Another new Brexit thread

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mcfc1632 said:
Strange that when I have recently pointed out that if there is a future No-Deal outcome that whilst the management of events from 12/12/19 will be all down to Johnson's team - a good deal of the blame that there is even the prospect that this could happen should be placed at the door of Corbyn and Swinson, particularly Corbyn IMO received no end of ridicule. This - even though, as you say - "Had they acted in the nation’s best interests (as they saw it) there would have been nothing BJ could have don’t about it." and Brexit could possibly/probably been stopped.
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LONDON (Reuters) - More than a thousand banks, asset managers, payments companies and insurers in the European Union plan to open offices in post-Brexit Britain so they can continue serving UK clients, regulatory consultancy Bovill said on Monday.

The new offices and staff will help mitigate the loss of business going the other way as the current unfettered two-way direct access between Britain and the EU comes to an end in December following a Brexit transition period.
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On to the putative trade deal.

Clearly the ideal outcome from a UK perspective would be full, tariff free, smooth access to all EEA markets for all our goods and services without the bother of having to worry about EU regulations we don't like and without having to allow FoM of labour, whilst being able to control imports to some extent in order to benefit domestic production.

Obviously we're not going to get that. Customs checks are going to slow things down to some extent, tariffs will be imposed on some exports that we can't negotiate into the deal. No idea how the services market will pan out but I'm sure the major companies will have contingency plans for whatever happens which may include the relocation of some operations outside the UK.

So what would be an equitable outcome? A reduction in EEA trade by 3%, 5% or 10%? I don't think anyone thinks it's going to increase as a result of Brexit.

This is supposed to counterbalanced by increased trade with the rest of the world, which realistically means the US, China, India and the rest of the commonwealth that's not already in a deal with the EU. The other major markets already have deals with the EU that we benefit from. We already have trade trade surpluses with the US and India so they are not going to do us any favours in a trade deal. For the US we would doubtless have to accept increased US access to health care and agriculture if we want more access to their markets. For India, the quid pro quo is likely to be freer movement of people to the UK.

What would be a good outcome by the end of the year?
 
west didsblue said:
On to the putative trade deal.

Clearly the ideal outcome from a UK perspective would be full, tariff free, smooth access to all EEA markets for all our goods and services without the bother of having to worry about EU regulations we don't like and without having to allow FoM of labour, whilst being able to control imports to some extent in order to benefit domestic production.

Obviously we're not going to get that. Customs checks are going to slow things down to some extent, tariffs will be imposed on some exports that we can't negotiate into the deal. No idea how the services market will pan out but I'm sure the major companies will have contingency plans for whatever happens which may include the relocation of some operations outside the UK.

So what would be an equitable outcome? A reduction in EEA trade by 3%, 5% or 10%? I don't think anyone thinks it's going to increase as a result of Brexit.

This is supposed to counterbalanced by increased trade with the rest of the world, which realistically means the US, China, India and the rest of the commonwealth that's not already in a deal with the EU. The other major markets already have deals with the EU that we benefit from. We already have trade trade surpluses with the US and India so they are not going to do us any favours in a trade deal. For the US we would doubtless have to accept increased US access to health care and agriculture if we want more access to their markets. For India, the quid pro quo is likely to be freer movement of people to the UK.

What would be a good outcome by the end of the year?
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Why would we rather trade freely with a flat market that is completely reliant on German growth whilst shutting down the chance of a deal with our biggest partner and the second largest economy in the world which is the US or beyond?

Every economic prediction that I have seen for Brexit rather bizarrely negates the benefits that such deals would bring. Funnily enough the political left are first to quote such economics but this is primarily because they hate the US.

EEA trade has been suffering for years and growth is so flat that our reliance on non-EU trade is accelerating. When the EU comes to negotiate the details of that non-EU trade for us, how do we benefit when they consider our competitors needs too?

I think the negotiation will be difficult but mostly because of politics and not the glaringly obvious common aim which is preservation. A UK trade deal will still be the greatest trade deal that the EU has ever achieved in its history.
 
west didsblue said:
On to the putative trade deal.

Clearly the ideal outcome from a UK perspective would be full, tariff free, smooth access to all EEA markets for all our goods and services without the bother of having to worry about EU regulations we don't like and without having to allow FoM of labour, whilst being able to control imports to some extent in order to benefit domestic production.

Obviously we're not going to get that. Customs checks are going to slow things down to some extent, tariffs will be imposed on some exports that we can't negotiate into the deal. No idea how the services market will pan out but I'm sure the major companies will have contingency plans for whatever happens which may include the relocation of some operations outside the UK.

So what would be an equitable outcome? A reduction in EEA trade by 3%, 5% or 10%? I don't think anyone thinks it's going to increase as a result of Brexit.

This is supposed to counterbalanced by increased trade with the rest of the world, which realistically means the US, China, India and the rest of the commonwealth that's not already in a deal with the EU. The other major markets already have deals with the EU that we benefit from. We already have trade trade surpluses with the US and India so they are not going to do us any favours in a trade deal. For the US we would doubtless have to accept increased US access to health care and agriculture if we want more access to their markets. For India, the quid pro quo is likely to be freer movement of people to the UK.

What would be a good outcome by the end of the year?
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Up to a thousand EU-based financial services companies are in the process of opening a UK office to continue to service their clients in this country.

A bit of positive news for once.
 
inbetween said:
Why would we rather trade freely with a flat market that is completely reliant on German growth whilst shutting down the chance of a deal with our biggest partner and the second largest economy in the world which is the US or beyond?

Every economic prediction that I have seen for Brexit rather bizarrely negates the benefits that such deals would bring. Funnily enough the political left are first to quote such economics but this is primarily because they hate the US.

EEA trade has been suffering for years and growth is so flat that our reliance on non-EU trade is accelerating. When the EU comes to negotiate the details of that non-EU trade for us, how do we benefit when they consider our competitors needs too?

I think the negotiation will be difficult but mostly because of politics and not the glaringly obvious common aim which is preservation. A UK trade deal will still be the greatest trade deal that the EU has ever achieved in its history.
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I don't think your first sentence is correct. Germany is the largest economy in the EU by some margin but it still only has 20% of the EU's GDP, rising to 24% when we leave. Our exports to the rest of the EEA are 5 times what we export to Germany even though Germany is our 2nd largest export market after the US. The EEA as a whole is our largest trading partner by far covering around 50% of our trade. Watering down trading arrangements with them is only going to be negative.
We are already in a great position regarding trade with the US. Our trade surplus is around £45 billion and the aim of any trade deal from a US point of view will be to redress this balance. It might help our exporters somewhat but we would have to open our markets to much more US imports which will largely be to the expense of domestic production, particularly in agriculture and pharma.
As for EEA trade being flat, I don't think that's strictly true either. It's cyclical and the current trend is fairly flat from a percentage of global trade point of view which means it's growing at roughly the same pace as the average of everywhere else.
 
Not long to go now chaps....not long.

tenor.gif
 
Ban-jani said:
Up to a thousand EU-based financial services companies are in the process of opening a UK office to continue to service their clients in this country.

A bit of positive news for once.
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Certainly is.

Let's hope it fully mitigates the business that's going in the other direction.
 
inbetween said:
Why would we rather trade freely with a flat market that is completely reliant on German growth whilst shutting down the chance of a deal with our biggest partner and the second largest economy in the world which is the US or beyond?

Every economic prediction that I have seen for Brexit rather bizarrely negates the benefits that such deals would bring. Funnily enough the political left are first to quote such economics but this is primarily because they hate the US.

EEA trade has been suffering for years and growth is so flat that our reliance on non-EU trade is accelerating. When the EU comes to negotiate the details of that non-EU trade for us, how do we benefit when they consider our competitors needs too?

I think the negotiation will be difficult but mostly because of politics and not the glaringly obvious common aim which is preservation. A UK trade deal will still be the greatest trade deal that the EU has ever achieved in its history.
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Because the US is very protectionist, there are inter State barriers and any deal is estimated to bring only marginal additional growth of 0.15% over the next decade. If you want some idea of how it works then check out the US/Australia trade deal which saw a decrease in Australian trade to US but the reverse in US to Australia in the immediate years. A report 10 years after the deal was first signed concluded that Australian trade with the RoW was depressed because of the deal and overall it would have been better not to have signed the deal.

Also trade deals are political. It is a mistake to assume it’s just about economics. Doing a trade deal with the US is a political objective. The economic benefits or otherwise are of a secondary consideration.
 
@Len Rum

You were not the only one with comprehension issues - I had to explain it several times to the hard of understanding - again in this post

mcfc1632 said:
I am being clear that the outcome of Brexit from this point in time is entirely down to Johnson........ But

How we got to where we are and the options that may now unfold has been shaped a lot my the actions of Remainers and Corbyn. We could be here at the start of 2020 with the softest of Brexits already a legally binding deal - simple facts and not disputable

I am simply stating the fact that if Corbyn had acted when he had the opportunity - several times - then there simply would not be the possibility of a 'genuine Brexit' let alone 'No-Deal'

I say well done to him - I am surprised that Remainers are not thoroughly pissed off with him.
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