COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[ChicagoBlue]

It absolutely does.

Back up what you’re saying. Rather than just posting “bollocks” as you’re worried about your job and want to feel better by pretending it’s not as serious as it patently is.

I’m absolutely NOT worried about my job. I could retire today. Tomorrow would make it a better retirement, though!

And, here you go...

From Business Insider:

South Korea has tested more than 140,000 people for the new coronavirus and confirmed more than 6,000 cases. Its fatality rate is around 0.6%.
(Largest sample of an “open” society)
This suggests that, as many health experts have predicted, the virus' fatality rate seems to decrease as more cases are reported.
That's because more widespread testing leads more mild cases to be included in the count.
The US, by contrast, has tested around 1,500 people. The country has 221 confirmed cases and 12 deaths, suggesting a death rate of 5%.
The US' testing capacity has been limited.

The US and South Korea announced their first cases of the coronavirus on the same day: January 20. More than six weeks later, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tested around 1,500 people for the virus. South Korea, meanwhile, has tested about 140,000.

####

Politics is making the numbers look WORSE, even as it wants the numbers to look better!

Next, Trump will be touting the SK numbers, while STILL restricting the testing in the USA to keep US numbers lower than actual!

 

[SWP's back]

I’m absolutely NOT worried about my job. I could retire today. Tomorrow would make it a better retirement, though!

And, here you go...

From Business Insider:

South Korea has tested more than 140,000 people for the new coronavirus and confirmed more than 6,000 cases. Its fatality rate is around 0.6%.
(Largest sample of an “open” society)
This suggests that, as many health experts have predicted, the virus' fatality rate seems to decrease as more cases are reported.
That's because more widespread testing leads more mild cases to be included in the count.
The US, by contrast, has tested around 1,500 people. The country has 221 confirmed cases and 12 deaths, suggesting a death rate of 5%.
The US' testing capacity has been limited.

The US and South Korea announced their first cases of the coronavirus on the same day: January 20. More than six weeks later, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tested around 1,500 people for the virus. South Korea, meanwhile, has tested about 140,000.

####

Politics is making the numbers look WORSE, even as it wants the numbers to look better!

Next, Trump will be touting the SK numbers, while STILL restricting the testing in the USA to keep US numbers lower than actual!

So you're basing everything off South Korea's numbers.

South Korea currently has 42 dead and 108 recovered, with 6,134 confirmed (but neither dead nor recovered) so we have no idea how those cases will turn up (and obviously 140,000 tested which brought back 134,000 negative test results).

Either way, when I am quoting WHO and CDC, you can't just call it bollocks. I'll stick with them over Business Insider for now.

 

[andyhinch]

I’m absolutely NOT worried about my job. I could retire today. Tomorrow would make it a better retirement, though!

And, here you go...

From Business Insider:

South Korea has tested more than 140,000 people for the new coronavirus and confirmed more than 6,000 cases. Its fatality rate is around 0.6%.
(Largest sample of an “open” society)
This suggests that, as many health experts have predicted, the virus' fatality rate seems to decrease as more cases are reported.
That's because more widespread testing leads more mild cases to be included in the count.
The US, by contrast, has tested around 1,500 people. The country has 221 confirmed cases and 12 deaths, suggesting a death rate of 5%.
The US' testing capacity has been limited.

The US and South Korea announced their first cases of the coronavirus on the same day: January 20. More than six weeks later, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tested around 1,500 people for the virus. South Korea, meanwhile, has tested about 140,000.

####

Politics is making the numbers look WORSE, even as it wants the numbers to look better!

Next, Trump will be touting the SK numbers, while STILL restricting the testing in the USA to keep US numbers lower than actual!

Global mortality rates appear to range from around 1% to 6% going up to 9% for the over 80’s which obviously bumps the average up. Only time will tell how it all plays out.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

I’m not sure how helpful it is of Italy to announce they’re locking down regions before they’ve actually implemented some control. Most are just going to leave before it starts.

Its being reported there was a mad rush to get the last trains out of Padua.

from a selfish point of view this latest action is going to save me a wedge of money.
I was scheduled to go to Venice for 5 days in a couple of weeks.
I already cancelled the hotel at no cost.
Now the flight will be refunded and my pre booked theatre and transport tickets.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

So you're basing everything off South Korea's numbers.

South Korea currently has 42 dead and 108 recovered, with 6,134 confirmed (but neither dead nor recovered) so we have no idea how those cases will turn up (and obviously 140,000 tested which brought back 134,000 negative test results).

Either way, when I am quoting WHO and CDC, you can't just call it bollocks. I'll stick with them over Business Insider for now.

You asked, I answered. Take the results for what they’re worth.CDC and WHO are including some poor stats, which you clearly see for yourself...but you can hide behind them if you so choose.

I’ll take the largest sample size and results, as opposed to the places where we only really know about the 20%!

 

[andyhinch]

You asked, I answered. Take the results for what they’re worth.CDC and WHO are including some poor stats, which you clearly see for yourself...but you can hide behind them if you so choose.

I’ll take the largest sample size and results, as opposed to the places where we only really know about the 20%!

I think 0.6% mortality rate is very optimistic, if I was spread betting I’d put my money on between 2% and 3% as a mean average.

 

[Franny's toilet roll]

I have a friend living in a small village in Northern Italy. She's 61, suffers from COPD. Her village has just been declared a red zone. Very worrying, seems to be thinning out the old ones fairly quickly

 

[urban genie]

What I also don’t understand is Myanmar haven’t any according to the data, yet I flew into Manchester from Zurich today and on both sides they had it listed as a self-isolation destination - as in quarantine yourself if you’ve been and show symptoms.

Burma is run by a secrative military junta and a duplicitous fucker in Ang Sang, so no suprise if they lie about what is happening there only reporting the cost to their economy.
Brunei is the same the sultanate is very secraticive and is the only other member of ASEAN saying their is no cases
Laos has confirmed suspected cases but not in large numbers, but then that, and posibly with burma is because large areas are scarcley populated as a lot of the land is still jungle and mountain so the spread though mass numbers will be slower.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

I think 0.6% mortality rate is very optimistic, if I was spread betting I’d put my money on between 2% and 3% as a mean average.

To be quite honest we will NEVER know! With China being the epicenter, that will skew any and all results. The fact that 80% of the infected may never even know they had it, etc, etc, etc...means we CAN never know, unless everyone gets tested, and that’s simply not going to happen.

Hopefully, 80% is also a vast under estimation of those who are asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic, such that it is a “normal” flu reaction. FWIW, the 70 yr old man in my town that had it said it was LESS SEVERE than the regular flu, and he was not exactly the picture of health in his normal life.

Fingers crossed we don’t all go mental and this passes, as usual.

 

[andyhinch]

To be quite honest we will NEVER know! With China being the epicenter, that will skew any and all results. The fact that 80% of the infected may never even know they had it, etc, etc, etc...means we CAN never know, unless everyone gets tested, and that’s simply not going to happen.

Hopefully, 80% is also a vast under estimation of those who are asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic, such that it is a “normal” flu reaction. FWIW, the 70 yr old man in my town that had it said it was LESS SEVERE than the regular flu, and he was not exactly the picture of health in his normal life.

Fingers crossed we don’t all go mental and this passes, as usual.

It also appears to be more aggressive with health professionals, I assume this is down to higher exposure rates, as you say we’ll never know the exact figures.

 

[SWP's back]

You asked, I answered. Take the results for what they’re worth.CDC and WHO are including some poor stats, which you clearly see for yourself...but you can hide behind them if you so choose.

I’ll take the largest sample size and results, as opposed to the places where we only really know about the 20%!

The largest sample size is the meta analysis of all known cases.

You’re doing the opposite of taking the largest sample size. You’re taking 6,000 cases from the 103,000 known and confirmed cases.

And I’m not “hiding” behind anything, I’m quoting the WHO. You know, the agency running and advising the world’s response to the pandemic.

 

[Bluetopia]

Its being reported there was a mad rush to get the last trains out of Padua.

from a selfish point of view this latest action is going to save me a wedge of money.
I was scheduled to go to Venice for 5 days in a couple of weeks.
I already cancelled the hotel at no cost.
Now the flight will be refunded and my pre booked theatre and transport tickets.

Same here dlbh, I had 2 trips to Milan and Bergamo planned and paid for, now I get my money back. Was going to see friends in Bergamo plus watch Atalanta again each time, disappointed yes, but feel for the people and friends caught up in this over there.

 

[Bluetopia]

I have a friend living in a small village in Northern Italy. She's 61, suffers from COPD. Her village has just been declared a red zone. Very worrying, seems to be thinning out the old ones fairly quickly

Its happening all around the world and here too, though mostly not counted as covid-19, winter flu pneumonia etc

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

Because China aren’t known to always be truthful with their stated figures (of anything).

Indeed! Their economy has been growing at 7% since time began......according to them!

You don’t lock down a 1/3 of your country on the back of a flu outbreak. It reflects the seriousness of the situation in Italy.

The Italians are doing the right thing. Meanwhile we are washing our hands singing Happy Birthday and allowing people to mix in large numbers left right and centre.

Cheltenham Festival next week.

 

[SWP's back]

Indeed! Their economy has been growing at 7% since time began......according to them!

You don’t lock down a 1/3 of your country on the back of a flu outbreak. It reflects the seriousness of the situation in Italy.

The Italians are doing the right thing. Meanwhile we are washing our hands singing Happy Birthday and allowing people to mix in large numbers left right and centre.

Cheltenham Festival next week.

Yeah but someone recovered and it wasn’t as bad as the flu for him so everything’s fine. Governments are always quarantining 20% of their population with the economic impact that brings for a bad cold.

 

[urban genie]

I always though nuclear war would destroy western civilisation.

Not a lack of toilet roll

 

[AlgarveBlu]

Scenes of people rushing to catch the last trains out of Lombardy, health system there will collapse I suspect and watch the bottom fall out of the markets on the open on Monday. Surely Serie A season has to e cancelled now?

 

[Bluetopia]

Indeed! Their economy has been growing at 7% since time began......according to them!

You don’t lock down a 1/3 of your country on the back of a flu outbreak. It reflects the seriousness of the situation in Italy.

The Italians are doing the right thing. Meanwhile we are washing our hands singing Happy Birthday and allowing people to mix in large numbers left right and centre.

Cheltenham Festival next week.

Its far far bigger than the govt will let on, definately a D notice on this....

 

[ChicagoBlue]

The largest sample size is the meta analysis of all known cases.

You’re doing the opposite of taking the largest sample size. You’re taking 6,000 cases from the 103,000 known and confirmed cases.

And I’m not “hiding” behind anything, I’m quoting the WHO. You know, the agency running and advising the world’s response to the pandemic.

Like I said.

The WHO is mixing poor, incomplete statistics with the most accurate, largest sample size, highest level of tested population. I’m not saying conglomeration of all data is a bad thing, only that one needs to understand what the numbers say and mean are not always the same thing.

 

[urban genie]

18 confirmed cases in manchester.

Is it time to close schools and collages and the universities for a fortnight just as a precaution?