basket and the result on the 12th was unequivocal. Had he instead worked with the other parties then a potential (probable?) outcome would have been an hung parliament with the Tories unable to form a government because all the other parties had united against them and Corbyn then being invited to form a coalition government.

Another possible approach for Corbyn would have been to declare this election to be a Brexit election with another election to follow after the Brexit issue had been settled. I say this because, equally there are a lot of pro-Remain Tory voters that would not tactically vote without the clear instruction that their vote would only be temporarily 'lent' with a GE to follow the Labour held referendum.

I think that we can agree parts of these 'hypothetical opportunities' - that Corbyn denied. At least I think that we can agree that the path he chose was not the best?

So I have and will continue to argue that should we end up in a future No-Deal outcome then history should note these circumstances and Corbyn will shoulder a significant level of responsibility.

Not because of what happens from now - that is down to the Tories

But because he indeed had the chance to stop the opportunity for a Brexit GE being held in December 2019 - and he did not take it.
Just own it without any kind of qualification will you.
 
We will be punished , simple as that. A shot across the bows to stop any other country from leaving. We are about to enter a very dark period in British history which will begin with an immediate call for independence by Scotland and followed by reunification of Ireland. Possibly the deepest longest recession ever experienced and further cuts due to austerity.
Stop being so negative you just need to believe more and everything will be fine
 
We will be punished , simple as that. A shot across the bows to stop any other country from leaving. We are about to enter a very dark period in British history which will begin with an immediate call for independence by Scotland and followed by reunification of Ireland. Possibly the deepest longest recession ever experienced and further cuts due to austerity.
Exactly what form will this punishment take?
 
We will be punished , simple as that. A shot across the bows to stop any other country from leaving. We are about to enter a very dark period in British history which will begin with an immediate call for independence by Scotland and followed by reunification of Ireland. Possibly the deepest longest recession ever experienced and further cuts due to austerity.

Thank God people like you are nowhere near the reigns of power.
 
Big week in Parliament starting Tuesday and by Thursday the WAB will be passed.

Obviously now there is no chance of Remain amendments designed to delay / stop Brexit being passed so Johnson's revised WAB including a legal commitment not to extend the transition period will be part of the Bill, which will sail through.

It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall when the final agreement negotiations begin with the EU as now the UK side will have a clear idea of what it wants and it cannot be constrained by Remain MPs. The EU side have had it easy so far with May sending Europhille insider Olly Robbins to 'negotiate' whilst Parliament has been able to box the UK into a very weak position.
Time to start playing hardball with the EU and get a deal that suits the UK.
 
We will be punished , simple as that. A shot across the bows to stop any other country from leaving. We are about to enter a very dark period in British history which will begin with an immediate call for independence by Scotland and followed by reunification of Ireland. Possibly the deepest longest recession ever experienced and further cuts due to austerity.

Bet you 10p we dont get punished.

Bet you 10p Scotland doesnt gain independence even if they have another ref and that there will be no reunification of Ireland.

As for the recession will I've been waiting the last 3 years for the one that would start the day after we voted to leave the EU but i suppose one will come around at some point and I've little doubt you will blame us leaving the EU for it.

Austerity? Is that spending anything less that £500 Billion a year?
 
We will be punished , simple as that. A shot across the bows to stop any other country from leaving. We are about to enter a very dark period in British history which will begin with an immediate call for independence by Scotland and followed by reunification of Ireland. Possibly the deepest longest recession ever experienced and further cuts due to austerity.

I bet you are the type of person who still has a makeshift nuclear bunker , stocked with provisions in your garden, just in case.
 
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