Another new Brexit thread

[mcfc1632]

I wouldn’t go as far as saying it’s decent. Equivalence is ok but it is in the gift of the EU and can be rescinded as well as granted. It also means we will not be able to trade freely cross border if these moves prove necessary which ultimately means we will have created barriers to trade which will inhibit trade growth.

Essentially we are seeking to create a more complicated and costly infrastructure and interaction with the countries that surround us with duplication of functions, non recognition of qualifications and friction in goods. This is decent news for lawyers, custom agents and anyone else employed to navigate a more complex system and its attendant bureaucracy. On the other hand how likely this is in practice remains to be seen given the hostility of the devolved Govts, business sectors and the financial cost in doing all of this only to spend the next decade or so trying to negotiate away the very barriers we have created. Given our self imposed compressed timeframe to sort all this I guess we will find out in 6 to 8 months time which route we really intend to take.

From a negotiations POV - it is quite pleasing to see all these overt statements from EU sources.

It evidences their recognition that they are facing a genuine negotiation process and that they are establishing their realistic and fallback positions - rather that just having the utter dominance that Robbins was handing to them as a given.

You are right - the right specification of equivalence - from the EU POV will give the EU significant control. This is especially the case if they can establish the unilateral right to rescind and the ECJ as the arbitration body.

The UK - hopefully being led by professionals this time - should equally have their target positions and a plan to achieve a better outcome.

You post what the EU would like as if it was a given. That may have been true under May/Robbins - let's hope those days are gone.

Of course this is another example/area where all UK citizens should be hoping that the UK secure their target outcome and not be cheerleading the EU.

 

[Saddleworth2]

I would suggest that they would only make it so complicatedand difficult if:

a) they were utterly incompetent and/or fuckwits, or

b) they were Remainers going out of their way to desperately try and build a case for a otherwise pretty non-credible argument

I'm not sure thats right mate. A points based system does have to have controls wrapped round it. Take for instance the Scottish hospitality industry - particularly outside the major cities. Up until now, EU kids used to come over to Scotland for a year or two, to get some life experience knowing that they would be welcomed with open arms for restaurant/bar work. I have been in some places that have been almost all Spanish/Polish staff. Contrast that with 'new' arrangements whatever they may be, but will require an element of pre authorisation that doesn't exist just now. It will have an impact. These are not jobs that typically locals do. I can see it really hurting some businesses.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

I'm not sure thats right mate. A points based system does have to have controls wrapped round it. Take for instance the Scottish hospitality industry - particularly outside the major cities. Up until now, EU kids used to come over to Scotland for a year or two, to get some life experience knowing that they would be welcomed with open arms for restaurant/bar work. I have been in some places that have been almost all Spanish/Polish staff. Contrast that with 'new' arrangements whatever they may be, but will require an element of pre authorisation that doesn't exist just now. It will have an impact. These are not jobs that typically locals do. I can see it really hurting some businesses.

that is right and this does need some focus and an answer . I would suggest Short term visas ( say 6 months or a year) for people doing Mac jobs whilst travelling both for uk youngsters wanting to work in the eu and visa versa it is important.

It makes youngsters grow up to spend some time working living in another country for a period of time and you are right the service sector in the uk and the eu needs it

 

[mcfc1632]

So you don't know the details but you are ll for the system. I usually wait for details before supporting something......

Low margin business could struggle never mind the government cost to administrating all of this.

But we are indeed leaving and are not just going to carry on as if we were still members

I suggest that you and others need to recognise - even if you don't want to embrace - that things are going to change and need to be managed.

It would make for a less frustrating next few years for you

 

[bluethrunthru]

Have you actually read much on these exchanges or have you just selected a snippet that you thinks supports a doom-mongering claim even so it makes you look a bit desperate and out of touch?

which bit didn't Mnuchin say?

 

[Vic]

I'm not sure thats right mate. A points based system does have to have controls wrapped round it. Take for instance the Scottish hospitality industry - particularly outside the major cities. Up until now, EU kids used to come over to Scotland for a year or two, to get some life experience knowing that they would be welcomed with open arms for restaurant/bar work. I have been in some places that havebeen almost all Spanish/Polish staff. Contrast that with 'new' arrangements whatever they may be, but will require an element of pre authorisation that doesn't exist just now. It will have an impact. These are not jobs that typically locals do. I can see it really hurting some businesses.

The Trossachs Pret in particular.

 

[bluejon]

And there are more employed than ever before, why persist with this ridiculous assessment?
It's sounding like an almost demented, frantic attempt to paint fact as fiction mate, everyone knows now
that unemployment has fallen dramatically, but, if your interpretation soothes, well carry on.

Fuck me mate, you are quite special. You said the ONS figures only use employed/unemployed, I checked, they don't. They use three categories therefore confirming erm.... exactly what i'd said. And as for 'more people employed than ever', well yes. There's also more people than ever. But it's okay, everything's going to be great when brexit happens thanks to fucking geniuses like your good self.

 

[BobKowalski]

From a negotiations POV - it is quite pleasing to see all these overt statements from EU sources.

It evidences their recognition that they are facing a genuine negotiation process and that they are establishing their realistic and fallback positions - rather that just having the utter dominance that Robbins was handing to them as a given.

You are right - the right specification of equivalence - from the EU POV will give the EU significant control. This is especially the case if they can establish the unilateral right to rescind and the ECJ as the arbitration body.

The UK - hopefully being led by professionals this time - should equally have their target positions and a plan to achieve a better outcome.

You post what the EU would like as if it was a given. That may have been true under May/Robbins - let's hope those days are gone.

Of course this is another example/area where all UK citizens should be hoping that the UK secure their target outcome and not be cheerleading the EU.

There are overt statements from both sides albeit those by the Chancellor are now varying by the hour to the extent it seems either the UK has no strategy or if it has then the Chancellor is not privy to it.

Financial Services is the one area where U.K. has genuine leverage and the EU will I think strike a balanced deal as it is in their interests but the granting of equivalance will always come with a unilateral right to rescind and there will be demands placed by the EU on UK regulators as the price for equivalence and the ECJ will have arbitration sway. It’s their equivalence so it’s their rules. We of course do not have to seek equivalence but we will and truthfully I just don’t see either side rocking the boat too much on Financial Services.

If the EU dictate sequencing of negotiations then Fishing, Financial Services and zero tariffs on goods will be the prime EU targets. Zero tariffs will come at a price. Level playing field, environment, labour and state aid regs, climate etc. New NI protocols will be hanging over all of this as well. EU don’t want any weaselling out of what has been agreed in the WA.

Everything else simply won’t get done in the timeframe unless we just sign up to everything. Outside of that then it’s down to a basic deal on the key issues that matter to the EU or no deal in which case the WA applies and a ‘robust’ border in the Irish Sea and Frontex running NI/GB Customs at Belfast port. That will be fun :)

 

[Vic]

Obviously not Brexit related (nothing is) but on tonight's North West news, JLR laying off 500, Unilever likely to close Warrington's last soap works and Halton's bus company going bust.

 

[blueinsa]

Obviously not Brexit related (nothing is) but on tonight's North West news, JLR laying off 500, Unilever likely to close Warrington's last soap works and Halton's bus company going bust.

Morrisons just announced 7000 shop floor jobs to be created.

 

[blueparrot]

Morrisons just announced 7000 shop floor jobs to be created.

Well cutting 3000 full time jobs and replacing with 7000 hourly paid jobs. Not that I’d put it down to brexit but it isn’t great news.

 

[west didsblue]

There are overt statements from both sides albeit those by the Chancellor are now varying by the hour to the extent it seems either the UK has no strategy or if it has then the Chancellor is not privy to it.

Financial Services is the one area where U.K. has genuine leverage and the EU will I think strike a balanced deal as it is in their interests but the granting of equivalance will always come with a unilateral right to rescind and there will be demands placed by the EU on UK regulators as the price for equivalence and the ECJ will have arbitration sway. It’s their equivalence so it’s their rules. We of course do not have to seek equivalence but we will and truthfully I just don’t see either side rocking the boat too much on Financial Services.

If the EU dictate sequencing of negotiations then Fishing, Financial Services and zero tariffs on goods will be the prime EU targets. Zero tariffs will come at a price. Level playing field, environment, labour and state aid regs, climate etc. New NI protocols will be hanging over all of this as well. EU don’t want any weaselling out of what has been agreed in the WA.

Everything else simply won’t get done in the timeframe unless we just sign up to everything. Outside of that then it’s down to a basic deal on the key issues that matter to the EU or no deal in which case the WA applies and a ‘robust’ border in the Irish Sea and Frontex running NI/GB Customs at Belfast port. That will be fun :)

Apparently we've decided to use professional negotiators this time rather than amateurs like last time so the EU will obviously be running scared and will give us what we want ahead of schedule.

 

[Vic]

Morrisons just announced 7000 shop floor jobs to be created.

And the 3000 to be "let go" have to apply for their own jobs...

And in other news 57,000 retail jobs gone this year.

Your bid in the good news/bad news thread.

 

[blueinsa]

Well cutting 3000 full time jobs and replacing with 7000 hourly paid jobs. Not that I’d put it down to brexit but it isn’t great news.

No one is losing their job and all managers affected will have a job if they want so 7000 jobs is great news.

 

[Vic]

Apparently we've decided to use professional negotiators this time rather than amateurs like last time so the EU will obviously be running scared and will give us what we want ahead of schedule.

I expect their work experience was working for the EU.

 

[blueinsa]

And the 3000 to be "let go" have to apply for their own jobs...

And in other news 57,000 retail jobs gone this year.

Your bid in the good news/bad news thread.

Has leaving the EU killed the high street Vic or the internet?

Unemployment at record lows so whilst it's shit jobs going it seems most are finding pastures new.

 

[Metal Biker]

Well cutting 3000 full time jobs and replacing with 7000 hourly paid jobs. Not that I’d put it down to brexit but it isn’t great news.

Retailers rarely offer full time work positions anymore.

 

[blueparrot]

Retailers rarely offer full time work positions anymore.

Yes, and for some people that fits in with their life, but in general it’s not a great thing. I don’t know a great deal about them but I would guess there are families on these contracts that still need to rely on tax and child tax credits to make up their family incomes.

 

[Ban-jani]

Yes, and for some people that fits in with their life, but in general it’s not a great thing. I don’t know a great deal about them but I would guess there are families on these contracts that still need to rely on tax and child tax credits to make up their family incomes.

Absolutely but is that Brexit or not?

 

[blueparrot]

Absolutely but is that Brexit or not?

Not, I said that , but was just saying the Morrisons news wasn’t particularly good news 7000 of these jobs with 3000 full time jobs going.