COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Some colleagues of mine were supposed to go to SXSW - one to host a talk. Gutting for them but what can you do when the decision isn’t yours.

It also seems I spoke too soon, as of this afternoon I’ve been told to WFH on Friday as a practise. Ha.
Brother- and sister-in-law are in a band touring the US and had a marquee show at SXSW. They’re also seeing a few of the venues for their upcoming shows cancelling, with more expected.
 
Bit of both but largely due to the fact that at its epicentre it seems to be contracting at pace and 56.1 cases per 1 million people have had it in total and the vast majority have recovered. Apply that in the UK with 60 million and i make that 3,600 people. Only 26 new cases in China yesterday. We are all mixing a little less hopefully washing hands etc and we have a first class NHS plus it is getting warmer soon and i think that will impact it.

Plus i have read a bit about Flu seasons ending and they do tend to abate in warmer weather.

Is it ok with you if i have that opinion or do you insist i change it?

I will tell John Nichols you dont agree with him too and you know best as always.

John Nicholls, a pathology professor at the University of Hong Kong, told financial investors on a conference call last week that he expected the virus to "burn itself out" with increased temperatures. He predicted the threat could subside by May, according to a transcript of the call that was leaked online.
Have to agree Worsley. These things tend to dissipate come the warm weather. Is it more than coincidence that numbers of new infections have dropped dramatically as the weather warms up in China. How much of that is down to the isolation measures imposed by their government is I guess also unknown.
 
While the government fanny about the less people will have confidence and many will stop going out to shopping centres and some will even avoid sports games.
So the economy is gonna suffer pre lock down anyway

Better to do a sharp drastic measure to contain and then get the economy back on it's feet quicker.

My workplace has been quiet as students are not coming in


On another note just watched trump, what a tool
 
Brother- and sister-in-law are in a band touring the US and had a marquee show at SXSW. They’re also seeing a few of the venues for their upcoming shows cancelling, with more expected.
It’s going to impact the local economy massively. SXSW is massive for the area.

A friend also has a trip to Coachella planned. That doesn’t seem likely either.
 
I have to say the last couple of days have been encouraging. Yes, the numbers are still increasing rapidly around the globe, but in several cases, the increases are less than we would expect if this was to follow pure exponential growth. +52 cases in the UK (up from 321) is only a 17% increase. Similar yesterday. This is much better than the 30%, 40% or 50% type figures we've seen over the preceding few days.

Of course 2 swallows do not make a summer. But it at least gives hope that perhaps the measures people are taking are starting to have an effect. I have not personally been into London for a couple of weeks now, but colleagues are saying that it is eerily quiet, in the streets and on the tube in particular. If people are staying at home more, mixing less, then hopefully perhaps the rate of increase not accelerating as fast.

17% daily increases as opposed to the previous average of circa 35% would make a HUGE difference.

By end of March:

@ +17% daily = 373 * 1.17 ^^ 21 = 10,000 cases

@ +35% daily = 373 * 1.35 ^^ 21 = 200,000 cases

Which if nothing else, only goes to show just how vital it is that we take this very seriously and EVERYONE changes their behaviour, washing more, not shaking hands, not eating (sandwiches for example) with your fingers unless you've washed your hands thoroughly, not going out as much, driving rather than going in the train. Etc. All of these combined WILL make a huge difference.

EDIT: Spain is out of control I see. Huge increases the last couple of days would tend to indicate Spanish people are not taking it as seriously as they should and are just carrying on as normal.
Why not eating sandwiches with your hands?
Do you mean home made or shop bought, both?
 
It’s going to impact the local economy massively. SXSW is massive for the area.

A friend also has a trip to Coachella planned. That doesn’t seem likely either.
Absolutely. I actually talked about this is in some detail in an earlier post after doing some research on SXSW (prompted by a long discussion with my brother-in-law and their band manager, who is struggling to manage things right now). Unfortunately, Mother Nature seems to really be going at them specifically, as their plight was compounded by a mass car accident caused by ice and fog while the were driving between cities last week.

South by Southwest... but you’re not far off of what actually happens there.

But @FogBlueInSanFran is right, it’s the near equivalent of cancelling Glastonbury a week before it’s set to open.

My brother- and sister-in-law are in an up-and-coming band touring the US right now and, on top of being involved in a horrific 100 car accident in Wyoming that saw several people killed (although they are all mostly ok) and their tour coach smashed, and facing the prospect of many of their upcoming tour dates being cancelled due to virus responses, their marquee time slot at SXSW — that was going to give them quite a lot of exposure to bigger label agents and a decent junk of their annual income — has now obviously been sacked off.

The festival is actually the source of a large portion of the annual revenue for the tourist/service industry in Austin, Texas, were it happens each year, not to mention the various mid-to-small vendors that scaled operations for the festival, many of whom are now in the shit with merchandise they won’t be able to shift, at least not quickly and for the dosh they were expecting. It’s their Black Friday of sorts.

And this, of course, is just one of the minor impacts of the public health response, which is absolutely needed (as I have said on here quite a few times), but still has a very real impact on people’s livelihoods. There are many more serious negative economic impacts — I am just describing this one in detail as I was talking to my brother-in-law and their band manager about it yesterday, and it prompted me to do a bit of research on the festival and the general reaction to it being cancelled. Their manager is absolutely struggling to keep up with all of the upcoming venue notices of possible or confirmed cancellations due to the virus response, as well as the fall out from that horrible accident, which includes my sister-in-law, who suffers from depression and anxiety disorders, having serious difficult moving past it as she was driving at the time the accident happened. From the pictures and videos it really was a horrific ordeal for all involved, but they had to work to just get on with the tour as they need the money, especially as they now need to make up any losses from the coach being all but written off and having the rent one for the remainder of the now curtailed tour.

It is but one example of why governments have been so slow to respond, as they are in a terrible position: restrict the response to limit the impact to the economy (as a downturn would hurt people around the world) but potentially allow the virus to then spread, due huge amounts of harm (including killing the most vulnerable), and potentially destroy the economy anyway or launch a comprehensive response that helps limit the spread of the virus and the harm it causes but also negatively impacting the economy which will have cascading effects over time that will also do real harm to people (and have an overall impact on health in its own way).

They are very much damned if they do and damned if they don’t. I just personally advocate for preventing as much direct, immediate harm to people first, and solve the problems that arise from that later. And that comes from someone trained and working in the economics field — my humanist side overrides the cold, calculating one.
 
Big up to all doctors and nurses out there on the front line by the way. This was shot by a doctor in Cremona when this nurse nodded off after crying at the end of her grueling night shift.

infermieraz-kbbH-U31701156173865L4H-656x492@Corriere-Web-Sezioni.jpg
 
Big up to all doctors and nurses out there on the front line by the way. This was shot by a doctor in Cremona when this nurse nodded off after crying at the end of her grueling night shift.

infermieraz-kbbH-U31701156173865L4H-656x492@Corriere-Web-Sezioni.jpg
Fuck me, I am not sure there is anything much more depressing than someone being so physically, emotional, and mentally drained as to fall asleep whilst weeping.

Most all medical professionals are and will be putting in truly Herculean efforts and deserve all (and any) support we can give them.
 
What, like new viruses, never seen on planet earth before? Comforting. Hope is not a strategy, by the way, but yes we can hope.
That's an optimists point of view as opposed to yours chippy.

Can I ask would you stop all public gatherings in the UK? I'm not so sure. But I would have stoped all flights from Italy a few days ago.
 
Big up to all doctors and nurses out there on the front line by the way. This was shot by a doctor in Cremona when this nurse nodded off after crying at the end of her grueling night shift.

infermieraz-kbbH-U31701156173865L4H-656x492@Corriere-Web-Sezioni.jpg
That's me most afternoons at work if no one's about.
 
Why not eating sandwiches with your hands?
Do you mean home made or shop bought, both?

I didn't mean sandwiches specifically, nor where you got them. But if you are out and about and have not had chance to actually wash your hands thoroughly (and even then) then eating with your fingers is IMO a bad idea. I have no evidence for this, but it just seems to stand to reason that if you might have virus on your hands, you don't want them anywhere near your mouth.
 
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