COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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i think the virus is having a bigger impact on financial markets and trade and global growth and GDP and all things financial than is is on human health.

More people will die of heart attacks and strokes than of influenza at this rate as a result of governments through the media and WHO spruiking this virus.
 
mancity1 said:
i think the virus is having a bigger impact on financial markets and trade and global growth and GDP and all things financial than is is on human health.

More people will die of heart attacks and strokes than of influenza at this rate as a result of governments through the media and WHO spruiking this virus.
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you can add severe stress to that list, many small businesses around the world may hit the wall faster than at the rate seen in the 2008 financial crash if travel restrictions are imposed for a prolonged period.
 
mancity1 said:
i think the virus is having a bigger impact on financial markets and trade and global growth and GDP and all things financial than is is on human health.

More people will die of heart attacks and strokes than of influenza at this rate as a result of governments through the media and WHO spruiking this virus.
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It could be, or it could be the CDC and WHO have more information about the actual human impact and so believe this response is necessary.

As I have said earlier in the thread, many raise Swine Flu, Bird Flu, and SARS as examples of “outsized” responses from the global health community. But most public health researchers will tell you that it only *seems* that way in retrospective and that the aggressive and comprehensive response was the main contributor to none of them being especially destructive pandemics.

It is always like this — humans by-and-large place much more value in responding to and mitigating/eliminating crises than preventing the crises from happening entirely. That is partly due to our still fairly primitive cognitive biases but also due to it being much more difficult to identify when we have done what is necessary to prevent things from happening at all. It is much easier to react than prevent.

And, again, not taking the outbreak seriously could potentially have the same or worse impact on the global economy than taking the sort of action being advised right now. China took the action they felt was necessary based on what they were seeing on the ground, the WHO has commended them for the action, but that response will still hurt the world economy.

It’s a matter of optimising outcomes and properly assessing opportunity costs, and the global health organisations are likely better positioned to do both than those on here.
 
mancity1 said:
i think the virus is having a bigger impact on financial markets and trade and global growth and GDP and all things financial than is is on human health.

More people will die of heart attacks and strokes than of influenza at this rate as a result of governments through the media and WHO spruiking this virus.
Click to expand...
as soon as the WHO declair a pandemic millions will be wiped off stocks, im pretty sure this is the reason that its not been anounced,,i tend to agree and if the media had not been on it like they are it would have just been another form of influenza however i have a feeling their is something a little more sinister with this,i was reading an article today which was saying its mutated in Italy, i do get the feeling that were not totaly briefed up,maybe to stop panic buying and the economy from collapsing, after all they have form about lying, trust your family unit and nothing further than that
 
AlgarveBlu said:
you can add severe stress to that list, many small businesses around the world may hit the wall faster than at the rate seen in the 2008 financial crash if travel restrictions are imposed for a prolonged period.
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Can't disagree with that , local trade here in oz for example is very dependant on small business which employs over half the population. Many of them have only 3-6 months lead time before they would shut down.

We need a better strategy for pandemics world wide to support local trade but these things are a small reminder I hope of globalisation and some of its pitfalls.

other than mental diseases , financial stress is a big hit on the suicide rates throughout the world.

those that rely on the next two weeks income to make ends meet in a steady but relatively low income job even with little debt will really feel the pinch if the pandemic lasts as long as its predicted to this time around.
 
marco said:
as soon as the WHO declair a pandemic millions will be wiped off stocks, im pretty sure this is the reason that its not been anounced,,i tend to agree and if the media had not been on it like they are it would have just been another form of influenza however i have a feeling their is something a little more sinister with this,i was reading an article today which was saying its mutated in Italy, i do get the feeling that were not totaly briefed up,maybe to stop panic buying and the economy from collapsing, after all they have form about lying, trust your family unit and nothing further than that
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FTSE 100 has lost 152 billion in value in the last 4 days alone on the escalation
 
mancity1 said:
Can't disagree with that , local trade here in oz for example is very dependant on small business which employs over half the population. Many of them have only 3-6 months lead time before they would shut down.

We need a better strategy for pandemics world wide to support local trade but these things are a small reminder I hope of globalisation and some of its pitfalls.

other than mental diseases , financial stress is a big hit on the suicide rates throughout the world.

those that rely on the next two weeks income to make ends meet in a steady but relatively low income job even with little debt will really feel the pinch if the pandemic lasts as long as its predicted to this time around.
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All reasonable points.

I tend to agree with a few that have said the current response is, ironically (and possibly problematically), likely geared toward limiting the impact to the economy (at least initially).
 
George Hannah said:
A Chinese gift to the West
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No doubt the next big geo political tension will be between China and the West which will last a lot longer than this disease.

China have been allowed to stamp economic dominance in Australia both internally , particularly internally and externally over the past 30 years in agriculture, property , tourism , mining and the list goes on , next they will look at political domination to assist with their plan to rule without using traditional warfare.
 
marco said:
sorry mate, i ment trillions not millions,read somewhere 13 trillion would be wiped off when its declaied pandemic,not quite sure how true but going off your figures its probably right
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that would render the 50 biggest companies in the US worthless and then some by my reckoning on market cap so that might be a little over the top but at this rate a another 20 per cent off the peak is probable which would still mean the DOW is well above 2016 levels but a number of small businesses will go under.
 
mancity1 said:
that would render the 50 biggest companies in the US worthless and then some by my reckoning on market cap so that might be a little over the top but at this rate a another 20 per cent off the peak is probable which would still mean the DOW is well above 2016 levels but a number of small businesses will go under.
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Fairly sure he was referencing a pan-market forecast.

As it is, there are already conservative projections for a 0.5-1% shave off the Chinese GDP and a 0.1-0.3% hit to the global GDP (depending on which analyses you review) just based on the current state of China/global disruption and recent company revenues projection guidance (which have generally been adjusted down).

From my professional opinion, I think it will actually be more substantial than that when all is said and done, but we won’t be able to say that with any certainty for quite awhile.

I agree, it will be devastating for many of us in the world, especially given the global economy and fiscal systems were soft to begin with, so any downturn (for any reason) was likely to be even worse than 2008.
 
I think we'll cope very well
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