Another new Brexit thread

[mancity2012_eamo]

Dont be daft mate. If the English wanted a referendum and it was supported by English MPs, they could have a referendum tomorrow because of the number breakdown of MP's. That doesn't apply to the other countries.

Agreed.
But what we’re talking about is if English nationalist parties canvassed for a referendum.
The truth is the Tories and other mainstream parties would never go for it.
They would also be in the minority.
Considering there are no MPs of that persuasion in the Commons at the moment I think you are miles away from that happening.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Germany doesn’t control the EU. France is currently the big dog. The two countries alternate which is sweet of them.

Yes there will probably be a deal. If it has to be done in 11 months it will be basic but there is great incentive on both sides to do a deal. And unlike stage 1 both sides are now on the same page. Gone is our cake and eat it phase - same benefits with none of the obligations, frictionless trade blah, blah. We have given up on that and now all we want is an FTA which the EU is okay with and always has been. See if May had just accepted this in the first place we would be much further along, although in fairness I guess it was worth a punt to actually try and deliver the Leave campaign promises and keep our Union together. Bless.

So we will have friction on trade which then leaves the question of just how much friction and what do we do with all that regulatory stuff (chemicals, medicines etc) which the EU handle for us. Oh and how we implement and administer the new NI custom protocols.

Should be a doodle in 10 months. In other news Universal Credit will not be done until 2024, so that’s what 7 years after it was meant to be running smoothly? Still I’m sure it will all be just fine.

I think you will find that the person that pays the bills usually calls the shots. And that is Germany in the EUs instance.

 

[mcfc1632]

This is Brexit.
Tory Brexit.
This what they've done.
Forgive them Lord.

Len - genuine question

Just consider for a minute if Corbyn and McDonnell had clearly stated that they were in favour of exiting the EU and indeed it was essential to achieve the implementation of their manifesto.

And what if the position was that all polling indicated that such commitment in a GE would clearly see a Corbyn and McDonnell led socialist government in Downing St - could you have found yourself at some point supporting Brexit?

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

In your need to belittle the UK you do not seem to have given a lot of thought to this

Back on the cult mentality again I see? Nobody speak out against brexit, otherwise you hate your country.

 

[BobKowalski]

I think you will find that the person that pays the bills usually calls the shots. And that is Germany in the EUs instance.

In phase 1 it was Dublin that called the shots. For it to happen Dublin needed to be convinced not Berlin or Paris.

Dublin will have a huge say in phase 2 as will Spain given it gets to call the shots on Gibraltar.

 

[journolud]

Do you have a Gif or Meme that effectively portrays someone that sadly limps along craving the attention of someone they are obsessed with but is destined to only ever be of no importance to the object of their obsession;-)

It brings to mind that sad fucker in the film where Kevin Costner played a bodyguard - you know, the fella that was eventually proven to be innocent of planning harm to the Whitney Houston character

The Big Lebowski?

 

[mcfc1632]

Wow some right lily-livered people on this forum. The UK has to now play hardball with the EU, it is entirely correct that we will not be accepting alignment with their rules. What's the point of Brexit if that is the case. Why do you think they want us to, its simply because they actually fear a fully independent strong nation that is free of their imposed restrictions. We are not a tiny debt ridden EU country, we have plenty of cards to play in negotiations and Johnson knows this, so fair plays to him. I had my doubts he would do this but he has pleasantly surprised me. The rest of you better go and hide behind your sofa for the next year or so like you do when Dr Who is on the tv.

Nice to see some commonsense come to the thread

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

In phase 1 it was Dublin that called the shots. For it to happen Dublin needed to be convinced not Berlin or Paris.

Dublin will have a huge say in phase 2 as will Spain given it gets to call the shots on Gibraltar.

On paper yes but in reality it is always the bill payer who calls the shots and in this instance that is Mrs Merkel.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

On paper yes but in reality it is always the bill payer who calls the shots and in this instance that is Mrs Merkel.

Doesn’t work in my house.
Wish it did.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Doesn’t work in my house.
Wish it did.

Haha, love it.

 

[bluethrunthru]

You said yourself that new orders for new models would not be made for 2 or 3 years. There was no mention beyond that date. The leak to the FT specifies what could happen if there is no deal.
Think about it. Nissan will certainly not move production to the EU as Tariffs between the EU and Japan will be non existant in 7 years. So what do they do with their most efficient plant that happens to be in the UK? Closing it down is very costly compared with cashing in on a possible10% rise in EU manufactured vehicle costs in the UK. It seems entirely logical compared with the major costs of closing the plant down, especially as UK production could be exported elsewhere.

So you don't live up here and have some interesting personal theories. They are going - everyone knows it - Sunderland is shitting itself over pit villages v2 "the second destruction".

 

[Saddleworth2]

Agreed.
But what we’re talking about is if English nationalist parties canvassed for a referendum.
The truth is the Tories and other mainstream parties would never go for it.
They would also be in the minority.
Considering there are no MPs of that persuasion in the Commons at the moment I think you are miles away from that happening.

If England truly wanted to be an independent country the Tory party would embrace it faster than you can say John Bull. Anything to keep them in power.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Thank fuck we have people in positions of influence that work hard and don't need to take every self-serving opportunity to speak to cameras

We should all be pleased

unelected people in positions of influence is what I assume you meant - I mean nobody in their right mind would think unelected is a bad thing surely? I am sure you are happy that people with influence on hOw we are governed need not be elected?

 

[west didsblue]

Back on the cult mentality again I see? Nobody speak out against brexit, otherwise you hate your country.

Very Trumpian.
He’s just trying to provoke a reaction.

 

[mcfc1632]

Not really mate but I'm sure i'll survive ok :-)

Haven't seen much evidence of a Johnson super negotiating strategy yet. He was talking pre-packaged the other days which smacked of 'you propose something and we will tell you why we don't like it'. Early days though.

Indeed - this is all just 'manoeuvres' but it does provide me with a feeling of increased confidence in the UK approach

 

[BobKowalski]

On paper yes but in reality it is always the bill payer who calls the shots and in this instance that is Mrs Merkel.

No. It was Dublin. I get you guys have difficulty accepting the bleeding obvious but Johnson held crunch talks with Varadkar not Merkel. We spent nearly three years fannying about thinking Merkel was going to fold on the backstop until it dawned on Johnson during that infamous phone conversation with the lady in question that it wasn’t going to happen and that she would back Dublin and if we wanted a solution we had to convince Dublin.

Dublin will have a big say in phase 2 because the new NI custom protocols will form a big part of discussions and have to be operational by January. In fact Johnson to get a deal not only has to convince the EU commission but 27 other Govts whereas the EU only has to convince Johnson. What do you imagine is easier? Persuading one man under a self imposed deadline or 27 Govts? France and Spain on fishing. Dublin and its new border. Spain and Gibraltar. And our fabled charm offensive didn’t get much beyond day two.

 

[BlueAnorak]

In phase 1 it was Dublin that called the shots. For it to happen Dublin needed to be convinced not Berlin or Paris.

Dublin will have a huge say in phase 2 as will Spain given it gets to call the shots on Gibraltar.

Yep Irish beef exports to the UK really put Ireland in control.

Indeed - this is all just 'manoeuvres' but it does provide me with a feeling of increased confidence in the UK approach

Yes, May, Hammond and Robin's just surrendered on day one and didn't stand up for anything. Agreeing to payments that were not linked to a successful trade deal was another disaster too. Fortunately the repayment terms that came out over the weekend conclude well into the future so they weren't totally stupid.

 

[BobKowalski]

Yep Irish beef exports to the UK really put Ireland in control.

And this is why in three years we have gone from a ‘great new deal with all the benefits like frictionless trade and none of the obligations’ to accepting there will be trade barriers and a nice new internal customs border in our own Union. And we paid £39 billion for the privilege.

You guys endlessly point out Brexit isn’t about trade and you endlessly predict that 27 other nations will do what we want because of...trade. How many times did ‘trade’ persuade the EU to retreat from its three core demands in the Withdrawal Agreement?

 

[mcfc1632]

no our real leverage will be that as if 11pm Friday we became one of the eu’s biggest export market right on its doorstep. It will give us a fair trade agreement not because it’s being nice to us , but because it is in the countries and companies based in the eu interest to do so.

the citizens , businesses and countries within the eu are better off with a FTA with the UK than not and that’s why I am confident we will get a deal that is in the best interests of both unions.

It really isn't difficult is it?

 

[mcfc1632]

The EU has had huge advantages in negotiations up to this point but that will change.

Firstly, all previous negotiations have been held in Brussels whereas now they will alternate between London & Brussels.

As time went on and May firstly backed off from no deal is better than a bad deal and then she was effectively a minority government with a Remain Parliament ruling the roost the EU could afford to take the view that Brexit would never actually happen. You had the bizarre situation of British politicians going to Brussels to agree tactics in order to block Brexit. What a gift that was for the EU.

Johnson has an 80 majority (in practice 88 seats) and an iron grip on the Conservative Party. All the Lib Dem Europhiles have been binned and no faction will have the means to challenge him. This means he can decide what tactics and negotiating stance he wants to adopt and they will only change if he chooses to alter them.

All this is exactly as it should be. If you are entering a tough set of negotiations then you need to have laser focus.

Yep - it positions us in a much stronger position than previously

Let's hope we have experienced professionals backed up by determined and robust leadership