Another new Brexit thread

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joe123 said:
Indeed. We're in a cul-de-sac of our own making, and there's literally no way out without giving something up. I was reading the other day, in order to sort out trade deals with countries that already have a deal with the EU, we need 'full cumulation and diagonal rules of origin'. And the only body that can grant us that is the EU - there's a lot of hot air about us being critical to the EU and it'll fold without us blah blah, but that is the key issue here. We're going to be over a barrel however it pans out. Just hoping that our ties with the EU means they lube up first, and being a taker ends up as pleasurable as possible.
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But...but.... just speak positively and something will turn up Mr Micawber
 
blueinsa said:
Perish the thought anyone accuse them of being fixated with wanting to keep a passport a certain colour?
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So many (and more) posts on the passport colour.

If there is one thing that comes across as more desperate from Remainers than trying to suggest that Leavers are so simple-minded that Brexit is all about Passport colour - it is repetitive regurgitation of that crap
 
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joe123 said:
Indeed. We're in a cul-de-sac of our own making, and there's literally no way out without giving something up. I was reading the other day, in order to sort out trade deals with countries that already have a deal with the EU, we need 'full cumulation and diagonal rules of origin'. And the only body that can grant us that is the EU - there's a lot of hot air about us being critical to the EU and it'll fold without us blah blah, but that is the key issue here. We're going to be over a barrel however it pans out. Just hoping that our ties with the EU means they lube up first, and being a taker ends up as pleasurable as possible.
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It is quite ironic that our new found freedoms outside the EU that the Leave supporters are so excited about will constrain our own national decision making to a much greater extent than if we had decided to remain. That is assuming we take the view that throwing away huge sectors of our economy to provide us with the freedom to do what we want isn't a price worth paying to be fully "independent". The relative freedom of choice we currently enjoy as EU members will be much more constrained after Brexit. Luckily for most of us we won't notice the difference as long as we, as a nation, toe the line.
 
west didsblue said:
Random post generator in full working order I see.
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Not at all. He is a leading survivalist but clearly doesn't see any opportunity for himself in the EU.

Which is a bit odd as there are supposed to be huge benefits for UK citizens to move to any of the 27 other member states. The fact is only a tiny proportion ever do so.
 
bluethrunthru said:
If you consider the US then - as long as Trump or Trump-type doctrine is there then its American First. Look at his actions with China because of a trade imbalance then ask yourself why - given that we export more to the US than we import - would Trump want to do anything except reverse that? Remember he see's himself as the deal maker - every deal made before he came into office he refers to as the worst deal in history and bad for the States - so there is no great deal for the UK there - just the deal he will allow us to have and that will be in America's favour. Trump see's it all in black and white as win or lose - and he see's himself as the ultimate winner.

Johnson is talking about us being outside the EU and getting a better deal with Japan than the one they have just signed with the EU. That deal forbids Japan offering anyone a better deal on anything than they deal they have with the EU - ARTICLE 8;17 of the Japan / EU deal. Johnson either knows that and is lying or is stupid and doesn't know that.

Its not talking the country down its understanding the potential harm coming our way because in dealing with the UK on its own or the EU as a 27 country bloc where is the incentive for Japan to offer us an awful lot?

All you are going to end up with is a change in colour on the passports.
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You are simply missing the basics though - IMO

There is merit in all that you say - but...….

The only answer that you and others seem to offer is that we should not be leaving the EU.

That is why I keep posting that you need to find a way of accepting that is happening - that is the undeniable basics.

Once that is understood and executed then the rest follows - and we are indeed Leaving so banging on about why we shouldn't is not going to get you anywhere, or, I suggest, help your peace of mind in any way.

Yes - I expect the deal with the US to be tough - although I expect Trump's ego to be a factor that can be exploited.

Bottom line is though that:

Understanding the basics = accepting that we are Leaving next week and all these matters have to then be professionally managed
 
Mëtal Bikër said:
But the League of Nations never "imposed" that we had the words "League of Nations" emblazed on the top, like we were owned by it.

Why did the EU insist our passports had "European Union" on them? We had a choice of colour, why not a choice in other aspects of the design? We never had to have "European Economic Community" on them when we joined the EEC. It was a trend, a worrying trend, the flag, the anthem, the Parliament, the currency, the "defence force", one that was continuing to encroach that showed no signs of abating, and we've nipped it in the bud right at it's beginnings.

The rest of Europe might fall under it's spell, but we're now free from it affecting us. Trade only.
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Spot on.
 
mcfc1632 said:
There are a couple of points in there that I think will be really interesting to observe over the coming weeks and months - and which will indicate just where the key negotiating areas are and what the fallback positions might be.

I do not for a moment fail to recognise that the EU are - on the face of it - in the strongest position and have much leverage to use. I just do not take it always as a given that the UK will have to/choose to comply - as they would of course done with the utter amateur Robbins running things.

Other noises coming out of the EU is a delay to the start of negotiations - a very different stance to 2016. I would expect this as they will be needing time (as will the UK) to properly prepare their strategy, approach and governance - again I see this as a good sign from a negotiating POV.

Strangely, you might think, I would not be greatly surprised at this point if the situation is as you say - ".....albeit those by the Chancellor are now varying by the hour to the extent it seems either the UK has no strategy or if it has then the Chancellor is not privy to it."

And you are right that the part of the EU's approach will be to seek to again dictate the sequencing - let us hope that we have learned from past incompetence and have a plan of how to address this challenge.

You are right to observe - although I would word it very differently that the "....EU don’t want any weaselling out of what has been agreed in the WA." The utterly ruinous unfettered backstop may have been removed, but there is much poison still in what remains largely the May/Robbins WA.

That is May's legacy - our starting position is worse now because of what needs to be unpicked from her WA than it was in 2016.

I have a similar view - but different take - on your last point: "....Outside of that then it’s down to a basic deal on the key issues that matter to the EU or no deal...."

You again word things reflecting your view that the UK will buckle to the all-powerful EU and of course your take is that any areas that will be agreed will be those prioritised by the EU and the UK will be dictated to. My own view is that there will be a late agreement on a deal to prevent a No-Deal outcome and that the deal will be in fact a number of key agreements and a framework, process and timetable to agree others - with the status quo continuing until each sector is agreed. I expect this to reflect (eventually) a genuine Canada++ but introduced incrementally in a way that ensures that neither party is seen to have won/lost but instead are seen to confirm and celebrate a close partnership.

The extent to which that your view or mine prevail will be dependent of course on the extent to which we have assessed and prepared to execute a walk-away option if it comes to that. This is needed because it has always been true that we will not see movement from the EU unless and until they face a viable walk-away option and the political will to use it.

Viability and political will have always been the key words. We have a situation now where the political will may be present, supported by the governance (large majority) to act - I hope that in secure rooms in Westminster a small group of people are plotting how to achieve viability.

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Aside from the ‘prepared to execute a walk away option’ I broadly agree.

Other caveat. Agreeing to a framework and process to allow time and space to negotiate all aspects of the future relationship makes sense but it requires us signing up to an extended status quo period across broad swathes of the economy which we have currently and consistently ruled out. We rule it out because the fear that drives the Govt is ‘being a rule taker with no say’ yet this is what Brexit means. Only three areas have the economic power to set global rules, standards etc US, EU and China. If you are in these groupings you are a rule maker. If you are outside you are a rule taker. Once we are outside the EU trying to negotiate comparable access back in then we face the issue that the closer the relationship we negotiate the more overt our position as a rule taker becomes. The one thing no amount of grandstanding, fine words or nationalist rhetoric can disguise is that the EU is an economic superpower and we are not.

The other concern is that the EU will formulate and agree a mandate with the E27. I see no sign of a mandate that involves our stakeholders - business sectors, regions or devolved Govts. Last week our priority was a trade deal with the US. Then the priority was the EU. Today it is Japan. Next week no doubt it will be Wakanda. Incidentally we still have no agreement on continuity deals with Japan or Canada so we can roll over the current EU deals. And deals we have rolled over are tariff only agreements with nothing on regulatory areas for services.

As for May’s deal and it’s ‘poison’ which we passed minus the ‘unfettered backstop’ well the price for that removal was the integrity of our Union. The EU have published the slides on how it will work. Brexit was sold as ‘independence’ and ‘taking back control’. Allowing the economic writ of the EU to operate in our own sovereign territory is neither independence nor taking back control. And the more we fight to ‘diverge’ and not be seen as overt rule takers the harder that internal custom border gets. Tough choices ahead and only 11 months in which to make them.

 
mcfc1632 said:
So many (an more) posts on the passport colour.

If there is one thing that comes across as more desperate from Remainers than trying to suggest that Leavers are so simple-minded that Brexit is all about Passport colour - it is repetitive regurgitation of that crap
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The return to the colour they were before though is symbolic of a desire, of many, for Britain to go back to some time pre-EEC/EU. It is like nothing good ever came of our membership and we are going to rise on the 1st of Feb and it will be like waking up from some bad dream. What no one knows is what the actual fuck things will be like because there is no vision for Britain from that day on.

I posted a question, disregarding subjective economic forecasts, is there a tangibly different way life might be when we are out that could offer some hope and encouragement. @hgblue, to their credit, suggested that they hoped we might then be in a position to make some radical changes to the farming policy that focussed more on animal welfare. What else do people hope for, or will campaign for, that could help me see where we are heading?
 
Mëtal Bikër said:
But the League of Nations never "imposed" that we had the words "League of Nations" emblazed on the top, like we were owned by it.

Why did the EU insist our passports had "European Union" on them? We had a choice of colour, why not a choice in other aspects of the design? We never had to have "European Economic Community" on them when we joined the EEC. It was a trend, a worrying trend, the flag, the anthem, the Parliament, the currency, the "defence force", one that was continuing to encroach that showed no signs of abating, and we've nipped it in the bud right at it's beginnings.

The rest of Europe might fall under it's spell, but we're now free from it affecting us. Trade only.
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They didn’t ‘impose’ anything and they had the words European Community on them from 1988. This was to support a common format and to act as proof of being allowed to live and work in any of the member states, thus not requiring a visa. This change was unanimously AGREED by the nine member states at the time. At the same time, the Conservative Government of the day, VOLUNTARILY changed the passport colour to burgundy.
Love the fact that we’re leaving the EU by all means, congratulations on your win, and I hope it brings you everything you hope, but surely you don’t need to keep making stuff up about escaping from under the EU jackboot of repression?
 
dave_blue12 said:
Brexit boys should read this. It's a hoot !

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/20...rything-you-need-to-know-about-johnson-s-trad
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Hopefully the government will just lube up and accept BRINO. It's the only thing that doesn't fuck us over completely. It could be dressed up as regulatory alignment for key sectors (without mentioning that it covers 95% of them), a UK/EU Customs agreement (that doesn't mention the word union but to all intents and purposes is one) and a Rules of Origin agreement to treat the UK and EU as one entity (to be lost in the small print).
They can then lie and tell the gullible how we've secured everything that the Brexiters hold dear. No doubt the right wing press will aid and abet them in this.
 
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